«Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to
Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming.»
Solomon, S. Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to
decadal changes in the rate of global warming.
Susan Solomon, Karen Rosenlof, Robert Portmann, John Daniel, Sean Davis, Todd Sanford, Gian - Kasper Plattner, Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to
Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming, Science, Published Online January 28, 2010
Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to
decadal changes in the rate of global warming.
Not exact matches
The
rate of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated climate
change, perhaps resulting
in sustained
decadal doubling of ice loss causing collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).
I focused on Fig 2 of Rahmstorf 2012, which shows the
rate of sea level
change in the form of 10 yr
decadal trends.
The
rate of increase (i.e.
change in temperature per year) is increasing, so maybe the best way to tell is by comparing
decadal changes.
The
rate of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated climate
change, perhaps resulting
in sustained
decadal doubling of ice loss causing collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).
The sum (integral) of this effect over time will be shown
in LOD (not it's
rate of
change), so
decadal scale
change in SST will be reflected
in LOD.
The projected
rates of
change are less than or equal to zero for decades from 2002
in the current cool
decadal mode.
Concerning the derivation of my own graphical adaptations of the IPCC and Hadley Center source graphics, the process by which the slopes of historical CET trend lines were determined is readily evident from direct examination of the illustration, without any further explanation other than to clarify that all fitting of trend slopes was done by visually placing each linearized trend line onto the original HadCET source plot wherever it was appropriate
in the CET record for the particular
decadal rate of
change being fitted: -0.1, -0.03, +.03, +0.1, +0.2, +0.3, or +0.4
Ensemble
decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past
decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice
change because they do well at predicting THC - driven ocean heat content
change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge
in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.
Bob, the 1973/74/75 / 76 & 1995/96 events correspond with
decadal - timescale peaks
in the
rate of
change of terrestrial angular velocity — i.e. - LOD» — the red curve here...... and with minima
in terrestrial nutation obliquity...... and also with negative surges
in terrestrial nutation longitude.
This record (Holgate 2007) shows that the average
decadal rate of SL
change has oscillated from -1 mm / year to +5 mm / year over the 20th C, with the first half of the 20th C showing a slightly higher average
rate of +2.0 mm / year than the second half at +1.4 mm / year (IOW no observed acceleration
in the
rate of SL rise).
As I said
in my comments on Roy's blog, I think the
rate of
change in temperature is composed of a «persistent» force from natural cycles of
decadal and bidecadal (and possibly longer) length, and an «anti-persistent» tendency from random shocks to the system.
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences
in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse
rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse
rate to interannual or
decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a
change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the
change in cloud radiative properties associated with a
change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
As we have shown
in Rahmstorf et al. (2012), much or most of the
decadal variations
in the
rate of sea - level rise
in tide gauge data are probably not real
changes at all, but simply an artefact of inadequate spatial sampling of the tide gauges.