In October 1974 Labour won a narrow majority, there was record inflation, high unemployment, massive
Conservative Local Election & By Election victories followed by the Winter of Discontent and yet while Labour lost, their total vote was very similar to that of the 1974 General Elections and it was more down to increased turnout for the Conservatives and collapse of the Liberals.
In 1985 the Labour -
Conservative local election lead was almost the same as this year's results (39 - 32), but the Conservatives won the 1987 general election 38 - 32.
Not exact matches
Speaking at the first Prime Minister's Questions since the general
election earlier this month, Corbyn said years of
Conservative government cuts to
local authority budgets had put public safety at jeopardy and had played a part in the fire that destroyed a tower block in Kensington, west London earlier this month, killing at least 79 people.
Voters in London are expected to punish Prime Minister Theresa May's
Conservative Party at
local government
elections this week.
Mr. Ford's candidacy in the federal
elections were in response to Mr. Uppal's nomination win over Strathcona County Councillor Jacquie Fenske, which many in the
local Conservative establishment believed to be unfair.
Their interest in
local and national politics is intense: They picket regularly for pro-life causes, enroll their children in debate clubs that argue for
conservative political ideas, and rally for Bush in the 2000
election.
Ed Miliband's party is continuing to make solid gains across England, as
local election results continue to hammer the coalition's
Conservative and Liberal Democrats.
Local elections are often said to be about local issues but actually most of the changes over time in shares of council seats won the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats can be accounted for by changes the popularity of these parties at the national l
Local elections are often said to be about
local issues but actually most of the changes over time in shares of council seats won the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats can be accounted for by changes the popularity of these parties at the national l
local issues but actually most of the changes over time in shares of council seats won the
Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats can be accounted for by changes the popularity of these parties at the national level.
The
Conservatives are continuing to struggle in opinion polls after their drubbing in last month's
local elections.
Scottish Tories currently campaigning for
local government
elections on May 4th tell stories about encountering long - standing Labour voters in
local authority areas not exactly known for being friendly to
Conservatives and who now declare their intention to vote for «Ruth» and the Tories.
The Labour Party had a tradition of fighting
local elections on party lines whilst the
Conservatives didn't see
local politics as party political, although many independents were
Conservatives in all but in name.
David Cameron vowed to show Ukip a newfound respect today, after the party's unprecedented surge in the
local elections gave the
Conservatives a bloody nose.
There's no doubt that the
Conservatives will rate their performance in the
local elections as a good one, or at least not as bad as it might have been.
The
Conservatives appear to have ended their assault on Ukip one day before this year's shire
local elections, as a poll puts Nigel Farage's party on an eye - watering 22 %.
A
Conservative MP who faced a battle with his own
local party over his decision to stand in the general
election, has stood down.
Details of the Thanet South poll were released after the
local Conservative MP Laura Sandys announced her intention to stand down at the next
election.
Before then, of course, comes the difficult
local election round in which it's likely the
Conservatives will be badly beaten in London.
But overall these
local elections suggest that while the people of Wales may be more inclined to support the
Conservatives in the context of a general
election, they have certainly not yet fallen in love with the Tories.
Meanwhile, for the Liberal Democrats, their changing opinion poll performance relative to the
Conservatives, but not Labour, has historically been correlated with headline
local election seat changes.
However, if we look at the places that had
local elections on the same boundaries last year and this year (combining district wards to make county divisions), the UKIP change since 2012 is equally strongly correlated with both the
Conservative and Labour change, suggesting that relative to last year both parties suffered equally from UKIP progress.
Given that the polls are showing that around half of former UKIP voters are planning on voting
Conservative this year, and given that the
Conservatives clearly benefitted from the collapse of the UKIP vote in the
local elections, surely UKIP dropout is a big advantage for Theresa May?
In all likelihood, next year's
local election results will be less bad for Labour than this year's were, perhaps showing a
Conservative lead of 10 - 15 % in terms of national equivalent vote share.
The
Conservatives clocked up big 12 + point leads in all the
local elections between 2005 and 2010.
