Not exact matches
This trade wind strengthening, which occurs during a the negative phase of a phenomenon called the Interdecadal Pacific
Oscillation (
also known as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation), pushes warm water westward and and changes Pacific Ocean circulation.
The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), marked by temperature fluctuations in the northern Pacific Ocean on a scale of 40 to 60 years,
also plays a role.
It should
also be noted that the authors examined whether the large - scale ocean circulation, the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), and two other ocean phenomena - the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional
Oscillation (AMO)- could explain the warming in the 20th century simulations, but found no evidence in the models.
On shorter time scales, and layered on top of Pacific
Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern
Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can
also affect variation in snowpack.
The phase of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation that leads to warmer conditions may
also prolong and intensify the fire season (Heyerdahl et al. 2008; Jolly et al. 2015; Abatzoglou and Williams 2016), and it is clear that years with protracted or widespread wildland fire or increased fire severity are correlated with drought (Littell et al. 2009; van Mantgem et al. 2013).
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal
oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data),
decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike
also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
There is
also no reason to expect less warming in the future — in fact, perhaps rather the opposite as the climate system will catch up again due its natural
oscillations, e.g. when the Pacific
decadal oscillation swings back to its warm phase.
We do know that ocean basins produce this oscillatory behavior — the El Nino / Southern
Oscillation, the Arctic
Oscillation, the Pacific
Decadal Oscialltion, the NAO, the Madden - Julian
Oscillation (Indian Ocean), but they seem to have a bit of a random component, their forcing mechanisms are poorly understood, their «phase changes» appear impossible to predict very far in advance, and they must
also be sensitive to the overall climate warming.
The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between
decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannu
decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannu
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but
also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial /
decadal to interannu
decadal to interannual.....
Dr Vincent Gray's latest Envirotruth 225 demonstrates from the behaviour of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), that, as ocean heating is from below, this heating is related to the PDO must
also behave in a periodic fashion.
Here is graph of the AMO compared to the geomagnetic field of Ob - Yenisei estuaries area http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SibArc.htm Elsewhere it was shown that the AMO
also closely follows combined
oscillations of the sunspot magnetic cycle and the
decadal changes in the Earth's magnetic field.
I am trying to say, I disagree with Fred that there is no evidence of large swings at 100 + year scales, and I
also disagree that one would intuitively expect
oscillations to be no larger than
decadal scale
oscillations.
Notz and Marotzke (2012)
also found very poor correlation between the AO and Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Arctic sea ice extent (yellow and green in Figure 7), concluding:
The influence of large - scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño - Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)-RRB- on APF magnitude is
also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls.
I've
also found no real correlation to the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation or any of the other
Oscillation Indices which are sometimes used to predict or measure the ENSO.
The new Jason oceanographic satellite shows that 2007 was a â $ œcoolâ $ La Nina yearâ $» but Jason
also says something more important is at work: The much larger and more persistent Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has turned into its cool phase, telling -LSB-...]
Strong correlations between temperatures and Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) particularly Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values,
also account for temperature variability throughout the state.
Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed in recent years.2 For example, changes in the Arctic
Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate change.3 The signature of global warming has
also been identified in recent changes in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4
It is hardly likely that such a high level of TSI compared to historical levels is going to have no effect at all on global temperature changes and indeed during most of that period there was
also an enhanced period of positive Pacific
Decadal Oscillation that imparted increasing warmth from the oceans to the atmosphere.
Climate indices for the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO), the multivariate El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation (QBO) were
also obtained via the PSD ESRL.
But California droughts are
also fundamentally linked to the quantities and timing of precipitation, the dynamics of storm formation in the Pacific Ocean, the impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of El Niño and La Niña events and the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, and the behavior of the jet stream as conditions in the Arctic change.
This investigation will
also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large - scale teleconnections (Southern
Oscillation, Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic
Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed.
Please
also document how you came to the conclusion that «the current powerful run of positive Pacific
Decadal Oscillations is the pulse of warmth from the Mediaeval Warm Period returning to the surface».
Balmaseda et al's results
also suggested that a negative phase of the pacific
decadal oscillation (PDO) may have made an imprint on the most recent years.