«New Study Increases
Concerns About Climate Model Reliability.»
Not exact matches
This is not an isolated problem but one of worldwide interest because each country has
concerns about their food security.The Agricultural
Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was developed to evaluate agricultural
models and intercompare their ability to predict
climate impacts.
Statements such as «They come to believe
models are real and forget they are only
models» reveals he has never had a conversation with a
climate modeller — our
concerns about ice sheets for instance come
about precisely because we aren't yet capable of
modelling them satisfactorily.
What really
concerns me is that I've read a lot
about climate models not being able to replicate the magnitude of abrupt regional temperature changes in the past, and Raypierre has said here that he fears that past
climate records point towards some yet unknown positive feedback which might amplify warming at the northern latitudes.
What has always
concerned me
about the majority of the
climate models are reliance on prior climatology and not looking for new patterns.
However, that his statement can be quoted in a major US newspaper says much
about the level of public knowledge
concerning climate change and the
models used to try and understand it.
• Lack of formal
model verification & validation, which is the norm for engineering and regulatory science • Circularity in arguments validating
climate models against observations, owing to tuning & prescribed boundary conditions •
Concerns about fundamental lack of predictability in a complex nonlinear system characterized by spatio - temporal chaos with changing boundary conditions •
Concerns about the epistemology of
models of open, complex systems
I find
concerned liberals are loath to talk
about how consistently wrong
climate models have been or
about the «pause» in global warming that has gone on for over fifteen years, while
climate skeptics avoid discussion of things like ocean acidification and accelerated melting in Greenland and the Arctic.
This brings to me to my first
concern about Mike's
model of recent
climate.
I defer to the
climate modellers on the question of what levels of temperature rise to be
concerned about and how to do the
modelling.
In particular, I hope that impugning
models as a means of rejecting serious
concerns about the future consequences of anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be seen as misguided — based on the false assumption that without
models, the edifice of
climate prediction will collapse.
I remain very
concerned about abrupt
climate change, but I am also working to demonstrate that if you accept the IPCC framing of the
climate change problem, e.g. «forced», that
models are over sensitive and the sensitivity is lower than inferred from
climate models.
THAT's the
climate model everyone should be
concerned about.
Judith raises
concerns about the epistemology of
models for open, complex systems, distinctly indefinite... and then... adopting an uncertain global
climate policy that could possibly produce «losses that throw mankind into economic, social and environmental bankruptcy.»
Even just acknowledging more openly the incredible magnitude of the deep structural uncertainties that are involved in
climate - change analysis — and explaining better to policymakers that the artificial crispness conveyed by conventional IAM - based CBAs [Integrated Assessment
Model — Cost Benefit Analyses] here is especially and unusually misleading compared with more ordinary non-
climate-change CBA situations — might go a long way toward elevating the level of public discourse
concerning what to do
about global warming.
You aren't going to make
concerns about anthropogenic
climate change vanish by attacking the
models.