Sentences with phrase «climate model projections compared»

I have been looking at the histogram of the models spread compared to observational means at the bottom of the Climate Model Projections Compared to Observations page as the definitive way to look at the question of how the models are performing.

When I look at Gavin's Climate Model Projections Compared to Observations page I don't see it.

Not exact matches

Various global temperature projections by mainstream climate scientists and models, and by climate contrarians, compared to observations by NASA GISS.

Leung emphasized the estimate's conservativeness, noting that the climate projections of warming devised by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Center for Atmospheric Research are on the low end compared to most other models.

It describes some of the recent drought conditions, compares observed drought and modeled drought conditions from 1950 (observed was roughly 20 %) to 2000 (observed was roughly 30 %), then makes projections based upon climate models and the business as usual SRES A2 scenario where roughly 50 % of the world's land will be experiencing drought by 2100 at any given time.

Now to compare the accuracy of that projection vs global climate models that ignore the PDO.

Second, we compared projections centered 80 years from now (2070 — 2099) from two global climate models with higher and lower sensitivities to atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varClimate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varclimate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.

Citing the work of Dr. John Christy and Richard McNider at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), which compared climate model projections with temperatures measured independently by satellites and weather balloons, he said «the average warming predicted to have occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times larger than what is being observed.»

Contrary to another claim made by Betts, we are conversant with that research and have recently contributed to it by showing that climate models do accommodate recent temperature trends when the phasing of natural internal variability is taken into account — as it must be in comparing a projection to a single outcome.

After these threats are identified for each resource, then the relative risk from natural - and human - caused climate change (estimated from the global climate model projections, but also the historical, paleo - record and worst case sequences of events) can be compared with other risks in order to adopt the optimal mitigation / adaptation strategy.

> A major advance of this assessment of climate change projections compared with the TAR is the large number of simulations available from a broader range of models.

Climate projections have been remarkably difficult to constrain by comparing the simulated climatological state from different models with observations, in particular for small ensembles with structurally different models.

These studies compare a particular climate policy scenario with a reference scenario corresponding to the model projection of business as usual (BAU)-- that is, a world in which the economy continues on its current course with carbon emissions unchecked.

However the projections in the FAR were not very dependent on the spread of model sensitivites — the «best estimate» was produced by comparing model experiments with observations and scaling to infer a climate sensitivity of 2.5 ºC (2.1 ºC if compared to current 2xCO2 RF formulation).

Just a few years ago, when Rahmstorf et al. (2007) compared climate observations to computer model projections, they noticed the faster - than - expected warming leading up to 2006.

The paper then compares the global surface temperature data (with these three influences both included and removed) to the envelope of climate model temperature projections in both the 2001 and 2007 IPCC reports (Figure 2).

Dana Nuccitelli presented a talk on climate model accuracy — comparing past global temperature projections to observations, and effectively debunking associated myths.

Since most global warming concern (including that behind regulatory action) stems from the projections of climate models as to how the earth's temperature will evolve as we emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (as a result of burning fossil fuels to produce energy), it is important to keep a tab on how the model projections are faring when compared with reality.

This method weights projections by comparing their global mean surface temperature projections to those of a probabilistic simple climate model, in this case (as in Rasmussen et al., 2016) the MAGICC6 model (Meinshausen et al., 2011).

Climate simulation models have proven to be unreliable when their predictions, scenarios, projections, etc. are compared to the observed climate reaClimate simulation models have proven to be unreliable when their predictions, scenarios, projections, etc. are compared to the observed climate reaclimate realities.

Let's look in more detail at the paper's key figure, the one that looks at past and (forecast) future global temperatures, «Hindcast / forecast decadal variations in global mean temperature, as compared with observations and standard climate model projections» (click to enlarge)

The most alarming projections for global warming this century also seem to be the most reliable, according to a December study in Nature that compared climate models against what's already happening in the atmosphere (see «Global Warming's Worst - Case Projections Look Increasingly Likeprojections for global warming this century also seem to be the most reliable, according to a December study in Nature that compared climate models against what's already happening in the atmosphere (see «Global Warming's Worst - Case Projections Look Increasingly LikeProjections Look Increasingly Likely»).

None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.

Next, the magnitudes and patterns of climate change from high - end model simulations are examined and compared with the remaining projections, to see whether the behaviour of these two classes of model is very different.

Coupled with the average climate - change — driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm / y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projeclimate - change — driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm / y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projeClimate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Figure 3: Various global temperature projections by mainstream climate scientists and models, and by climate contrarians, compared to observations by NASA GISS.