«I think the big move now is from active [investing] to passive, and that's good for most people,» says Joel Greenblatt, Managing Principal of Gotham Asset Management and the guru Validea's «
Earnings Yield Investor» is based on.
Not exact matches
While these companies are unsurprisingly out of favour with many
investors — a lot simply won't buy these companies on moral grounds — they think the sector's high
yields, low correlation with market cycles and steady
earnings will make
investors give them another look, and then stock prices will appreciate.
There is no doubt that, based on pure, cold, logical data, stocks are the single best long - term performing asset class for disciplined
investors who are not swayed by emotion, focus on
earnings and dividends, and never pay too much for a stock, often as measured on a conservative beginning
earnings yield relative to the Treasury bond
yield basis.
Investors have long known that a high - dividend strategy has been subject to various «
yield traps,» such as those stemming from temporarily high
earnings, high payouts or falling stock prices.
A high FCF
yield often represents a good investment opportunity, because
investors would be paying a reasonable price for healthy cash
earnings.
Japanese shares hit a two - month closing high on Tuesday with financials leading gains after U.S. bond
yields spiked to four - year highs and as
investors remained optimistic about upcoming
earnings.
And even if the indicator was valid (counterfactually), the article asks readers to accept as given that
earnings are properly reported here, that they will grow by nearly 50 % over the coming year, and that
investors are willing to key the long - term return they require from stocks to the
yield on 10 - year bonds, which has been abnormally depressed in a flight to safety.
Benchmark stock indexes were also volatile Wednesday, as
investors mulled the impact of rising bond
yields and disappointing
earnings.
The $ 1.2 trillion high -
yield debt market could face a double whammy as spreads tighten and
investors use the corporate
earnings season starting in the second week of October as an excuse to take even more profits.
We may see some more uncertainty ahead of
earnings releases and
investors will continue to react to bonds
yield changes.
These conditions comprise the following: S&P 500 overvalued with the Shiller P / E (the ratio of the S&P 500 to the 10 - year average of inflation - adjusted
earnings) greater than 18; overbought with the S&P 500 within 3 % of its upper Bollinger band (2 standard deviations above the 20 - period average) at daily, weekly, and monthly resolutions, more than 7 % above its 52 - week smoothing, and more than 50 % above its 4 - year low; overbullish with the 2 - week average of advisory bullishness (
Investors Intelligence) greater than 52 % and bearishness below 28 %; and
yields rising with the 10 - year Treasury bond
yield higher than 6 - months earlier.
With IBM stock trading for just 11 times its guidance for adjusted
earnings this year,
investors can get a near - 4 % dividend
yield, along with a long history of dividend growth, all for a bargain price.
«Starting out I was a Graham and Dodd
investor, focused on low price /
earnings ratios, good balance sheets and high dividend
yields.
Market participants are looking forward to getting their first major reading on
earnings from the biggest technology - sector players in the coming days, but for now,
investor sentiment has been able to overcome what would ordinarily be a troubling rise in long - term bond
yields that could signal a steeper move higher for interest rates in the near future.
While its dividend is not as high as some of the oil and gas supermajors,
investors in SU do get a 2 % dividend
yield, which is only a 29 % payout of
earnings.
Investors were cautious after a largely weak performance on Wall Street on Thursday as some disappointing
earnings reports offset strong economic data, while bond
yields slid after a surprising slowdown in eurozone inflation.
Whether
investors had priced in great
earnings or fear arose that an inverted
yield curve could pinch margins, no one knows, but the stocks clearly have underperformed on what was seemingly excellent news.
Investors were cautious after a largely weak performance on Wall Street overnight as some disappointing
earnings reports offset strong economic data, while bond
yields slid after a surprising slowdown in euro zone inflation.
What
investors may not realize is that the correlation between interest rates and
earnings yields (as well as dividend
yields) has also been negative since late - 1990's.
«We think the recently lowered dividend payout is sustainable, providing
investors with an attractive 6 per cent fully franked
yield at current prices... we view the risks facing Telstra as more than reflected in the current stock price, trading at 12 times forward
earnings per share and 5.5 times
earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation,» the analysts said.
Altria's 7 % to 9 % target
earnings - per - share growth rate combined with its 4 % + dividend
yield gives
investors expected total returns of 11 % to 13 % a year.
During
earnings season,
investors worried about the impact of a flattening
yield curve on small cap banks, which make up roughly 25 percent of the Russell 2000, according to Bloomberg data.
