Not exact matches
Even more devastating, wages» share
of GDP has been declining (with brief interruptions
during asset
bubbles) for 46
years.
The postwar trade partnership, which worked so well
during the «miracle»
years of Japanese growth, has been in decline since the collapse
of Japan's «
bubble...
If this is true, by the way, it means that attempts at implementing liberalizing reforms are successful mainly
during periods
of great global liquidity, and this might have implications for China, especially if over the next few
years global central banks begin to withdraw the huge liquidity injections that have underpinned asset
bubbles around the world.
For a few
years during the heyday
of the 1920s
bubble, Germany was able to do just this, borrowing more than half
of its reparation payments from the US markets, but much
of this borrowing occurred because the great hyperinflation
of the early 1920s had wiped out the country's debt burden.
I detailed this transition in real - time
during the two prior valuation
bubbles of the past 15
years.
But in each case inflation fell
during the subsequent two
years by between 1 and 2 percentage points (see chart, right)-- even
during the 1970s, now recalled unfondly as a
bubbling cauldron
of inflation.
Some readers who haven't had the magical 20 -
year dementia will recall that
during the tech
bubble, the average NASDAQ share was held for a period
of seven days, volumes were immense and speculation was rampant.
If people just said, no co-signing, no BS creative mortgage financing, etc, there is no way even half
of the mortgages that were written
during the
bubble years would have been approved.
2) By extending the projection horizon by an extra market cycle (~ 6
years - the current half - cycle is quite long - in - the - tooth from a hisorical perspective) the effect
of mean reversion has a greater chance to dominate the occasional noise that emerges (e.g.
during the tech
bubble) over shorter horizons.
This modestly exceeds the yield available on a 10 -
year Treasury, but by a small margin that - outside the late 1990's
bubble period - has previously been seen only
during the two -
year period approaching the 1929 peak, between 1968 - 1972 (which was finally cleared by the 73 - 74 market plunge), and briefly in 1987, before the crash
of that
year.
Though our standard methodology is less accurate at horizons shorter than about 7
years, the main sources
of that reduced accuracy are those two «
bubble» advances, one
during the 1995 - 2000 period, and the other
during the 2005 - 2007 period.
This substantially exceeded the 10 -
year return
of about 14 % which would have been achieved had the 2000 bull market peak been held to a P / E
of 20 (the market's actual price / peak - earnings ratio moved over 32
during the
bubble).
During the past 60
years, while numerous laboratory studies have documented
bubble - bursting drops» properties such as their ejection speed, maximum height or size, a comprehensive picture
of the mechanisms at play is still lacking.
Assuming that the Local
Bubble or Chimney was created by the supernovae
of young, massive stars
during the past few million
years, some astronomers have been looking for their probable source among the 27 member B stars
of the Pleiades moving group, which are located towards the nearest part
of Gould's Belt
of massive hot, OB - type stars (more discussion in pdf).
In an effort to provide ongoing feedback to teachers
during the course
of the school
year, measure annual student growth, and move beyond narrowly - focused
bubble tests, the U.S. Department
of Education has awarded two groups
of states grants to develop a new generation
of tests.
During his short but successful publishing career, Mark Malatesta also spent several
years as Marketing & Licensing Manager
of Blue Mountain Arts (the book and gift publisher that invented e-greetings, then sold their e-card division for close to $ 1 billion at the height
of the dot com
bubble).
Just as
during the dot.com
bubble and the three
years of negative returns that followed, we just kept investing and moving forward.
But no,
during the
bubble years, Greenspan was lionized for keeping the economy going smoothly — limiting the impact
of recessions.
But unless one expects a reprise
of that
bubble, or at least a reprise
of the sort
of enthusiasm we saw
during the housing
bubble (when valuations ascended high enough to drive 10 -
year prospective returns below 3 % annually), the odds
of sustained durable gains from present levels are weak.
This is how Dan Zanger turned $ 10k into $ 18 million
during the last 2
years of the internet
bubble.
But I can share that my loans are long gone and forgotten and meanwhile I can already see results
of starting early, even taking into account the current turmoil, and that I started
during the tech
bubble years, and that I didn't max out, and that the contribution caps were much lower in the 90s.
This
of course hasn't gone unnoticed by John Taylor, who has written a number
of papers over the last
year showing empirically that the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy
during this period was an important catalyst
of the housing
bubble and therefore influential in the current problems the economy is experiencing.
Cycle 4 holds a similar story, only investors had to suffer 40 months
of protracted 20 % declines
during the tech
bubble bear before finally eking out a 2 % annualized return across its 7 -
year full cycle.
Had the numbers on all portfolio statements been marked down by 65 percent
during the
bubble years, many companies providing luxury goods would have been put out
of business and many companies providing well - priced goods and services that in a
bubble environment failed would instead have thrived.
[102] Testimony given to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission by Richard M. Bowen III on events
during his tenure as the Business Chief Underwriter for Correspondent Lending in the Consumer Lending Group for Citigroup (where he was responsible for over 220 professional underwriters) suggests that by the final
years of the US housing
bubble (2006 — 2007), the collapse
of mortgage underwriting standards was endemic.
If people just said, no co-signing, no BS creative mortgage financing, etc, there is no way even half
of the mortgages that were written
during the
bubble years would have been approved.
The
year 1999 was a particularly unfavourable date to retire: many stocks were trading at extremely high levels
during the dot - com
bubble, and the bear market that followed was a prime example
of an unlucky sequence
of returns.
During the dot - com
bubble, the cyclically - adjusted earnings yield
of the market fell to a little over 2 % while 30 -
year Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities yielded over 4 %.
But much like the country's private lenders
during the first several
years of the present century, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's drive to increase profits helped create the housing
bubble (thanks to lowered underwriting standards, approvals for subprime borrowers and the bundling
of loans into mortgage - backed securities).
During the
bubble years, it was reaching 25 %
of income.
For a number
of years,
during the
bubble, stocks that were simply cheap were shunned as we all know.
Back
during the technology
bubble days
of 10
years ago, riskier high return investments were all the rage.
Adhering to the 15 P / E valuation reference
during the tech
bubble would have avoided
years of poor performance as price moved into alignment.
Generation X is the most anxious about retirement by far, having weathered the collapse
of the dot - com
bubble in the early 2000s and the 2008 financial meltdown, as well as sluggish wage growth
during their formative adult
years.
Doesn't mean it can't go down 20 per cent next
year but
during the course
of the bull market it is going to go much higher it is certainly not a
bubble yet.
And, the fact is,
during the
bubble years few investors showed this sort
of skepticism — or any sort
of skepticism.
It's likely that folks haven't been richer in many
years than they are today, except for maybe in 2006
during the peak
of the housing
bubble.
Mortgage delinquencies are on the rise for home equity lines
of credit that were taken out
during the housing
bubble, as well as others that are reaching the 10 -
year mark, Equifax data shows.
The flow
of «rescue» financing opportunities on commercial real estate debt should continue well into 2018 as the 10 -
year fixed rate debt issued
during the «
bubble»
years comes due.
Forty percent
of homeowners who bought a house
during the
bubble will regain equity by the end
of this
year, according to the report, provided prices mirror 2016 movement.
Despite this
year's appreciation, approximately 60 percent
of housing markets remain below values reached
during the
bubble years, according to the analysis.
Since mid-1926 it has happened only six percent
of the time — and the two most prominent examples were
during the 1929 market
bubble that ended with «Black Tuesday» and the dot - com
bubble of the late 1990s that, as we saw again this
year, was dominated by info tech stocks.