Sentences with phrase «confidence about attribution»
I suspect this question is best answered by a post: «Natural Variability Limits Confidence about Attribution and Climate Sensitivity.»
https://judithcurry.com/ Not exact matches
It is absolutely true that climate scientists are extremely cautious about attributing any event to anthropogenic climate change, but an increasing number of such attributions are being made with high confidence in the scientific literature now.
As for additional topics, perhaps a brief explanation on why confidence in attribution (and prediction) of temperature change is strongest at large scales and weakest at small scales, ie something about the issue of signal to noise relative to spatial scale.
Any student of climate can say with confidence that the IPCC Fourth Assessment was wrong about either attribution or climate sensitivity or both.
Detection and attribution of climate change in the 20th Century gives us some confidence that we know what we are talking about, as do model - data comparisons for paleo - climate.
And Ray, the whole point of the article about curve fitting and natural cycles is that it is inappropriate to make strong claims about random fits without mechanism, attribution and supporting physics and observations, unless you are perfectly willing to accept that the fact that the confidence in any assumptions indicated by any such «curve fitting» is likely lower in contrast to more relevant methods.
And by the way, I suspect there will never be open debate about AGW for precisely the reason that attribution with high confidence is beyond reach.
Kindly do not bring justification of that here in a thread where Dr.Curry is talking about IPCC's confidence or overconfidence levels and attributions.
As Curry observes, an infinite number of statements could have been made, ranging from «it is extremely likely that the anthro pogenic increase in greenhouse gases has caused some warming» (not very informative, since an infinitesimally small warming is of no policy relevance) to «it is about as likely as not that greenhouse - gas - induced warming exceeds the total observed warming» (which indicates the size of the greenhouse signal, but understates our confidence in attribution).