Not sure why that's significant, other than since we've been in a temporary cold phase of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation from about 2000 - 2013 the record warm years had a slightly lower magnitude.
However, the warming phase of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation from 1976 to 2001 accounted for all but seven of those 33 years.
The stepwise shift appearing in the temperature data in 1976 corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.
Note especially Figure 2 and the related statement, «In 1976, a stepwise shift appears in the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.»
Not exact matches
We removed the influence of ENSO, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO62) and the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO63)
from the MHW proxies using a statistical approach.
His models and many that are derived
from his legacy, typically show uniform ocean warming and completely miss the observed alternating temperatures of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
In both populations, the lagged
decadal oscillations amount to 70 % of the model performance when the results
from each series are averaged.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal
oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data),
decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing
from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
While that is possible, the so - called Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation since
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize
decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation since
decadal and multi-
decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation since
decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend
from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-
decadal fluctuation since
decadal fluctuation since 1980).
These phases, which last 30 years, giving a 60 - year cycle, must be carefully allowed for: otherwise the error made by many early models would arise: they based their predictions on the warming rate
from 1976 - 2001, a period wholly within a warming phase of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.
Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Reposted here
from weatherquestions.com UPDATED — 10/20/08 See discussion section 4...
The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between
decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannu
decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannu
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales
from centennial /
decadal to interannu
decadal to interannual.....
... the GCMs fail to reproduce the major
decadal and multidecadal
oscillations found in the global surface temperature record
from 1850 to 2011.
The second chart shows that over the 20thC the SL record was marked by significant
decadal oscillations in the rate of rise, varying
from -1 mm / year to +5 mm / year, but no apparent acceleration over the period.
What any atmospheric scientist knows (I suspect even Judith knows this) is that these brief shallow «pauses» in - between the stronger upsurges are noise
from the periodic
decadal and multi-
decadal oscillations (PDO, AMO) plus strong ENSO years.
Dr Vincent Gray's latest Envirotruth 225 demonstrates
from the behaviour of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), that, as ocean heating is
from below, this heating is related to the PDO must also behave in a periodic fashion.
Seems that the most recent warming trend that begins just past the max trough of the Atlantic Multi-
decadal lines up with the warming of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation during two of the main multi-centenial warm surges, the first one
from about 1910 - 1940 and the 2nd stronger one
from about 1970 - 2000.
Interactions between externally - forced climate signals
from sunspot peaks and the internally - generated Pacific
Decadal and North Atlantic
Oscillations «When the PDO is in phase with the 11 year sunspot cycle there are positive SLP anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, nearly no anomalous zonal SLP gradient across the equatorial Pacific, and a mix of small positive and negative SST anomalies there.
Known climate
oscillations resulting
from these interactions, include the Pacific
decadal oscillation, North Atlantic
oscillation, and Arctic
oscillation.
The models exhibit large variations in the rate of warming
from year to year and over a decade, owing to climate variations such as ENSO, the Atlantic Multi-
Decadal Oscillation and Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.
Related to this story: The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation Time Series
from the University of Washington, seen below.
The wind patterns may have changed due to a combination of the current Pacific
Decadal Oscillation which has now started changing, and the ozone hole allowing more sunlight to reach the surface rather than being absorbed in the stratosphere; the extra energy
from this may have accelerated the winds.
In 1976/77 the surface temperature of a vast area of the Pacific Ocean abruptly warmed by several degrees as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation shifted
from «cool phase» to «warm phase».
During the warm phase of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
from 1976 to 1999, the frequency of heat ventilating El Ninos increased as did the global average.
Environmental variables estimated over larger spatial and temporal scales included the upwelling index (UI) for 48 ° N, 125 ° W (http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov), an indicator of upwelling strength based on wind stress measurements, as well as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO, http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest), a composite indicator of ocean temperature anomalies [33], seawater temperature
from Buoy 46041 ∼ 50 km to the southwest
from Tatoosh (www.ndbc.noaa.gov), and remote sensing of chl a (SeaWiFS, AquaModis).
And only
from that framework can we fully account for
oscillations in the oceans» pH on daily, annual,
decadal and millennial timeframes.
