Now Eli, to be sure, really doesn't know what is going on between Richard Muller and Judy Curry, but this he does know, Judy is listed as an author on all of the five Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature papers, and the papers have been submitted for review (given some of the comments at places like Tamino and Real Climate, they are going to be improved before published).
Not exact matches
For their
paper, published in Applied Geography, researchers at the
Earth Institute at Columbia University and Battelle Memorial Institute studied air
temperature data from weather stations, land
surface temperatures measured by satellites and socioeconomic data.
Additionally, the
paper supports the theory that heat storage in the deep ocean may be partly responsible for the parallel pause in
Earth's
surface temperatures over the past 13 years.
Pierre, could you comment on what, exactly, is new in the recent Philipona
paper, compared with the two similar
papers they published last year («Greenhouse forcing outweighs decreasing solar radiation driving rapid
temperature rise over land», «Radiative forcing — measured at
Earth's
surface — corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect»)?
The Science
paper was part of a large effort by Karl and others at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, as well as climate analytics specialist James McMahon of LMI Consulting, to develop the most accurate possible record of the
Earth's
surface temperature, based on thermometers.
The new
paper, «A New Estimate of the Average
Earth Surface Land
Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011,» has been posted, along with extensive related material, including a list of responses to frequent questions, including these:
The key points of the
paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the
surface air
temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the
Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
That
paper appears to have taken the long established science involving gravity and the Gas Laws and refined it so as to show that the AGW theory relating to the supposed radiative capabilities of so called greenhouse gases is incorrect and unnecessary as an explanation for
Earth's
surface temperature.
3 Atmospheric Scientists: Greenhouse Effect Based On «Physically Irrelevant Assumptions» Yet another new scientific
paper has been published that questions the current understanding of the
Earth's globally averaged
surface temperature and its relation to the theoretical greenhouse effect.
As others have noted, the IPCC Team has gone absolutely feral about Salby's research and the most recent
paper by Dr Roy Spencer, at the University of Alabama (On the Misdiagnosis of
Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in
Earth's Radiant Energy Balance), for one simple reason: both are based on empirical, undoctored satellite observations, which, depending on the measure required, now extend into the past by up to 32 years, i.e. long enough to begin evaluating real climate trends; whereas much of the Team's science in AR4 (2007) is based on primitive climate models generated from primitive and potentially unreliable land measurements and proxies, which have been «filtered» to achieve certain artificial realities (There are other more scathing descriptions of this process I won't use).
This analysis is in the
paper «
Earth Atmospheric Land
Surface Temperature and Station Quality in the United States», available here.
Figure 3 in the
paper by Judith Lean indicates that the cyclical amplitude of
Earth's
surface temperature is about 0.1 K, so the solar variational effect is not significant.
Richard Muller is the head of the Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project, which has just made available a preliminary
paper (not yet having passed the peer - review process) regarding the causes of the recent global warming.
Because while adhering to procedure he allowed the Spencer and Braswell
paper «On the Misdiagnosis of
Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in
Earth's Radiant Energy Balance» to be published, as it should have been published.
On the new
paper «On the Misdiagnosis Of
Surface Temperature Feedbacks From Variations In
Earth's Radiant Energy Balance» By Spencer and Braswell 2011 and the subsequent Reuters headline «New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism»
«The pre-release of this
paper follows the practice embraced by Dr. Richard Muller, of the Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature project»
The pre-release of this
paper follows the practice embraced by Dr. Richard Muller, of the Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature project in a June 2011 interview with Scientific American's Michael Lemonick in «Science Talk», said:
Congrats on your recent
paper «On the Misdiagnosis Of
Surface Temperature Feedbacks From Variations In
Earth's Radiant Energy Balance» By Spencer and Braswell 2011.
Crok is a freelance science writer from The Netherlands and Lewis, an independent climate scientist, was an author on two recent important
papers regarding the determination of the
earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)-- that is, how much the
earth's average
surface temperature will rise as a result of a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.
We have two new entries to the long (and growing) list of
papers appearing the in recent scientific literature that argue that the
earth's climate sensitivity — the ultimate rise in the
earth's average
surface temperature from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide content — is close to 2 °C, or near the low end of the range of possible values presented by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The abstract is here and a preprint version of the
paper is available from the Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature website here.
In a
paper, «Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of
Earth's Climate System» soon to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (and discussed briefly at RealClimate a few weeks back), Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Laboratory estimates climate sensitivity using observed 20th - century data on ocean heat content and global
surface temperature.
The Activist teacher
paper asserts: «It is a violation of Kirchoff's Law to admit -LCB- a -RCB- = 0.30 yet use -LCB- ε -RCB- = 1 in calculating the
Earth's
surface temperature, irrespective of the assumed amount of greenhouse effect.»
It turns out that Spencer and Braswell have an almost perfect title for their
paper: «the misdiagnosis of
surface temperature feedbacks from variations in the
Earth's Radiant Energy Balance» (leaving out the «On»).»
But the heart of his
paper is the construction from published metereological data of a table of mean
temperature and relative and absolute humidity for the
surface of the
earth between 60 degrees south and 70 degrees north.
At that point the
surface temperature of
Earth will be well above the ignition
temperature not only of
paper but of all carbon - based compounds, turning them all into the gas CO2.
The
paper's title «On the Misdiagnosis of
Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in
Earth's Radiant Energy Balance» is provocative and should have raised red flags with the editors.
The
paper (HYPERLINKED) and Excel spreadsheet («CO2 vs T»)(HYPERLINKED) show that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lag (occur after) variations in
Earth's
Surface Temperature by ~ 9 months.
In 1994 Lindzen stated his thoughts concerning the constraints on the spatial
temperature distribution at the
Earth's
surface in a
paper he co-authored with Sun.
* According to the Berkeley group, the
Earth's
surface temperature will have risen (on average) slightly less than what indicated by NASA, NOAA and the Met Office * Differences will be on the edge of statistical significance, leaving a lot open to subjective interpretation * Several attempts will be made by climate change conformists and True Believers to smear the work of BEST, and to prevent them from publishing their data * After publication, organised groups of people will try to cloud the issue to the point of leaving the public unsure about what exactly was found by BEST * New questions will be raised regarding UHI, however the next IPCC assessment's first draft will be singularly forgetful of any peer - reviewed
paper on the topic * We will all be left with a slightly - warming world, the only other certitude being that all mitigation efforts will be among the stupidest ideas that ever sprung to human mind.