Does systematic measurement of the level of investor optimism provide a clue to the future direction of the stock market?
By the way, neither
do the systematic measurement errors in the surface air temperature record.
Not exact matches
Laughlin says it's frustrating that the most interesting planets — small ones like Earth — are so challenging to detect: «You have to get tons and tons and tons of velocity
measurements over many years, and then you really, really have to take extreme care — as this Tuomi et al. paper
does — to get rid of all the
systematic noise.»
You have to get tons and tons and tons of velocity
measurements over many years, and then you really, really have to take extreme care — as this Tuomi et al. paper
does — to get rid of all the
systematic noise.»
For the estimation of the total ocean heat content (OHC) a lesser precision would probably be almost as good, because errors of individual
measurements always cancel to a large extent as long as the floats
do not have common
systematic errors.
Because we didn't have a
systematic global set of thermometer
measurements before the 1880s, scientists look at other things they can measure — sediment deposits, or tree ring growth in certain ancient, slow - growing trees — which tend to vary along with temperature.
As an example sampling the Southern oceans must happen in essentially same areas and using methods with errors that don't move in either direction systematically, but as long as there are no such
systematic trends the results are not particularly sensitive to errors of individual
measurements.
The
dO18
measurement errors
do not behave as constants — note the different magnitude of
systematic error between the two determinations of McCrae, for example.
The
dO18
systematic measurement errors
do not fall into that category, by the analytical evidence given in my post and in the associated references.
Because of the nature of these
measurement problems and biases, almost all of these errors tend to be in the same direction — biasing temperatures higher — creating a
systematic error that
does not cancel out.
What will be left are the
systematic errors, the things that don't cancel because they are common to all the
measurements.
Did anyone ever see those sorts of
systematic measurement errors propagated into the reported SST trend?
Uncertainties associated with «random errors» have the characteristic of decreasing as additional
measurements are accumulated, whereas those associated with «
systematic errors»
do not.