Over the next two years
Chinese household consumption will continue declining as a share of GDP.
Not exact matches
First, because they represented a transfer from net savers to net borrowers, they helped to exacerbate the split between the growth in
household income (
households are net savers) and the growth in GDP (which is generated by net borrowers), and so led directly to the extraordinary imbalance in the
Chinese economy in which
consumption, as a share of GDP, has declined to perhaps the lowest level ever recorded in history.
First, substantial direct or indirect wealth transfers from the state sector to
Chinese households will unleash a surge in
household consumption as
household income rises (and because the interest on bank deposits is an important source of income for most middle and lower middle class
households, if the authorities reduce interest rates, as struggling borrowers are demanding, China actually moves in the wrong direction).
At the same time unemployment will rise, which will partially reduce the savings rate, but worried
Chinese households with jobs will cut back on
consumption, which will increase the savings rate.
The only certain and politically feasible source of debt - free demand is domestic
household consumption, but
Chinese households suffer from the same problem Marriner Eccles identified in the US in the 1930s: those who want to spend do not have the resources, and those who have the resources do not want to spend — or in this case are not able to spend productively.
In the case of China, for example, whatever GDP growth turns out to be, and again this is just arithmetic,
Chinese household income growth will be higher and investment growth lower — after nearly thirty years of the reverse relationship — so that the impact of slower growth will be disproportionately smaller on
consumption growth and larger on investment growth.
But many thousands back home in Australia are enjoying the greater opportunities from a
Chinese economy that is more diverse, where
household consumption plays a much larger part.»
«Increasing
consumption in urbanising China has been identified as an important driver of
household carbon footprints over the last 20 years due to the growing urban population and incomes, while decreasing carbon intensity of the
Chinese economy only weakly dampens these trends,» the study says.