Recent
European election polls have varied wildly with some showing Ukip with a clear lead, while others have shown Labour and even the Tories ahead.
Not exact matches
As Britons headed to the
polls on Thursday, it's worth highlighting how the general
election could influence the course of that country's exit, or «Brexit,» from the
European Union — particularly as the race appears to have tightened in recent weeks.
«Although recent history shows there is reason to be skeptical of political
polls, we do not believe populist parties will score victories significant enough in national
elections to cause an existential threat to the
European Union (EU).»
In the first such event of a year crowded with
European elections, the Netherlands prepared to go to the
polls in mid-March, potentially providing an early reading of political sentiment among
European voters following several populist upsets in 2016.
The 2008 local
elections and the 2009
European elections followed in due course; by 2010 the machine was well - oiled enough that in the final week before
polling day it was a case of getting rid of surplus leaflets rather than rushing to target specific areas.
Since McCartney's selection in March 2007 - «an absolute lifetime ago» - the Conservatives took 2,000 votes off the Lib Dems in the 2008
elections before topping the
poll in the
European elections «for the first time in living memory».
This analysis confirms what we might have anticipated from the evidence of the
polls — local authorities appear to contain more Leave voters if there was a large vote for UKIP there in the 2014
European elections, if there was a small vote for parties of the «left» (Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists and Greens) on the same occasion, and in places with relatively low proportions of graduates, young people, and people from an ethnic minority background.
The results of the local and
European elections look set to go to the wire, with the last batch of opinion
polls putting Labour and Ukip neck - and - neck
My research in 2014 has included a weekly national telephone
poll, surveys in over 100 marginal seats, two rounds of my Project Blueprint research on the quest for a Conservative majority, a detailed study of voters» attitudes to Europe,
polling - day surveys of voters in the
European elections, five by -
election polls, and regular updates on the state of the parties.
The UK Independence Party tends to
poll significantly better in
European Parliament
elections than it does in Westminster general
elections.
Nick Bourne AM is pictured with David Cameron on the day after this year's
European Elections when the Conservatives topped the
poll across Wales (Photograph by Mark Jones).
Earlier this year they topped the
poll in the
European elections.
According to a Telegraph / ICM
poll published on 19 April, the upcoming
European Parliament
elections lead to a dismal result for the Conservative party, which is predicted to finish third, after Labour and UKIP.
As opinion
polls and results from local and
European Parliament
elections showed, promising to abolish tuition fees at the last
election proved to be a colossal error.
At the
European election in June the Conservatives beat Labour in the popular vote in Wales for the first time in living memory, and if the findings of this
poll were replicated at the general
election, it looks like being a close run thing again at the general
election.
A Com / Res
poll for ITV on 30 April put UKIP 11 points ahead of Labour, with 38 % of voters saying they intend to vote for Nigel Farage's party at the
European and local
elections on 22 May.
With
European elections due to be held in June 2014 (a ComRes
poll at the weekend put UKIP in second place on 23 per cent, a point ahead of the Tories), the party intends to make it a major campaign issue.
When Survation last
polled on the issue before the
European elections, Yes had a 10 point lead, half what it is now.
We now know that these larger
poll numbers were predicated on large numbers of potential voters who were powerfully demotivated; witness the Labour voters who stayed at home at the 2009
European elections.
Lord Ashcroft's
poll of UKIP voters in last week's
European election found just over half had supported the Tories at the 2010
election.
The Democratic Party under former prime minister Matteo Renzi has sunk from 25 % of the vote in 2013 (and an astounding 40.8 % of the vote in the 2014
European elections) to 21.9 % in
polls today.
The French president, François Hollande, has warned that Europe risks «regression and paralysis» if Eurosceptics and nationalists gain the upper hand in next year's
European parliament
elections, as an opinion
poll for the first time put the anti-immigrant National Front (NF) well ahead of his country's mainstream parties.
The Ifop
poll in the newspaper Le Nouvel Observateur gave Marine Le Pen's National Front 24 % in the
European contest, five points ahead of Hollande's socialists and almost four times what the far - right party achieved in the last
European election, in 2009.
