Sentences with phrase «decadal oscillation»

Regional Pearson's R correlation between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and cloud cover deseasonalized standard anomalies for A: low, B: mid, C: High, D: total cloud cover.

What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behaviour (such as ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.

But for a decade or so earlier in the century, another Pacific feature was slowly unfolding: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which blows warm and cool, in a cyclic pattern.

The global satellite ozone records since 1979 show evidence for a decadal oscillation of total ozone with maximum amplitude (~ 2 %) at low latitudes (Hood and McCormack, 1992; Chandra and McPeters, 1994; Hood, 1997).

Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Reposted here from weatherquestions.com UPDATED — 10/20/08 See discussion section 4 by Roy W. Spencer (what follows is a simplified version of a paper I am preparing to submit GRL for publication, hopefully by the end of October 2008)...

The PSA variability, on the other hand, appears to drive ENSO - like decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), affecting precipitation in the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ).

It is hardly likely that such a high level of TSI compared to historical levels is going to have no effect at all on global temperature changes and indeed during most of that period there was also an enhanced period of positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation that imparted increasing warmth from the oceans to the atmosphere.

It is manifested as strong anomalous easterly trade winds, distinctive sea - level pressure patterns, and large rainfall anomalies in the Pacific, which resemble the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed in recent years.2 For example, changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified in recent changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4

Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values helped to push Chile into a dry phase through 2012 even as drying was considerably stronger than during past negative PDO periods.

However, the warming phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from 1976 to 2001 accounted for all but seven of those 33 years.

Between them, the phenomena known to meteorologists as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation could account for the seeming slowdown in predicted temperature rises.

Relationships with four candidate predictors (the Pacific North American (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Nino3 indices) are used for insights into possible large - scale climate forcing.

As of spring 2015, a wide strip of relatively warm water is present along the entire West Coast of North America (Figure 1), in a pattern projecting on the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

«In the oceans, major climate warming and cooling and pH (ocean pH about 8.1) changes are a fact of life, whether it is over a few years as in an El Niño, over decades as in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the North Atlantic Oscillation, or over a few hours as a burst of upwelling (pH about 7.59 - 7.8) appears or a storm brings acidic rainwater (pH about 4 - 6) into an estuary.»

Strong correlations between temperatures and Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) particularly Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values, also account for temperature variability throughout the state.

Decadal variability is described via large - scale patterns found in the atmosphere and ocean, which oscillate at decadal timescales and are concentrated in specific regions (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations).

However, if the models of Don Easterbrook etc. show global temperature varying with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)(not just regional temperature), then the models themselves are missing major physics and the drivers of both PDO and temperature changes.

John Philips (13:43:35) «Trends» have become virtually meaningless lately, since the word has been so variably used, but try this: Eyeball the temperature curve as correlated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and you will see an excellent relationship with the cyclic cooling and warming phase of the PDO overlaid on a gradual warming trend emerging from the Little Ice Age.

Coupling that ENSO event we recognized the existence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The new Jason oceanographic satellite shows that 2007 was a â $ œcoolâ $ La Nina yearâ $» but Jason also says something more important is at work: The much larger and more persistent Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has turned into its cool phase, telling -LSB-...]

«The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a climate index based upon patterns of variation in sea surface temperature of the North Pacific from 1900 to the present (Mantua et al. 1997).

«From my perspective it is not a little bit alarming that the current generation of climate models can not simulate such fundamental phenomena as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) has been mostly negative since about 2000.

That increase was apparently driven mainly by the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which the models do not model.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have been found to contribute significantly to the nesting behavior of loggerhead turtles.

It was entirely a result of THWBE whereby heat already stored in the oceans and released by a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation supplemented a historically high level of solar irradiation.

Note especially the 60 year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle ignored by IPCC.

With the Pacific Decadal Oscillation now in decline and solar irradiation now falling we are already in very different times.

I had previously noted that that the Pacific has developed a cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Those 60 years cycles are prominent on the HadCRUT (figure 5 - A) curve used by IPCC as they are in the reconstructions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation for the past millennium.

The method is a straight - forward application of the first law of thermodynamics and uses only the time - integral of sunspot count and 32 - year long up trends and down trends that have an amplitude of 0.45 C and are probably related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Index?

The latitudinal limits between those climates are shifting northward or southward according to cycles as seen on figure 21 - B for the USA [74]; this may explain the fear, expressed in the 1970s in many periodical and books, of an imminent glaciation; that fear faded after the reversal of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in 1977.

Zhang and Delworth and Zhang et al. showed by using models that, as the northward surface heat transport by the AMOC is increased, the global atmospheric heat transport decreases in compensation (and vice versa), providing a multidecadal component to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Removing the influence of two major modes of natural internal variability (the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) from observations further improves attribution results, reducing the model - observation discrepancy in cold extremes.

Over the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the United States, with state - wide average annual air temperature increasing by 3 °F and average winter temperature by 6 °F, with substantial year - to - year and regional variability.1 Most of the warming occurred around 1976 during a shift in a long - lived climate pattern (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]-RRB- from a cooler pattern to a warmer one.

Although those change points were naturally caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), it attracted the computer's attention that an «undocumented change» had occurred.

Fisheries scientist Steven Hare coined the term «Pacific Decadal Oscillation» (PDO) in 1996 while researching connections between Alaska salmon production cycles and Pacific climate (his dissertation topic with advisor Robert Francis).

Reversal in thr Pacific Decadal Oscillation caused natural temperature change - points around the 1940s and 1970s.

Any natural change - points caused by cycles like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation looked like deviations relative to steadily rising trends of an increasingly populated region like Columbia, Maryland or Tahoe City.

On top of the oscillation is a tendency for changing frequency and intensity of ENSO events over the same 20 to 30 year period as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Now forced to explain the warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by climate models, and the longer term Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of about 60 years.»

It is highly likely that due to its effect on storm tracks and competing air masses, the AMO can explain most of the east coast's temperature trends in a manner similar to how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation controls the USA's west coast trends as published by Johnstone 2014.

During a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino years, trade winds slowed and reduced the flushing rate of the reef.

Regional snow depth in spring (April - May) varies naturally from year to year due to weather patterns driven in part by long - term climate cycles (like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation).

Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role.

(d) Given the hypothesised connections with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the weather of West Australia being connected to snowfall at Law Dome, Antarctica, can we (or have we already) make a composite model of which global feature is connected to which other and with what confidence?

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has the same temporal pattern of warm and cool surface water — which raises interesting questions about how these northern and southern hemisphere ocean phenomenon are linked.

Variability of the El Niño / La Niña cycle, described as a Pacific Decadal Oscillation, largely accounts for the temporary decrease of warming [18], as we discuss further below in conjunction with global temperature simulations.