Motizuki, T., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Sakamoto, H. Shiogama, T. Awaji, N. Sugiura, T. Toyoda, S. Yasunaka, H. Tatebe, and M. Mori, 2008: Hindcasting the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation in relevance to a near - term climate prediction.
The second chart shows that over the 20thC the SL record was marked by significant
decadal oscillations in the rate of rise, varying from -1 mm / year to +5 mm / year, but no apparent acceleration over the period.
... I think the weakness in this post is the idea that
decadal oscillations in climate properties are potentially drivers of climate warming over time.
Bart quoted me as saying: «However, I think the weakness in this post is the idea that
decadal oscillations in climate properties are potentially drivers of climate warming over time.»
However, I think the weakness in this post is the idea that
decadal oscillations in climate properties are potentially drivers of climate warming over time.
Not exact matches
In April 2008, scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-- a larger - scale, slower - cycling ocean pattern — had shifted to its cool phase.
This variability includes the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - lived El Niño - like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns
in the North Pacific Ocean.
The middle globe shows a drop
in levels west of Mexico, due to a cyclical climate variation called the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.
Goddard thinks it may be an early indication of a big shift
in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a kind of long - term El Niño - like pattern of climate variability.
Using records stretching back to 1791, the study finds that a switch
in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation or PDO has always been accompanied by changes
in temperature
in the north and south Pacific Ocean.
The study looked at some possibilities, but other than an apparent link between El Niño and tornado activity
in Oklahoma, couldn't find any links to major climate cycles, such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation or the Atlantic
Oscillation.
The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), marked by temperature fluctuations
in the northern Pacific Ocean on a scale of 40 to 60 years, also plays a role.
She said that some data discussed
in these e-mails concerned a temperature bump
in the 1930s and 1940s, caused by a coincidence of Atlantic and Pacific
decadal oscillations.
That was another period when you had the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation chiming
in together.
The study stops short of attributing California's latest drought to changes
in Arctic sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.
He thinks their movement may be an early indication of a big shift
in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - term pattern of climate variability.
Finally, the El Niño - Southern
Oscillation, Pacific
Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation each contribute to large variations
in MHWs both regionally and globally.
For example, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation was
in a negative phase between approximately 1960 - 1980, leading to above average snowpack across the state.
On
decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description
in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).
Phase shifts
in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation can be readily detected
in the long - term records of annual snowfall.
Large interannual variability
in snowpack can be nested within Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (and Pacific North American) driven patterns (e.g., see the high snow years of 1996 and 1997 that occurred during a 25 - year period of below average snowpack).
It should also be noted that the authors examined whether the large - scale ocean circulation, the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), and two other ocean phenomena - the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional
Oscillation (AMO)- could explain the warming
in the 20th century simulations, but found no evidence
in the models.
On shorter time scales, and layered on top of Pacific
Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern
Oscillation cycles (see Climate chapter) can also affect variation
in snowpack.
We describe two of the most important teleconnections for Montana below, the El Niño - Southern
Oscillation and the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.8 It is important to bear
in mind that teleconnections are happening continually, and superimposed on each other as well as upon other long - term climate patterns.
The first collection of papers establishes that (a)
decadal and multi-
decadal ocean circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, NAO, ENSO) have significantly modulated precipitation and temperature changes
in recent decades, and the second collection of papers confirm that (b) natural ocean
oscillations are,
in turn, modulated by solar activity.
The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO), Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar ac
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence changes
in surface air temperature and rainfall (climate) on
decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar ac
decadal and multi-
decadal scales, and these natural ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to changes in solar ac
decadal scales, and these natural ocean
oscillations have been robustly connected to changes
in solar activity.
Drought variations
in the study area significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
in North Pacific Ocean, suggesting a possible connection of regional hydroclimatic variations to the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation and El Niño - Southern
Oscillation teleconnections may reinforce or moderate each other, depending on if their phases are
in alignment or opposition.
Plant drought - tolerant species
in years with strong El Niño forecasts, particularly during Pacific
Decadal Oscillation warm phase; plant trees that require sufficient water during establishment
in La Niña years and during Pacific
Decadal Oscillation cool phases Focus planting more
in spring as fall planting becomes more difficult with reduced soil moisture and test different planting timings as springs shift earlier
... It is worthy of note that the highest coefficients at a 29 - month lag were found
in the relationships both between SSN [sunspot number] and PDO [Pacific
Decadal Oscillation], and SSN and CP El Niño with statistical significance at the 99 % confidence level, respectively.
oscillation A recurring cyclical pattern
in global or regional climate that often occurs on
decadal to sub-
decadal timescales.
