Sentences with phrase «economic models predict»

No economic model predicts that the growth created by these reforms will make up for the hit to the deficit.

In a USA context, an economic model predicted that the costs of Triple P could be recovered in 1 year through a modest 10 % reduction in the rate of child abuse and neglect (Foster et al., 2008).

Not exact matches

The Penn Wharton Budget Model predicts the added debt eventually would reduce economic growth, as money that might have been spent on productive investment instead ends up in the market for government bonds.

Republicans talk of sparking economic growth rates in the range of four per cent, but models run by non-partisan forecasters, such as the Wharton business school at the University of Pennsylvania, predict only a modest increase over the shorter term.

LONDON — One of the Bank of England's most senior policymakers has acknowledged that the central bank is unlikely to predict the next financial crisis or even the next recession in the UK because economic models are simply not good enough.

Quantitative investing assumes that future performance of a security relative to other securities may be predicted based on historical economic and financial factors, however, any errors in a model used might not be detected until the fund has sustained a loss or reduced performance related to such errors.

Since every model helps to shape the events it intends to describe and predict, it is important for the economic model to encourage the growth of the sense of world community.

The model used the state's laws and commonly used tax incentives to predict total economic development spending beyond numbers reported by state government.

«Many previous studies have shown that people's political views can not be predicted by standard economic models,» Petersen explains.

Hertel and doctoral student Uris Baldos developed a combination of economic models — one that captures the main drivers of crop supply and demand and another that assesses food security based on caloric consumption — to predict how global food security from 2006 to 2050 could be affected by changes in population, income, bioenergy, agricultural productivity and climate.

In that case, models predicted slower than actual economic growth in the developing world.

Peter Turchin's model predicting outbursts of political collapse and social violence, which follow economic cycles in history, is undoubtedly correct.

His story «The Machine That Would Predict the Future» explores the promise of the FuturICT project, an attempt to build a computer model of all the social, economic, ecological and scientific factors at play in the world.

The new numbers will be used in models created by economists, environmentalists, and governments who use population estimates to predict pollution and global warming levels; prepare for epidemics; determine road, school, and other infrastructure requirements; and forecast worldwide economic trends.

The authors appear most concerned about the usefulness of the predictive economic models (whether the models were able to correctly predict the results observed in the date mined).

Keywords: Risk management, measuring uncertainty, failure of models that predict failure, complexity theory, standard out of equilibrium level, irrational expectations on economic rational actor model.

Category: English, North America, Transversal Studies, Your experiences, Your ideas · Tags: complexity theory, failure of models that predict failure, irrational expectations on economic rational actor model, measuring uncertainty, Risk management, standard out of equilibrium level

Quantitative Analysis is referred to as the economic, business or financial analysis that aims to predict or understand behaviour or events through the use of mathematical measurements and calculations, statistical modelling and research.

But is your mid-long-term model capable of «predicting» such significant corrections not induced by adverse economic factors (such as 2011 and 2015)?

by Rob Bennett The premise of the Buy - and - Hold Model is that price changes can not be predicted because they are determined by unforeseeable economic developments.

Likewise, predicting the future is notoriously difficult, particularly based on economic and finance models that are imperfect at best.

Such economic models are just fiendishly challenging, though — how can you predict the rate of technological advancement, for example?

Synapse implements, assesses, and adapts many commonly used macroeconomic models, including IMPLAN and REMI, to predict the cascading economic and job impacts of capital projects and spending.

The biggest failing of the economic models that predict ruin is that they are unable to account for the industries that will, over time, grow to replace the fossil - fuel based industries.

One widely - used model assumes that economic growth rates will not be affected by climate change, thereby predicting that half of the world's economic activity would continue after a whopping 18 degrees C of global warming.

Today's climate models are even more clever and complex, dependent on questionable assumptions and massaged data, unable to predict temperatures or climate events, and employed to justify costly energy and economic policies.

«Economic models are not very good at predicting anything.

Predicting the cost impact of various potential warming scenarios requires us to concatenate these climate predictions with economic models that predict the cost impact of these predicted temperature changes on the economy in the 21st, 22nd, and 23rd centuries.

The paper incorporates data - driven estimates of the value of fuel economy into an automotive market simulation model that has three components: a consumer demand function that predicts consumers» vehicle choices as functions of vehicle price, fuel price, and vehicle attributes (the new estimates of the value of fuel economy are used to set the parameters of the demand function); an engineering and economic evaluation of feasible fuel economy improvements by 2010; and a game theoretic analysis of manufacturers» competitive interactions.

An economic model designed to predict consumer response to real - time pricing found that in the mid-Atlantic states, peak load would be reduced by 10 to 15 %.

For total displacement of people, the modelling suggests that 70 % can be predicted by population growth and economic growth from 10 years before.

It is the first model to include energy use per person — which has more than doubled since 1950 — alongside economic and population growth as a way of predicting carbon emissions and corresponding temperature increases.

My UQ research group (Risk and Sustainable Management Group) did the economic modelling that translated the climatic projections into predicted changes in land and water use.

Summarizing the value of all these changes into a single estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) requires complex integrated assessment models that predict both environmental and economic outcomes and attach estimates of the value of those outcomes.

helps explain why the Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen predicted in 2013 that as many as half of the nation's universities may go bankrupt in the next 15 years... America's institutions of higher education, is based on a fundamentally unsustainable social and economic model.

There are no models that can predict ENSO, volcanoes and solar intensity, In addition economic development in China has produced a large amount of sulfate aerosals.

The ability to predict retrospectively this slowdown not only strengthens our confidence in the robustness of our climate models, but also enhances the socio - economic relevance of operational decadal climate predictions.

And, as you're trying to predict future greenhouse gas emissions, you have to start throwing economic assumptions into the models on top of the physical assumptions you threw in for question 2.

However, the climate projections that are incorporated in Tol's economic model are likely wrong — they predict too much warming from future carbon dioxide emissions.

Most models of economic impacts discount the effect of events in the distant future, because they can not be predicted as easily.

Not only do the economic climate models need to predict policy shifts, population growth, and the pace and type of climate changes to come — more droughts, more severe storms, higher temperatures in some places and lower in others, etc. — but they also try to quantify things such as agricultural and forestry losses, damage from catastrophic storms, utility costs, savings from efficiency improvements, water shortages, and sometimes even the economic consequences of refugee flows.

One of the problems with relying on EPRI's or any of the economic models to predict the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions is that they assume that political decisions will be made in a rational, orderly way that will allow economic decisions to be made in an efficient way.

Think of the models attempting to predict world energy demand in 2080, or the economic impacts of (uncertain) temperature increases 300 years from now (that would be the Social Cost of Carbon).

Led initiative to build statistical models using historical data to predict real estate prices in several economic markets.

Based on economic models of mating psychology (Kenrick et al., 1993; Li et al., 2002), we predict that (self - perceived) mate value will be correlated with desire for all of the mate preference factors in the long - term context but just physical attractiveness in the short - term mating context.

The top markets for price appreciation likely will be in Seattle, Wash.; Portland, Ore.; Denver, Colo.; and Boston, predicts Eric Fox, vice president of statistical and economic modeling at VeroForecast.