Sentences with phrase «estimating climate change effects»

Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States.

Not exact matches

If current estimates are correct that the leakage rate is around 3 percent, then we calculated that switching all coal plants to average - efficiency natural gas plants would have little effect on the power sector's contribution to climate change.

Christian Aid estimated a couple of months ago that 184 million Africans could die this century from the effects of climate change.

A study by Laura Carbognin at the Institute of Marine Sciences in Venice and colleagues provides the best estimate yet of how the city will cope with the effects of climate change.

A new study attempts to estimate the effects of climate change on global agriculture — and outline ways to mitigate its most dire consequences

Seasonal changes in precipitation and water storage make it difficult for modelers to estimate water availability and impacts of interventions, and the effects of climate change can be difficult to tease out from other impacts like human activities.

The full effects on the global climate will come later, and even if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises at double today's levels the International Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) estimates that by end of the 21st century the global temperature will have increased by between 1.5 °C and 4.5 °C.

The study applied «medium to high» future emissions estimates of heat - trapping gases, as assumed by the California state government, to models designed to assess what effect climate change would have on national parks like Yosemite, Death Valley, Redwood, Joshua Tree and Sequoia.

Current estimates of sea - level rise by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consider only the effect of melting ice sheets, thermal expansion and anthropogenic intervention in water storage on land.

7It is particularly ironic that Lomborg would offer such a ridiculously precise estimate of the cost of the impacts of climate change from carbon dioxide emissions, inasmuch as the entire thrust of his books chapter on «global warming» is that practically nothing about the effects of greenhouse gases is known with certainty.

Previous studies have estimated the effect of climate change and population growth on wildfire patterns and the risk of damage to buildings and homes in California.

According to one study that looked at eight fuel aridity metrics in the Western U.S. and modeled climate change's effects on them, human - caused climate change accounted for about 55 percent of the observed increases in fuel aridity between 1979 and 2015 (Figure 6), and added an estimated 4.2 million hectares of forest fire area between 1984 and 2015.7 Based on all eight metrics, the Western U.S. experienced an average of 9 additional days per year of high fire potential due to climate change between 2000 and 2015, a 50 percent increase from the baseline of 17 days per year when looking back to 1979.

In estimating climate sensitivity such effects must be controlled for, and subtracted out to yield the portion of climate change attributable to CO2.

A judgment of each estimate's reliability is given as a level of scientific understanding based on uncertainties in the climate change agents and physical understanding of their radiative effects.

It's not necessarily obvious to the uninitiated what a huge effect this ~ 2ºC uncertainty in ECS estimates has on scenarios that attempt to predict the magnitude and timing of climate change impacts (e.g. the AR5 RCPs).

The prize is awarded for «ground - breaking work that provides a powerful estimate of the effects of climate change on the global hydrological cycle, with a clear explanation of the global water budget.»

This 2006 study found that the effect of amplifying feedbacks in the climate system — where global warming boosts atmospheric CO2 levels — «will promote warming by an extra 15 percent to 78 percent on a century - scale» compared to typical estimates by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate system — where global warming boosts atmospheric CO2 levels — «will promote warming by an extra 15 percent to 78 percent on a century - scale» compared to typical estimates by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change.

In the original article Angela did write: «This effect, called the permafrost carbon feedback, is not present in the global climate change models used to estimate how warm the earth could get over the next century.»

This effect, called the permafrost carbon feedback, is not present in the global climate change models used to estimate how warm the earth could get over the next century.

It is estimated, for example, that none of the [Millennium Development Goals] targets will be met in sub-Saharan Africa if current trends continue, and this is before account is taken of the real effects of the recent crises in food and energy, the rapid increase in impacts of climate change, and the major implications of a global economic slowdown.»

``... estimates of future rises remain hazy, mostly because there are many uncertainties, from the lack of data on what ice sheets did in the past to predict how they will react to warming, insufficient long - term satellite data to unpick the effects of natural climate change from that caused by man and a spottiness in the degree to which places such as Antarctica have warmed....

It's not necessarily obvious to the uninitiated what a huge effect this ~ 2ºC uncertainty in ECS estimates has on scenarios that attempt to predict the magnitude and timing of climate change impacts (e.g. the AR5 RCPs).

Thanks Pete and Gavin for your response in # 116 that the estimates for future temperature change being discussed in the climate sensitivity studies (discussed in this thread) do not generally take into account the effect of increased temperature on initiating further natural carbon release.

In their research, team members used advanced computer models of the climate system to estimate changes in the tropopause height that likely result from anthropogenic effects.

Last summer, government scientists predicted that, as a result of climate change, polar bears may disappear from the U.S. and its waters entirely by 2050 — and that estimate doesn't even take into account potential effects from new oil and gas activities.

Regarding the effects of climate change and their costs, «every single estimate that people have come up with has been exceeded by reality», said Pachauri.

Estimates of CO2 level and average global temperature trajectory (no sustained temperature change) for the last 500 million years is evidence CO2 has no effect on climate.

How can one estimate the effect of a change in atmospheric CO ₂ without reference to climate sensitivity?