But,
in contrast with the El Niño Southern
Oscillation index [12], the NAO and PDO operate on
decadal scales, causing extended periods of high or low population abundance [5], [7].
In both populations, the lagged
decadal oscillations amount to 70 % of the model performance when the results from each series are averaged.
Loggerhead juveniles disperse to regions whose climatic variability is characterized (a)
in the North Atlantic by the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) and (b)
in the North Pacific by the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
The data the researchers were interested
in tracking revolved around four important climate indices: the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation; the Multivariate El Niño Southern
Oscillation Index, which includes both El Niño and La Niña; the Southern Annular Mode; and the Pacific North American Pattern.
Though the ecological effects of these climate
oscillations have been described
in various settings, the influence of
decadal indices to long - term marine turtle population trends is largely unexplored.
We document a deeper aragonite saturation horizon and higher near surface aragonite saturation state
in the summers of 2014 and 2015 (compared with 2010 — 2013), associated with anomalous warm conditions and
decadal scale
oscillations.
His research concerns understanding global climate and its variations using observations and covers the quasi biennial
oscillation, Pacific
decadal oscillation and the annular modes of the Arctic
oscillation and the Antarctic
oscillation, and the dominant spatial patterns
in month - to - month and year - to - year climate variability, including the one through which El Niño phenomenon
in the tropical Pacific influences climate over North America.
This year's strong El Nino event, and the associated warmth of the Pacific Ocean, is likely partly to blame, along with the cyclical Pacific
Decadal Oscillation — which is
in its warm phase.
[11] Few attribute the decline
in fog, and moreover, climate change, to the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, however, as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is an oscillation moving heat through the climate system but neither creating nor retaining heat, it is not a cause of warming trends or decli
Oscillation, however, as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation is an oscillation moving heat through the climate system but neither creating nor retaining heat, it is not a cause of warming trends or decli
Oscillation is an
oscillation moving heat through the climate system but neither creating nor retaining heat, it is not a cause of warming trends or decli
oscillation moving heat through the climate system but neither creating nor retaining heat, it is not a cause of warming trends or declines
in fog.
In their paper Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures, they find that the largest contributor to global average temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales in not the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO
In their paper
Decadal Variations
in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures, they find that the largest contributor to global average temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales in not the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO
in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures, they find that the largest contributor to global average temperature variability on short (2 - 5 year) timescales
in not the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO
in not the El Nino - Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)(as everyone else believes), but is actually the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO).
In Atmospheric Controls On Northeast Pacific Temperature Variability And Change, 1900 — 2012, Johnstone 2014 showed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can explain climate change in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse gase
In Atmospheric Controls On Northeast Pacific Temperature Variability And Change, 1900 — 2012, Johnstone 2014 showed the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation can explain climate change
in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse gase
in the Pacific northeast without invoking greenhouse gases.
If individuals truly interested
in this topic don't, at a minimum, research the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, and the various solar cycles and their relationship with changes
in temperatures, then I am afraid those individuals are no more interested
in knowledge than a lazy 4th grader... they drink the Kool - Aid, but they won't do their homework.
Ocean and atmospheric indices —
in this case the El Niño Southern
Oscillation, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic
Oscillation and the North Pacific
Oscillation — can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability.
(«On
decadal to century timescales, climate dynamics — the complex interplay of multiple external forcings (rapid and slow), the spectrum of atmospheric and ocean circulation
oscillations, interactions with biosphere — determines variations
in climate.»)
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work
in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal
oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data),
decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike
in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence
in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 mea
oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel
in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role
in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published
in Nature),
in showing how changes
in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO,
in examining the role of solar variations
in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work
in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
# 8220; This multi-year Pacific
Decadal Oscillation «cool» trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,» said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. «The persistence of this large - scale pattern [
in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring
in the Pacific Ocean.»
Note especially Figure 2 and the related statement, «
In 1976, a stepwise shift appears in the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.&raqu
In 1976, a stepwise shift appears
in the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.&raqu
in the temperature data, which corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.»
Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal temperature changes are widely interpreted
in the framework of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to regional atmospheric dynamics.
There is also no reason to expect less warming
in the future —
in fact, perhaps rather the opposite as the climate system will catch up again due its natural
oscillations, e.g. when the Pacific
decadal oscillation swings back to its warm phase.