In addition, the company should continue compounding
earnings - per - share at 7 % to 9 % a year giving high
yield investors solid growth as well.
A stock's price -
earnings (P / E) ratio — its share price divided by its
earnings per share — is of particular interest to a value
investor, as are the price - to - sales ratio, the dividend
yield, the price - to - book ratio, and the rate of sales growth.
Unusually high dividend
yields can be an indicator that a company may report poor
earnings — and that
investors anticipate a subsequent dividend cut.
Further share repurchases or dividend reinvestments allow
investors the opportunity to invest in a company with an
earnings yield of 12.5 % per year.
In fact, when looking at the
earnings yield relative to real bond
yields — the equity risk premium (ERP)--
investors are still being well compensated for risk in many corners, we believe.
What
investors have paid up for is dividend
yield — 3.0 % in the case of Procter and Gamble — and stability of
earnings.
CMP trades at about 14x forward
earnings and offers a dividend
yield of 3.6 %, which is meaningfully higher than its five year average dividend
yield of 2.7 % and a great starting base for
investors living off dividends in retirement.
Thus,
investors who buy stocks that do not pay dividends prefer to see these companies reinvest their
earnings to fund expansion and other projects which they hope will
yield greater returns via rising stock price.
Eventually a spike in stock prices and / or an
earnings decline caused by a recession will lower the
earnings yield on stocks, but until then, nervous
investors will likely continue to underperform.
An
investor concentrates on the fundamental analysis of the company — its market prospects, sales growth, profitability, cash flow, debt ratio, price
earnings valuations and dividend
yield among other variables.
The world's most successful value
investor Warren Buffet picks stocks with a low price - to -
earnings ratio, low price - to - book value, and high dividend
yield.
The poor value
investor who got out of the stock market in the mid-90s as the
earnings yield hit hit lows unseen since the late 60s — almost 25 years prior — would have sat out much of the fantastic returns generated by the dot - com bubble.
Because they are compared some
investors are led to believe that the equity owners» expected return can be estimated as the sum of the
earnings yield plus
earnings growth.
The basic formula for the
investors» expected returns is the sum of the dividend
yield plus
earnings growth.
That's because at today's price, long - term
investors have potential to generate annual total returns between 8.3 % to 10.3 % (1.3 %
yield + 7 % to 9 % annual
earnings growth).
Value
Investors thus select stocks with lower - than - average price - to - book or price - to -
earnings ratios and / or high dividend
yields.
That being said, even at today's historically attractive valuation multiples,
investors should likely only expect to earn a potential total annual return of about 5.9 % to 6.9 % (1.9 %
yield plus 4 % to 5 % annual
earnings growth) over the next decade, far below the company's historical return rate and the returns offered by most other dividend aristocrats.
A high FCF
yield often represents a good investment opportunity, because
investors would be paying a reasonable price for healthy cash
earnings.
Even though a P / E ratio is simply the inverse of the
earnings yield, I actually consider it a (far more) dangerous tool to use for investing — particularly if it's the key / sole metric on which an
investor relies.
Investors can achieve better long - term performance by combining several factors into a composite ranking that considers price to sales, price to
earnings, EBITDA to enterprise value, price to free cash flow to enterprise value and shareholder
yield.
An
earnings yield of 6 % to 7 % (P / E ratio 15) would be the minimum that a rational
investor should expect given the risk associated with investing in common stocks.
For example when the real
earnings yield is at the 80th percentile, the
investor would hold 80 % stocks and the balance of 20 % in cash.
For stock market
investors the
Earnings Yield on a common stock is the equivalent of the Cap Rate on an apartment building investment.
When
investors bought during periods when stocks were inexpensive relative to sales,
earnings, book value and dividend
yields, they prospered handsomely.
Other
investors use similar screens: some use dividend
yield signals of a small group of stocks (in Canada, it is fairly easy to come up with a short list), some use price - to -
earnings, price - to - book ratios etc..
The problem though is that Hershey and Brown Forman rarely get cheap or even present
investors with an opportunity to buy shares at a fair price (what does it tell you when it takes a financial crisis to knock these stocks down to fair value), and the businesses are so strong that they still deliver great returns even when the shares only offer a starting
earnings yield around 3 - 4 % and a dividend
yield half that.
If you net out the cash, it's closer to 9x
earnings, 9x times
earnings for a growing, profitable, solid business — a double - digit
earnings yield — tremendously attractive for the long - term value
investor.
So typically, value
investors select stocks with lower - than - average price - to - book or price - to -
earnings ratios and / or high dividend
yields.