Tamino has also previously performed a multiple regression of temperature on various short - term effects, including the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and confirms that TLT data are much more sensitive to
ENSO than surface temperature data (Figure 2).
Not exact matches
The difference of adding 1998 is greater here
than with the
surface data, because the response of tropospheric
temperature to
ENSO is twice as large as that of
surface temperatures to
ENSO (in other words, the 1998 anomaly is much larger in the satellite data).
That is why HadCRUT4 is more sensitive to
ENSO than other
surface temperature indices, and a significant factor in why making the index truly global increases the trend significantly.
There's more to
ENSO than just sea
surface temperature deviations.
But sea
surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific region remain somewhat hotter
than normal — bending toward the warm side of
ENSO neutral.
For more
than 3 1/2 years, I've been presenting how sea
surface temperature data indicates that
ENSO is the primary cause of the warming of the past 3 decades.
Steve Fitzpatrick says: «It is an real contribution to link the
ENSO to the AMO (this gives the AMO a more solid rational for influencing global
temperatures), but it is I think unwise to suggest that
ENSO driven cycles are (rather
than could possibly be) responsible for most of the observed ocean
surface warming since 1900.»
It is an real contribution to link the
ENSO to the AMO (this gives the AMO a more solid rational for influencing global
temperatures), but it is I think unwise to suggest that
ENSO driven cycles are (rather
than could possibly be) responsible for most of the observed ocean
surface warming since 1900.
However, the situation is complicated by multiple other factors that include delay in the response of global
temperature to regional
ENSO phenomena, and the triggering of feedbacks that can heat or cool the ocean in the same direction as
surface trends rather
than opposing them.
And the TLT data are more sensitive to
ENSO events
than surface temperature data (Figure 1).
I've also looked at other
ENSO indexes other
than Nino 3.4 sea
surface temperatures, and they do NOT all show a zero trend.
The satellite temps are more sensitive (higher swings) to
ENSO and yearly variation
than the
surface temperatures, and the 5 - year average for 1982 (1979 - 1984) is one of the highest peaks above trend for the UAH record.
http://www.agci.org/docs/lean.pdf «Global (and regional)
surface temperature fluctuations in the past 120 years reflect, as in the space era, a combination of solar, volcanic,
ENSO, and anthropogenic influences, with relative contributions shown in Figure 6.22 The adopted solar brightness changes in this scenario are based on a solar
surface flux transport model; although long - term changes are «50 % larger
than the 11 - year irradiance cycle, they are significantly smaller
than the original estimates based on variations in Sun - like stars and geomagnetic activity.
Perhaps solar cycles or volcanoes coincided with some of the
ENSO episodes thus moving
surface temperatures more
than they usually do for an
ENSO event.
If
ENSO releases more heat
than normal from the tropical Pacific over a multidecadal period,
surface temperatures have to warm over that multidecadal period.