There is a new poll by CrosbyTextor in the Sunday Telegraph, conducted in the top thirty
Conservative target seats.
David Cameron's A-list of preferred candidates got a boost this weekend when two women were selected in
Conservative target seats for the next general election.
A separate poll by Populus for the Times newspaper focusing on
Conservative target seats from numbers 50 to 149 placed the two parties neck and neck, on 38 % apiece.
Moving on there were some interesting bits of data about tactical voting, particularly in the first Populus poll, back in November 2004, which was conducted in 160
Conservative target seats and included some questions on tactical voting behaviour.
These are (presumably) aimed at a number of
Conservative target seats around the country.
Not exact matches
«My strategy in West Worcestershire was always to fight it as if it was a
target seat for the
Conservatives,» she says.
It was difficult for both parties to fight against the «fear factor» whipped up by the press and the huge amount of direct mail which the
Conservatives poured into
target seats, but there were also significant self - inflicted wounds.
Taking all these factors together - regional variations, over-statement of the Labour vote and more vigorous campaigning in
target seats - and we would expect a modest
Conservative majority of 30 to 50.
To get an idea of how disastrous this election has been for the
Conservatives, look at what has happened in the Labour held
seats that the Tories were
targeting yesterday but didn't win:
The
Conservatives succeeded tactically and mostly at the expense of their coalition partner, the Lib Dems, by gaining 26 of their
seats and 10 of Labour's, destroying Labour's ambitions to
target 80
Conservative - held
seats.
For the
Conservatives, a majority will remain out of reach if they fail to win
target seats in places like Bolton West and Wirral South.
From December 2005 to September 2010, Lord Ashcroft was Deputy Chairman of the
Conservative Party with responsibility for the
target seats campaign and opinion research.
In 2010, though the
Conservatives did not achieve the national vote share they wanted, the party's
targeting strategy meant it won 23 more Labour
seats and 9 more Liberal Democrat
seats than it would have done on a uniform swing.
In his interesting analysis of the Scottish political scene (TP September), Robert Waller mistakenly states that «the
Conservatives were actually third in some of the highest
seats on their
target list... such as Edinburgh... South West».
The 1990s electoral tactic of announcing drastic future expenditure
targets and forcing Labour to accept or reject them is designed for an electoral battleground for the swing voters in the marginal
seats in contention between Labour and the
Conservatives, almost all of which are in England.
The party is asking the following rather pertinent question: «If the
Conservatives can't beat us in the 11th top
target seat under these circumstances, when can they beat us?»
Many commentators have already condemned the list, which will be used to pick candidates in
target seats, as too politically - correct, although
Conservative officials insist that local party associations will have the ultimate choice about who stands.
Drawing on his unique perspective as the man responsible for the party's
target seats and polling, the 133 - page book gives Lord Ashcroft's view of the
Conservatives» progress since their third defeat in 2005, the reasons for the party's failure to win an overall majority in 2010, and David Cameron's decision to form a coalition with -LSB-...]
At the 2005 election the
seat was Liberal Democrat
target number 18, and
Conservative target number 50; it had been frequently described in the media as a «three - way marginal», and all parties fought hard for the constituency.
Drawing on his unique perspective as the man responsible for the party's
target seats and polling, the 133 - page book gives Lord Ashcroft's view of the
Conservatives» progress since their third defeat in 2005, the reasons for the party's failure to win an overall majority in 2010, and David Cameron's decision to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Between December 2005 and September 2010, I was Deputy Chairman of the
Conservative Party, with special responsibility for the
target seats campaign and opinion research.
The polls of
Conservative - held Ukip
targets found the party failing to make breakthroughs even in
seats where they won their best results in last year's European elections.
Funding
targeting key marginal
seats is being provided by one of the
Conservatives» shadiest sources of cash, as the debate about party funding continues.
Again, if the
Conservatives were only a little way short (and the recent surge to the Lib Dems may so decimate Labour that the Tories do better in
target seats than expected), they could try to mimic the final years of John Major's government, when the
Conservative PM was forced to rely on the votes of Ulster Unionists.
The night began well for Cameron with a victory at Kingswood, 135th on the
Conservative target list and regarded by many as a benchmark
seat.
His team of election strategists, led by Stephen Gilbert (see No 26), have funneled money into the 150 or so
target seats and now reside in
Conservative Campaign Headquarters itself.
