Changes in cloud cover do not offer an explanation for a cooling stratosphere.
«GeoFlynx says: June 8, 2010 at 11:45 am
Changes in cloud cover do not offer an explanation for a cooling stratosphere.
Not exact matches
Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and wave just compound this unpredictability:
changes in local
cloud cover, wind speed and the like produce irregular peaks and troughs that
do not necessarily correspond with spikes
in demand.
«The only thing that they showed that we didn't look at is
changes in cloud cover and atmospheric moisture trends,» she said.
On the possibility of a
changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming
in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
And that is the simple case: knowing the
change in cloud cover, which is addressed
in the featured paper, is even harder, but it is important as well — don't you agree, and if not why not?
So if there were, say, a decadal - scale 1 % -2 % reduction
in cloud cover that allowed more SW radiation to penetrate into the ocean (as has been observed since the 1980s),
do you think this would have an impact of greater magnitude on the heat
in the oceans than a
change of, say, +10 ppm (0.00001)
in the atmospheric CO2 concentration?
Can
changes in air temperature or
cloud cover account for that much heat, or
do we need to consider ocean currents?
As Roy Spencer points out, it doesn't take much of a
change in cloud cover to account for global warming due to increased insolation * at the ocean surface *.
Relatively small
changes in cloud cover and its distribution could
do this, for example.
In short, the «skeptic» hypothesis that changes in cloud cover due to internal variability are driving global warming does not hold up when compared to the observational dat
In short, the «skeptic» hypothesis that
changes in cloud cover due to internal variability are driving global warming does not hold up when compared to the observational dat
in cloud cover due to internal variability are driving global warming
does not hold up when compared to the observational data.
But all those glaciers, sea ice and desert / grasslands and a -6 W / m2 increase
in low
cloud cover (IPCC feedback estimates)
do not result
in Zero Albedo
change.
Variations
in clouds cover do not necessary produce
changes in global temperature.
These samples unambiguously showed that
cloud cover does not show any widespread anomalous variations following statistically significant
changes in the TSI flux, the CR flux or a proxy for extreme UV activity within a 20 - day lag period.
The same for the solar cycle, see Fig. 1
in http://folk.uio.no/jegill/papers/2002GL015646.pdf Quite huge reaction of
cloud cover on TOA solar
changes, but what
does that say about longer term trends?
Moreover, the uncertainty as such doesn't negate that climate
change over the last many decades is 100 % anthropogenic
in nature — unless you can point to some non-anthropogenic factor that causes
cloud cover to
change in a way that would cause warming.
Berkeley Lab researchers Dev Millstein and Surabi Menon found that atmospheric feedback — such as
changes in cloud cover or precipitation —
does have an important effect, resulting
in different amounts of cooling
in different cities, but that cool roofs and pavements are still beneficial for combating global warming.
When you plot observational sea ice data to satellite measurements of albedo you should be able to verify the actual impact, thus your arguments
in regard to albedo
changes (or
cloud cover)
in time and space might be interesting but doesn't
change the general assumptions, the observations.