My job, to steal a phrase from a
climate scientist I quoted in the
tipping points story, is to be «caustically honest» about such murkiness where it's real, and to be similarly probing when someone is trying to manufacture murkiness — as has
happened a lot in recent years in the
climate fight.
For the first time, the report includes a discussion of
climate - related «surprises,» or unanticipated changes, in which
tipping points in the Earth's systems are crossed or
climate - related extreme events
happen at the same time, creating «compound extreme events,» multiplying the potential damage and destruction.
RealClimate is wonderful, and an excellent source of reliable information.As I've said before, methane is an extremely dangerous component to global warming.Comment # 20 is correct.There is a sharp melting
point to frozen methane.A huge increase in the release of methane could
happen within the next 50 years.At what
point in the Earth's temperature rise and the rise of co2 would a huge methane melt occur?No one has answered that definitive issue.If I ask you all at what
point would huge amounts of extra methane start melting, i.e at what temperature rise of the ocean near the Artic methane ice deposits would the methane melt, or at what
point in the rise of co2 concentrations in the atmosphere would the methane melt, I believe that no one could currently tell me the actual answer as to where the sharp melting
point exists.Of course, once that
tipping point has been reached, and billions of tons of methane outgass from what had been locked stores of methane, locked away for an eternity, it is exactly the same as the burning of stored fossil fuels which have been stored for an eternity as well.And even though methane does not have as long a life as co2, while it is around in the air it can cause other
tipping points, i.e. permafrost melting, to arrive much sooner.I will reiterate what I've said before on this and other sites.Methane is a hugely underreported, underestimated risk.How about RealClimate attempts to model exactly what would
happen to other
tipping points, such as the melting permafrost, if indeed a huge increase in the melting of the methal hydrate ice WERE to occur within the next 50 years.My amateur guess is that the huge, albeit temporary, increase in methane over even three or four decades might push other relevent
tipping points to arrive much, much, sooner than they normally would, thereby vastly incresing negative feedback mechanisms.We KNOW that quick, huge, changes occured in the Earth's
climate in the past.See other relevent posts in the past from Realclimate.
Climate often does not change slowly, but undergoes huge, quick, changes periodically, due to negative feedbacks accumulating, and
tipping the
climate to a quick change.Why should the danger from huge potential methane releases be vievwed with any less trepidation?