The DUP, which is
targeting 10
seats this time, is pragmatic about its partnerships and famous for driving hard bargains: it propped John Major up against
Conservative rebels in the 1990s but also saved Labour from defeat over anti-terrorism legislation two years ago.
(On Monday we listed the 27 who are no longer seeking a Westminster
seat, on Tueday we listed the 18 who have been selected to stand in
Conservative held
seats and yesterday we detailed the 27 who will be standing in
target seats.)
It is difficult to prove that the battlebus campaign was the factor that swung the last election in the
Conservatives» favour, although it was specifically
targeting marginal and swing
seats, and clearly the Tories saw it as a key campaigning tool.
Today, Cllr Leah Fraser, the
Conservative Parliamentary candidate for Wallasey, calls for a distinction between immediate
target seats and more medium term
targets.
Scotland on Sunday reports that the Scottish
Conservative Party is
targeting eleven
seats in the General Election, including that of the Chancellor, Alistair Darling:
[10][11] He was also a
target of the strategy led by Lord Ashcroft to concentrate resources on key marginal
seats which saw # 50,000 donated to the
Conservative campaign to unseat him.
In Lib Dem
target seats Labour voters were far more likely to vote tactically against the
Conservatives than against the Liberals by a margin of about 4 - 1.
A representative survey for CND, seen by the NS, shows that Labour's parliamentary candidates - from traditionally safe
seats to unwinnable
Conservative strongholds through to some of the most vulnerable of Labour's
target seats - are overwhelmingly against maintaining the nuclear deterrent when it comes up for renewal.
I managed to speak to almost half of the 80 candidates standing in those
Conservative seats we were
targeting... I have also spoken to many parliamentary colleagues and other stakeholders in the Labour party.
In Scotland, Labour gained one
seat from the SNP — Edinburgh Southern — but failed to take other
targets and was beaten into third place by the
Conservatives — a result that would have been unthinkable in the past.
Over the next hour I'm particularly looking out for Nuneaton, a
Conservative seat which Labour was
targeting - and the first Scottish
seat, the Western Isles.
Labour
targets Corby, Croydon Central, Plymouth Moor View, Morley and Outwood, Derby North, Gower, Thurrock and Telford all have smaller
Conservative majorities than the additional number of voters since 2015 - although in these
seats, with much smaller student populations and in some cases many elderly voters, other factors are likely to play a far bigger role in determining the outcome.
In the
Conservative held
target seats that Labour needed to gain there was a swing towards the
Conservatives (presumably because most of these
seats were being contested by first time
Conservative incumbents).
The first results of the night had produced Labour wins in Sunderland but outside of its strongholds in the north, it failed to take vital
seats such as the number one
target of Warwickshire North, where the
Conservatives increased their share of the vote.
As a
Conservative, I find a «crumb of comfort» in knowing that the former leader of the LibDems has started funding our
target seats campaigns.
You can see that marginals do behave a little differently sometimes — the
Conservatives managed a better swing in their
target Labour marginals in 2010, Labour did better in those
seats where they had fresh incumbency in 2001 — but the differences aren't huge.
The Enfield Southgate
seat was low down on the list of Tory
targets (number 114) but David took the
seat - once held by Michael Portillo - with the biggest swing of any victorious
Conservative candidate.
When Democrat Michael P. Kearns stumped the experts back in 2012 by winning the 142nd Assembly
seat on the Republican and
Conservative lines, he planted a big
target on one of Albany's top leaders — then - Speaker Sheldon Silver.
With 585 constituencies, the party can run 10 open primaries a week from January 2014, each one in a different part of the country, starting with
seats notionally held by the
Conservatives pre-2010, then those notionally won in 2010, then the
target seats for 2015, then the rest.
It is twentieth on the
Conservative target list and is a
seat we must win if we are to win the election nationally.
Below is a well crafted video presented by the Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie which introduces us to the party's candidates in the eleven
seats north of the border where the
Conservatives are
targeting resources at the general election.
But already set to take their place are 10 women amongst the candidates in notionally
Conservative - held
seats and 31 in the top 116
target seats which, on paper, would deliver a
Conservative Commons majority.
The local council recently went
Conservative so this
seat - number 100 on our
target list - is winnable.
Of those original 100 A-Listers, 17 are among the candidates selected for a notionally
Conservative seat, with a further 25 standing in
target seats.