At the EPA, Dr. Carter integrated the effects of climate change into estimates of future coastal inundation on contaminated lands, such as brownfields and superfund sites, to help guide decisions on adaptation efforts that could better protect nearby communities from the spread of dangerous contaminants during future floods.

The prize is awarded for «ground - breaking work that provides a powerful estimate of the effects of climate change on the... Continue reading →

Estimates made assuming no change in regulatory controls or population characteristics have ranged from 1,000 to 4,300 additional premature deaths nationally per year by 2050 from combined ozone and particle health effects.151, 9,152 There is less certainty in the responses of airborne particles to climate change than there is about the response of ozone.

The IPCC has estimated that aviation is responsible for around 3.5 % of anthropogenic climate change, a figure which includes both CO2 and non-CO2induced effects.

The Hydrologic Impacts theme is concerned with estimating the effects of climate variability and change on water resources using downscaled global climate models and hydrologic models.

Further climate change is expected to intensify these effects on North Sea plankton, cod, and marine ecosystems.7 By 2100, scientists estimate that average world sea surface temperatures could rise as much as 5.4 ° F (3 ° C) if our heat - trapping emissions continue unabated.13, 14

In general, these studies have shown that different ways of creating scenarios from the same source (a global - scale climate model) can lead to substantial differences in the estimated effect of climate change, but that hydrological model uncertainty may be smaller than errors in the modelling procedure or differences in climate scenarios (Jha et al., 2004; Arnell, 2005; Wilby, 2005; Kay et al., 2006a, b).

Methodological advances since the TAR have focused on exploring the effects of different ways of downscaling from the climate model scale to the catchment scale (e.g., Wood et al., 2004), the use of regional climate models to create scenarios or drive hydrological models (e.g., Arnell et al., 2003; Shabalova et al., 2003; Andreasson et al., 2004; Meleshko et al., 2004; Payne et al., 2004; Kay et al., 2006b; Fowler et al., 2007; Graham et al., 2007a, b; Prudhomme and Davies, 2007), ways of applying scenarios to observed climate data (Drogue et al., 2004), and the effect of hydrological model uncertainty on estimated impacts of climate change (Arnell, 2005).

In the article Zenghelis was commenting on, Tol compares the IPCC's conclusions on climate change costs with what he considers to be biased estimates in the Stern review on the economic effects of climate change.

This 2006 study found that the effect of amplifying feedbacks in the climate system — where global warming boosts atmospheric CO2 levels — «will promote warming by an extra 15 percent to 78 percent on a century - scale» compared to typical estimates by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate system — where global warming boosts atmospheric CO2 levels — «will promote warming by an extra 15 percent to 78 percent on a century - scale» compared to typical estimates by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate Change.

In 2005, I argued that ice sheets may be more vulnerable than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated, mainly because of effects of a warming ocean in speeding ice melt.

• Poles to tropics temperature gradient, average temp of tropics over past 540 Ma; and arguably warming may be net - beneficial overall • Quotes from IPCC AR4 WG1 showing that warming would be beneficial for life, not damaging • Quotes from IPCC AR5 WG3 stating (in effect) that the damage functions used for estimating damages are not supported by evidence • Richard Tol's breakdown of economic impacts of GW by sector • Economic damages of climate change — about the IAMs • McKitrick — Social Cost of Carbon much lower than commonly stated • Bias on impacts of GHG emissions — Figure 1 is a chart showing 15 recent estimates of SCC — Lewis and Curry, 2015, has the lowest uncertainty range.

Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth also notes that the change in the estimated aerosol forcing is mainly associated with indirect aerosol effects, but half of GCMs don't include these indirect effects, and those that do actually tend to simulate less warming.

The study estimates climate sensitivity — how much the world will warm when carbon dioxide levels increase * — from changes in observed temperatures and estimates of the warming effect of greenhouse gases and other drivers of climate change, from the mid / late 19th century until 2016.

In the real world, the number of weather - related natural disasters has tripled in the last 30 years, and the World Health Organization estimates that 150,000 people are already dying annually from the effects of climate change.

So, I again restate it by saying the cycles may have varied such as to increase or diminish any change to the assumed effect of AGW and, therefore, your estimate of climate sensitivity is erroneous for the same reason that all such atribution studies in the IPCC AR4 are erroneous.

As I recall he falls in the Tol / Curry / Lomborg school of focusing on the lower end of estimates of climate change sensitivity and related effects, the «sure, some warming may be happening and maybe humans are responsible for some of it but who's to say it will be bad?»

Even if the climate is not quite as sensitive to the increased greenhouse effect as current best estimates suggest, we're still not doing enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if we want to avoid dangerous and potentially catastrophic climate change.

The estimate does not include «external effects such as those that take place through water, soils, noise, and other media,» nor carbon dioxide and its effect on climate change.

The Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation estimates the net effect on yields to be small worldwide at 2 °C, although regional changes are possible.

Importantly, this baseline estimate assumes no effect from climate change.

Alternatively, you can take an estimate of anthropogenic effects (e.g. the calculated change in equilibrium climate mean temp), and from that you can derive a conclusion about the natural variation.