Andrew M. Corry, CFA, Andrew is a portfolio manager in Global Equity Portfolio Management on the International
Contrarian Value Team.
Not exact matches
We're now over a month into the season and five
teams» early - season struggles have provided significant
value for
contrarian bettors.
Sportsbooks know they'll receive public money on those two
teams regardless of the line, and those shaded lines have provided
value for opportunistic
contrarian bettors.
The
teams getting 20 % would be more valuable due to the lopsided percentages and
contrarian value.
There's far more
value fading the public during the NBA Finals, that's especially true about
contrarian home
teams.
We'll take our weekly scan of the sports betting boards and see what games our
team of analysts will be eyeing for potential
contrarian values this weekend.
As you can see, there's limited
value on
contrarian favorites in heavily bet games until we examine
teams receiving less than 30 % of spread bets.
Betting activity is much lower, as compared to the regular season, but the
contrarian value that we have seen appear in baseball (
value on home
teams, plus
contrarian value based on betting percentages)-- also appears during spring training.
This is an excellent opportunity to sell high on a pitcher that's being overvalued based on name recognition and buy low on a
team offering exceptional
contrarian value.
In years past, one of the first things we have done to find
contrarian value in the NBA is to look at
teams on the road.
By examining historical trends, public betting trends and sharp money indicators (like steam and reverse line movement), I was able to pinpoint which
team was offering
contrarian value to bettors.
In particular, our
team of analysts has circled the Nashville - Detroit game as a potential play as the visiting Predators look to have solid
contrarian value.
Whenever we see a high spread betting percentage on one
team, we look for
contrarian value on the other
team
However, we were more concerned by how the total (O / U) affects the
value of
contrarian teams.
But how can bettors know which
contrarian teams are offering
value to bettors?
Square bettors habitually gravitate towards the league's top
teams, and this has created
contrarian value taking their opponents.
This week there are four
teams who are offering
contrarian value coming off a big loss: Dallas (+3), Tennessee (+14), Baltimore (+7.5) and San Francisco (+4.5).
Instead of focusing on these large road «dogs, we wanted to continue highlighting
contrarian value by examining our betting against the public strategy and
teams fitting our most profitable late season trends.
Each game is offering
contrarian value; however, only two of these
teams have triggered reverse line movement.
At the time of publication, eight
teams are receiving less than 30 % of spread bets and could be offering
value to
contrarian bettors.
There were very few games with extremely lopsided public betting, and these
teams did not provide
contrarian value in Week 11.
Dan Fabrizio and the SportsInsights
team of analysts focus on a host of
contrarian methods in the quest for
value in the NFL marketplace.
They know which
teams will attract public money, and these shaded lines create excellent
value for any
contrarian bettors who are willing to take an unpopular viewpoint.
Here's a sampling of some of the games our
team of analysts is keying in on today — in our quest for
value and
contrarian «betting against the public» plays:
To find
contrarian value, the
team at SportsInsights.com has built a sports betting database that includes valuable historical information like NFL line data, public betting percentages,
team and player stats, streaks, ATS stats, weather information and more.
There are 10
teams heading into Week 3 with 0 - 2 ATS records, meaning there is plenty of
value for those interested in continuing with our
contrarian betting philosophy.
We were a little surprised to see the public backing a 7 - 7 visiting
team over a 9 - 5
team, but this made us circle the game as a potential
contrarian value selection.