If a similar pattern is maintained at these
local elections — and it was in last year's county council
elections — then the Labour vote will increase more (or fall less) were the Remain vote was higher in 2016, while the converse will be true of the
Conservatives.
But these negotiations foundered, in part because the
Conservatives would not countenance the introduction of proportional representation for
local government
elections.
On my desk, I have five pieces of
election literature which have been delivered by the
local Labour campaign over the last week or so, six Lib Dem leaflets, one leaflet from an independent candidate... and nothing whatsoever from the
local Conservatives.
In Wirral West, a Labour target, we found that the
local Conservative Association has secured # 77,000 in declarable donations since the last general
election.
In this year's
local elections, Labour finished 20 % behind the
Conservatives in terms of national equivalent vote share.
In a number of Labour targets, constituency polls and
local election results suggest the party simply does not have enough of a lead (and sometimes none at all) over the
Conservative incumbent.
Monday, June 08, 2009 in CCHQ,
Conservative strategy, Europe,
Local government and local elections, Wales Permalink Comments
Local government and
local elections, Wales Permalink Comments
local elections, Wales Permalink Comments (32)
Five years ago, Welsh Labour did very well in the Welsh
local elections, increasing the number of council seats they held by around 70 %; by the end of that night they had substantially more councillor in Wales than did the
Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats put together.
Jeremy Corbyn and his party performed poorly elsewhere in the 2017
local elections and with a large
Conservative poll lead, the Tories expected to make large gains in the area at the general
election.
The
local government
elections on 3 May 2018 will be the first big test of voters» opinion since they deprived the
Conservatives of their majority in parliament last June.
We finished second in the roughly similar Holyrood constituency of Aberdeen South and North Kincardine in 2016 but the Westminster constituency saw the
Conservatives beat the SNP by over 5 % in May's
local elections.
The
Conservatives are up by 8 points and Labour up by 6 points in the polls since just before the 2014
local elections, when most the seats up for
election this week were last fought.
By implication the geography of
local election voting must be doing a lot of work to dampen the scale of gains and losses for the
Conservatives and Labour parties in the Rallings and Thrasher projection.
The BBC's projected national share of the vote, which uses the results in
local elections to estimate the parties» standing across the country, put Labour and the
Conservatives neck - and - neck on 35 % apiece.
For the 2011 and 2012
local elections the model is fairly certain that the
Conservatives will be the largest party at the next
election.
Additionally, if we use the results of the
local elections in 2011, when the
Conservatives received 35 % of the vote, Labour 37 % and the Liberal Democrats 15 %, the results of the predictions are very similar.
The
Conservatives have fired the first shots in the campaign for next year's
local elections by promising to protect England's gardens from being concreted over.
This can not be done in the same way as it is for the
Conservative, Labour, or Liberal Democrat vote for the simple reason that the data does not exist — UKIP was not a real feature of
local elections until very recently.
I recall the 1995
local elections, in which the
Conservative Party lost over 2000 seats to Labour and the Lib - Dems, and were nearly forced to third place.
In the latest
local elections in May, Labour won 2,350 seats (up 77), the
Conservatives 1,332 (down 33).
There was widespread sniggering early in David Cameron's tenure as leader of the party when candidates started appearing on
local election ballot papers tagged as David Cameron's
Conservatives.
2) The rise of UKIP at the 2013
local elections dramatically alters the predicted UKIP vote share, lowers both the
Conservative and Labour vote shares but also increases the margin of error around the predictions.
In the 2005
local elections James stood as the
Conservative Candidate in Bishopsgarth and Elm Tree Ward in Stockton.
Ironically were the
Conservatives comeback to fail to fire at the
local elections the SNP would find it harder to get their vote out come June 8 and a low turnout could actually see more of their seats fall to unionist parties.
1) Each
local election predicts that the
Conservatives will win more of the vote than Labour at the next
election, though the confidence intervals for the 2012 and 2013
elections are overlapping.
In general Labour traditionally does better than average in urban areas, and the
Conservatives better in rural England, and at this particular point of the
local election cycle, most council seats up for re-
election were urban.
Conservative election candidates are coming under fire across the country for not attending
local hustings.