In the south - western U.S., fire activity is correlated with
ENSO positive phases, and higher Palmer Drought Severity Indices....
Not exact matches
Most of the scientific observation and analysis of
ENSO was since 1976 and as a result, during a
positive PDO
phase.
You just need to add that more zonal jets when the sun is active widen the subtropical high pressure cells and allow more energy into the oceans to skew
Enso in favour of El Nino over and above the basic 60 year periodicity so as to get the observed millennial climate cycling.and the temperature stepping from one PDO
positive or negative
phase to the next.
In negative IPO
phases, an El Niño — Southern Oscillation (
ENSO)- precipitation teleconnection dominates Australian rainfall variability, but this connection fades and drought risk is increased during
positive IPO
phases [Power et al., 1999; Kiem and Franks, 2004; Cai et al., 2010].
The graphic below (Roemmich & Gilson [2011]- The Global Ocean Imprint of
ENSO) is derived from ARGO subsurface temperature observations for the region 60 ° N - 60 ° S, the red line denotes the
positive / negative
phases of
ENSO, and the black line is the sea surface temperature anomaly.
Empirically, certain
phases of
ENSO are known to be associated with trends at the ocean surface that are the reverse of those at deeper layers, consistent with the notion that a
positive surface warming is at times an ocean cooling event.
I presume this be due to a non-linearity in the global response to
positive and negative
ENSO phases but I have not heard it expressed in those terms.
Importantly,
phase changes in the PDO have a propensity to coincide with changes in the relative frequency of
ENSO events, where the
positive phase of the PDO is associated with an enhanced frequency of El Nin˜o events, while the negative
phase is shown to be more favourable for the development of La Niña events.
Qualitatively speaking,
positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (
ENSO) produce similar ice changes in the western Arctic, but opposite ice changes in the eastern Arctic.
The 1976 — 1977 climate shift in the Pacific, associated with a
phase change in the PDO from negative to
positive, was associated with significant changes in
ENSO evolution (Trenberth and Stepaniak, 2001) and with changes in
ENSO teleconnections and links to precipitation and surface temperatures over North and South America, Asia and Australia (Trenberth, 1990; Trenberth and Hurrell, 1994; Power et al., 1999a; Salinger et al., 2001; Mantua and Hare, 2002; Minobe and Nakanowatari, 2002; Trenberth et al., 2002b; Deser et al., 2004; Marengo, 2004).
Based on the
ENSO and PDO variability during the altimeter record, a
positive acceleration is expected due both to the presences of two large El Niños at either end of the record and the recent shift from the
positive to negative
phase of the PDO.