Labour is facing a wipe - out during this week's
European and local
elections, with
polls indicating it is being disproportionately affected by the expenses scandal.
The
polls of Conservative - held Ukip targets found the party failing to make breakthroughs even in seats where they won their best results in last year's
European elections.
The latest controversy comes as
polls show that Ukip remains on course for a remarkably close victory in the
European elections.
The local and
European elections are coming, with Britain going to the
polls on June 4th.
European elections are low turnout
elections, so some of the errors may have been down to too strict turnout filters (ComRes used a very strict turnout filter for Euros and would probably have been better if they'd used the method they use for general
election polling.
Norwegians go to the
polls next week to chose a new government, but the issue of joining the
European Union is not one that has featured in this year's
election campaigns.
There were no telephone
polls for the
European election, so it can tell us nothing of them.
Four hundred million people across Europe will be able to cast their vote in May's
elections to the
European Parliament, with
polls suggesting gains for far - left, far - right and Eurosceptic parties.
Austria's far right increased its vote on the last
European election but was well down on its percentage in last year's national
polls
On the issue of prompting, for example, every company prompted for UKIP in their
European polling, whereas only Survation do it for general
elections.
The
European elections pushed them up to 4 % or so, and since them other
polls have shown them building on that, in many cases getting their highest levels of support since their first breakthrough back in the late 80s.
In Tower Hamlets, the High Court suspended the Mayor, Lutfur Rahman, after he was found guilty of falsifying postal votes and putting undue pressure on voters at
polling stations during the 2014 local and
European elections.
Conservative attempts at tackling this have so far proven unsuccessful: Ukip has held steady in the
polls, topped May's
European Parliament
elections, and on Thursday Douglas Carswell won the party's first (elected) seat in parliament by 35 points over his former party, and nearly 50 more than Labour.
In the 2009 Flemish and
European elections, Lijst Dedecker won a disappointing 8 seats in the Flemish Parliament and 1 seat in the
European Parliament despite pre-election
polls that had indicated a bigger share of the votes for Lijst Dedecker.
According to public opinion
polls conducted by daily newspaper Delo on April 7 and 8, the party standings for the
European elections were: the Slovenian Democratic Party would win with 20.8 %, followed by the Slovenian National Party with 12.1 %, and the joint list of New Slovenia and Slovenian People's Party with 11.5 %.
UKIP is likely to receive its best ever
election results in the
European elections in May, with leader Nigel Farage claiming his party could top the
poll.
And yet last week, Labour lost control of the council here and then
polled fewer than half as many votes as UKIP in the
European elections.
The
poll found that despite the surging popularity of Nigel Farage's party, a quarter (23 %) of likely Ukip voters at the
European Parliamentary
elections say they are unlikely to vote for the party at the General
Election next year.
In 1989 the party
polled just 6.2 % and came fourth behind the Green Party in the
European elections, only to bounce back with a series of sensational by -
election victories.
«Top Cat» Owen is the only member of the current OMRLP line up ever to
poll over 1,000 votes (he
polled 2,859 votes in the 1994
European elections), and his dip in fortunes despite a previously strong local following appears to have killed the last realistic chance the party ever had of seeing a saved deposit.
When the former diplomat and Special Boat Service captain took over the helm of the newly - merged Social and Liberal Democrats in July 1988, the party had sunk to 5 per cent in the
polls, and shortly after came fourth behind the Greens in
European elections.
Local success is more crucial for UKIP's longevity than the battle for who tops the
poll in the
European election; real credibility and political presence will only be earned by winning seats, not just coming a close second across the country.
Perhaps even more impressively, his area was the only one where the Lib Dems topped the
poll in both the
European and even the Police and Crime Commissioner
elections.
ICM
polling on the
European election showed a strong lead for Labour on 36 %, compared to 25 % for the Tories (unchanged) and 20 % for Ukip (unchanged).
Nick Clegg today denied that the
European elections will be a test of his leadership after
polls suggesting the Liberal Democrats are heading for fifth place in May.
Fifteen million general
election voters do not bother to go to the
polling station for the
European polls and those who do are typically older, whiter and more eurosceptic than general
election voters.
The SNP have topped the
poll - for the first time ever in a
European election in Scotland.