Regional snow depth in spring (April - May) varies naturally
from year to year due to weather patterns driven in part by long - term climate cycles (like the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation, Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, and the Arctic
Oscillation).
Now forced to explain the warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging
from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by climate models, and the longer term Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of about 60 years.»
Over the past 60 years, Alaska has warmed more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the United States, with state - wide average annual air temperature increasing by 3 °F and average winter temperature by 6 °F, with substantial year - to - year and regional variability.1 Most of the warming occurred around 1976 during a shift in a long - lived climate pattern (the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation [PDO]-RRB-
from a cooler pattern to a warmer one.
Removing the influence of two major modes of natural internal variability (the Arctic
Oscillation and Pacific
Decadal Oscillation)
from observations further improves attribution results, reducing the model - observation discrepancy in cold extremes.
«
From my perspective it is not a little bit alarming that the current generation of climate models can not simulate such fundamental phenomena as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.
«The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation is a climate index based upon patterns of variation in sea surface temperature of the North Pacific
from 1900 to the present (Mantua et al. 1997).
John Philips (13:43:35) «Trends» have become virtually meaningless lately, since the word has been so variably used, but try this: Eyeball the temperature curve as correlated to the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation and you will see an excellent relationship with the cyclic cooling and warming phase of the PDO overlaid on a gradual warming trend emerging
from the Little Ice Age.
It is hardly likely that such a high level of TSI compared to historical levels is going to have no effect at all on global temperature changes and indeed during most of that period there was also an enhanced period of positive Pacific
Decadal Oscillation that imparted increasing warmth
from the oceans to the atmosphere.
Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Reposted here
from weatherquestions.com UPDATED — 10/20/08 See discussion section 4 by Roy W. Spencer (what follows is a simplified version of a paper I am preparing to submit GRL for publication, hopefully by the end of October 2008)...
What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behaviour (such as ENSO, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate the warming episode
from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.
Part of that wiggle comes
from natural climate patterns such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is calculated rather differently
from the AMO.
«It is likely that the current powerful run of positive Pacific
Decadal Oscillations is the pulse of warmth
from the Mediaeval Warm Period returning to the surface with the consequent inevitable increase in atmospheric CO2 as that warmer water fails to take up as much CO2 by absorption.»
We show that a harmonic constituent model based on the major astronomical frequencies revealed in the aurora records and deduced
from the natural gravitational
oscillations of the solar system is able to forecast with a reasonable accuracy the
decadal and multidecadal temperature
oscillations from 1950 to 2010 using the temperature data before 1950, and vice versa.
On that basis I think we will see cooling for a couple of decades due to the negative phase of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation which has just begun then at least one more 20 to 30 year phase of natural warming before we start the true decline as the cooler thermohaline waters
from the Little Ice Age come back to the surface.
Please also document how you came to the conclusion that «the current powerful run of positive Pacific
Decadal Oscillations is the pulse of warmth
from the Mediaeval Warm Period returning to the surface».
You wrote, «It is likely that the current powerful run of positive Pacific
Decadal Oscillations is the pulse of warmth
from the Mediaeval Warm Period returning to the surface...»
We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major
decadal and multidecadal
oscillations found in the global surface temperature record
from 1850 to 2011.
The natural causes of climate variations that have time scales (century,
decadal; e.g. Schwabe sunspot cycles, average solar output during the satellite measuring era,, ENSO / PDO / AMO and the rest of the alphabet soup of «
oscillations», volcanism) either don't capture energy over multiple cycles — if I push a child on a swing, his average position doesn't move away
from me — or are going in the wrong direction.
The presence of the longer - term effects on Australian rainfall
from oceanic shifts, such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific
Oscillation (IPO), make the analysis of this situation, and the teasing out of the AGW influence, a complex matter.
They include the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) that exhibited a warm phase
from 1930 - 1965, but with a transient drop between 1945 and 1948, a Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that shifted
from warm to cold between 1942 and 1950, and a series of El Nino conditions
from 1939 through 1942.
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS
from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal
oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina
oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
Oscillation, or the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
Oscillation that has recently transited
from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic
oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS
from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.
We find that cold season low ∆ 14C values were higher after the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) changed
from a positive to a negative phase.