A programming note: my colleagues and I have just completed a new study on changing
California precipitation extremes, and the associated paper will be released in late April.
Not exact matches
Daniel Swain and colleagues model how the frequency of these rapid, year - to - year transitions from
extreme dry to wet conditions — which they dub «
precipitation whiplash events» — may change in
California's future as a consequence of man - made warming.
Even though the cold in the U.S. has not been unprecedented, the public perception is «
extreme» because the cold in the central / eastern / southeastern U.S., drought in
California, and the heat / heavy
precipitation in Alaska has been so prolonged.
Without El Niño and La Niña feeding into the climate model, the frequency of
extreme precipitation in
California stayed constant for the simulation's century and a half.
This post was originally published on this site Today the journal Nature Climate Change published results of a groundbreaking paper that explores the changing character of
precipitation extremes in
California.
«Even though
California historically has periods of dry and wet years, there isn't an analog for climate
extremes like the ones we've observed in recent years, such as those record - breaking prolonged periods of drought following by periods of intense
precipitation pulses that cause flooding,» Woodburn said.
It turns out that the big story about
precipitation in
California has to do with
extremes.
Swain and a team of three other researchers from Stanford, Northwestern and Columbia universities looked at data between 1949 and 2015 to see if there were any trends in the kinds of atmospheric patterns that historically resulted in meteorological
extremes in
California in terms of both temperature and
precipitation.
Investigates northeastern Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically (1949 — 2015) been associated with cool - season (October - May)
precipitation and temperature
extremes in
California
Given the known influence of temperature on drought, the fact that the 2012 — 2014 record drought severity has co-occurred with record statewide warmth (7) raises the question of whether long - term warming has altered the probability that
precipitation deficits yield
extreme drought in
California.
Given that the ongoing
California drought encompasses the most
extreme 12 - mo
precipitation deficit on record (8) and that both temperature and many drought indicators reached their most
extreme historical values for
California in July 2014 (7)(Fig. 1 and Figs.
Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal
precipitation and temperature
extremes in
California
The increasingly
extreme behavior of
precipitation in
California — which could very well occur without much of a change in
California's overall average
precipitation — may increase the risk of both drought and flood events in the state.
A large ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the frequency of
extreme wet - to - dry
precipitation events will increase by 25 % to 100 % across
California due to anthropogenic forcing.
The hope in
California is that the large amounts of
precipitation usually associated with
extreme El Niño events would lessen the impacts of the state's multi-year drought by partly refilling reservoirs and groundwater, even as scientists caution that this might not happen to the degree needed to alter the present situation.