Why it matters:
Current global climate models used to predict climate change account for large - scale climate processes, typically at scales greater than 100 kilometers, or about 62 miles.
Not exact matches
Three approaches were
used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount of CO2 emissions compatible with a given
global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System
Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity
model, and evaluating the implications of
current ranges of uncertainty in
climate system properties
using a simple
model.
These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in
current climate models, which is crucial to their
use for
global warming projections.
Once we have
used real observations to understand the probability in the historical record, then we can
use climate models to compare the probability in the
current climate (in which
global warming has occurred) with a
climate in which there was no human - caused
global warming.
Using a recently developed hurricane synthesizer driven by large - scale meteorological variables derived from
global climate models, 1000 artificial 100 - yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenar
climate models, 1000 artificial 100 - yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four
climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenar
climate models and for
current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenar
climate conditions as well as for the warmer
climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenar
climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenar
Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario A1b.
This result suggests that
current projections of regional
climate change may be questionable.This finding is also highly relevant to regional
climate modelling studies where lower resolution
global atmospheric
models are often
used as the driving
model for high resolution regional
models.
In contrast CO2
global warming advocates
used spurious correlations, opportunistic
models and the
current global warming bias as a few adamant players including the IPCC, the journal Nature and Michael Mann repeatedly trumpeted a
climate causation.
It turns out that some of the assumptions
used in man - made
global warming theory (and in the
current climate models) had never actually been tested.
«
Climate science» as it is used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates of change of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industria
Climate science» as it is
used by warmists implies adherence to a set of beliefs: (1) Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will warm the Earth's surface and atmosphere; (2) Human production of CO2 is producing significant increases in CO2 concentration; (3) The rate of rise of temperature in the 20th and 21st centuries is unprecedented compared to the rates of change of temperature in the previous two millennia and this can only be due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations; (4) The
climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industria
climate of the 19th century was ideal and may be taken as a standard to compare against any
current climate; (5) global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industria
climate; (5)
global climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industria
climate models, while still not perfect, are good enough to indicate that continued
use of fossil fuels at projected rates in the 21st century will cause the CO2 concentration to rise to a high level by 2100 (possibly 700 to 900 ppm); (6) The
global average temperature under this condition will rise more than 3 °C from the late 19th century ideal; (7) The negative impact on humanity of such a rise will be enormous; (8) The only alternative to such a disaster is to immediately and sharply reduce CO2 emissions (reducing emissions in 2050 by 80 % compared to today's rate) and continue further reductions after 2050; (9) Even with such draconian CO2 reductions, the CO2 concentration is likely to reach at least 450 to 500 ppm by 2100 resulting in significant damage to humanity; (10) Such reductions in CO2 emissions are technically feasible and economically affordable while providing adequate energy to a growing world population that is increasingly industrializing.
Using global climate models, the researchers mapped
current and projected future «wet - bulb» temperatures, which reflect the combined effects of heat and humidity (the measurement is made by draping a water - saturated cloth over the bulb of a conventional thermometer; it does not correspond directly to air temperature alone).
Further investigation
using high - resolution
modeling approaches that better resolve the boundary conditions and fine - scale physical processes (44 ⇓ — 46) and / or
using analyses that focus on the underlying large - scale
climate dynamics of individual extreme events (8) could help to overcome the limitations of simulated precipitation and temperature in the
current generation of
global climate models.
In one of these, a team of scientists led by Gavin Schmidt undertake a review of related scientific literature and
use the radiation component of their GISS
global climate model to examine the role of each of the key components of the greenhouse effect for
current and 2xCO2 conditions.
His
current research includes
global ocean
modeling and data assimilation efforts as part of Estimating the Circulation &
Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium, as well as
using ensemble methods for regional ocean analysis and prediction.
He proposed a list of new tasks for the water research and management community: develop
global water assessment capabilities on a par with the
current IPCC assessments for
climate; expand monitoring and
models; introduce a regular reporting system similar to that of the IPCC; carry out a comprehensive freshwater biodiversity survey to act as a benchmark; provide technical tools such as databases, scenarios and conflict research to reconcile competing water
uses; and expand the focus on local basics and watersheds to a
global basis.
The
current generation of
global atmospheric
models in
use for
climate studies around the world do some things remarkably well, as I've tried to argue in several earlier posts.
Current projections of future resource
use and greenhouse gas emissions
used in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) reports and Integrated Assessment
Models (discussed further in the third Section) also depend heavily on a continuation of high levels of
global economic inequality and poverty far into the future.
Valuation
uses the
current global mean population - and PM2.5 exposure - weighted VSL of $ 3.05 million, calculated
using the same
model and methods as for the
climate - health VSL (UNEP 2011)(see ESM).