Not exact matches
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the
deep oceans and the
change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
In Balmaseda et al. paper, they show very nicely the
changes in the
ocean heat content (OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the OHC has substantially increased in the
deep ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalled.
Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century warming is about half of the warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted
change in Ts), transfer of
heat to the
deeper ocean (where
changes in
heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the
deep oceans and the
change in the global
heat content (Figure 4).
Not all at once of course, but as mentioned above, when the PDO goes positive, we can likely expect a significant
change in the atmospheric
heat content as
heat energy is transferred from the
deep oceans back into the atmosphere.
Changes in the
heat content of the
deep ocean are thus far more sensitive to the air - sea thermal interchanges than previously considered.
Elsewhere on this site there is a graph of overall
ocean heat content which is building indicating that while the sst is decreasing slightly the overall
ocean is warming, It is likely that this overall
ocean warming which has nothing to do with
changes to the atmospheric temperature because it is the sea surface and not the
deep ocean that is in contact with the atmosphere is what is resulting in the overall rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration which is currenly increasing at 2ppmv / year.
For global warming diagnosis, use
ocean heat content changes, recognizing that the
deeper ocean heating (i.e. below the long term thermocline) is mostly unavailable to affect weather on multi-decadal time periods).
Here is a figure estimating
heat content changes for the decade from the 1990 ′ s to the 2000 ′ s showing that the
deepest layers of the
oceans have also warmed.
The argument that this
change it is somehow driven by energy reservoirs in the
deep ocean is clearly flawed: the
deep ocean would be * cooling * as it lost energy to the upper
ocean, but
deep ocean heat content is increasing at the same time as OHC in the upper
ocean is increasing.
Balmaseda et al. (2013) suggested that
changes in the winds have resulted in a recent
heat accumulation in the
deep sea that has masked the surface warming and that the
ocean heat content shows a steady increase.
IMO the process whose
changes are most likely to be responsible for apparent
changes to
deep ocean heat content are
changes to the nature of turbulent vertical mixing in specific areas of the world, especially the West Pacific / South China Sea, and perhaps the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
Advocates of the assumption that CO2 variations are a primary cause of
changes in
deep ocean heat content (i.e., those who author government - sponsored IPCC reports and activists for the anthropogenic global warming cause) have necessarily believed that past natural variations in
deep ocean heat content are very slow and gradual.