No proper figures yet, but Matthew D'Ancona's column in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph is already up and reveals ICM have a new poll including
European election voting intentions, and that it shows Labour in third place with less than 20 %.
Judging by this and
the European election voting intention figures the fuss over the UKIP posters is more likely to have helped their support than damaged it.
There is even better news for UKIP and the Greens on
European election voting intention.
On
European election voting intentions, Labour (32 per cent) lead Ukip (21 per cent) with the Conservatives and the Greens tied on 16 per cent each, and the LibDems on 8 per cent.
Labour's share of
the European election vote was 25 per cent and its national equivalent vote (NEV) share of the local election vote (Rallings & Thrasher) was 31 per cent.
The SNP has won the largest share of
the European election vote in Scotland for the first time, beating Labour into second place.
Not exact matches
Sugar said: «If [politicians] lie, which results in massive decisions like leaving the
European Union, or gaining
votes in a general
election, then this should be a criminal offence as it would be in a public company if I lied to my shareholders.»
More broadly, concerns about trade and its impact on workers figured large in the 2016 U.S. presidential
election and in Britain's referendum
vote to leave the
European Union, a free - trade bloc.
While the United States has been embroiled in pre-presidential
election drama and speculation about what might trigger the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the United Kingdom
voted to leave the
European Union and multiple central banks worldwide turned to a negative interest - rate policy in an attempt to stimulate growth.
The British people will
vote next week in a national
election to decide the country's fate within the
European Union.
Given the big surprises of 2016 in regards to the Brexit
vote to exit the
European Union (EU) and the U.S. presidential
election, we are especially attuned to the potential impact of events ahead on the global landscape as we head into 2017.
People are now
voting in PR
elections for the
European Parliament, the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly, Scottish local councils and the Greater London Assembly.
Since McCartney's selection in March 2007 - «an absolute lifetime ago» - the Conservatives took 2,000
votes off the Lib Dems in the 2008
elections before topping the poll in the
European elections «for the first time in living memory».
In 2014, 300 million eligible voters across the
European Union (EU) will have the opportunity to cast their
vote in the
elections for the second - largest legislative body in the world: the
European Parliament.
This analysis confirms what we might have anticipated from the evidence of the polls — local authorities appear to contain more Leave voters if there was a large
vote for UKIP there in the 2014
European elections, if there was a small
vote for parties of the «left» (Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists and Greens) on the same occasion, and in places with relatively low proportions of graduates, young people, and people from an ethnic minority background.
Labour could call for all
elections, from the
European Union to Parish Councils to be operated under the Alternative
Vote.
Worse still, having vowed to abandon the
European Union, Mrs May is driven into the arms of someone whose
election (like the Brexit
vote) was enthusiastically welcomed by every protectionist and nationalist in Europe, who seeks to destabilise the
European Union itself, who has questioned the importance of Nato and who seeks a new deal with Putin as a strongman whom he admires as someone he can do business with.
You might now look at recent US
election results and reason that even if the US would use the
European counting model, the number of
votes for other parties than Republicans and Democrats are usually so few that it wouldn't be enough for noteworthy representation in Congress.
Earlier this year the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) asked a representative sample of
Europeans the views they intend to express in their
vote during the
European elections in May (PDF).
There were few risks in
voting UKIP in the
European elections of 2014, when Nigel Farage's party secured the most
votes, a sensational triumph.
The
European Parliament has been given more powers by successive treaties, but less and less
Europeans have bothered to
vote in
European elections.
The «public interest» would strongly justify a quick acceptance of the result of the
European elections by the
European Council to ensure that the citizens feel that their
vote made the difference, and that the EU is not that complex and opaque bureaucracy that Eurosceptics want to dismantle.
Which parties are likely to lose out from a higher conversion of UKIP
votes in the 2014
European Parliament
elections to the 2015 Westminster general
election?
BRUSSELS (Reuters)- Marine Le Pen's far right National Front scored a stunning first victory in
European Parliament
elections in France on Sunday as critics of the
European Union registered a continent - wide protest
vote against austerity and mass unemployment.
He gained 2.01 % of the
vote as the lead candidate for the Eastern region in the 2009
European elections.
One of the most heavily reported outcomes of last week's
elections for the
European Parliament has been the «revolution on the right» — the large numbers of people who opted to
vote for far right, Eurosceptic...
UKIP secured 16.5 % of the overall
vote in the 2009
European Parliament
elections but just 3.1 % of the final share of
vote in the 2010 general
election.
More than half of people (57.6 %) intending to
vote for UKIP in the May 2014
European Parliament
election also intend to
vote for UKIP in the 2015 general
election, whereas the same proportion, those who intended to
vote UKIP in the 2009
European election and who intended to
vote UKIP in the 2010 UK general
election, (using 2009 BES panel data) was less than half that number (25.5 %) in 2009.
All the support gained in by -
elections and in the
European elections fell away in terms of seats, despite taking almost 13 % of the national
vote.
The decisive issues in the latest
European elections were austerity and racism, with parties implementing austerity continuing to lose
votes.
The Internet has played a part, as has the introduction of proportional representation at various non-Westminster
elections:
voting is habit - forming and people who have backed smaller parties at, say, Scottish or
European elections can not automatically be recalled to their older national allegiances.
For example, one Lithuanian citizen was confused that she couldn't
vote in the general
election, even though she could in local and
European elections.
The People's party of Spain narrowly beat out the Socialists in the
European elections, but with smaller insurgent parties winning two out of every five
votes the Spanish media dubbed the result a «punishment» for Spain's two dominant political parties.
Moreover, analysis of
voting behaviour during the 2014
European election shows that 21 per cent of Green voters had supported Liberal Democrat candidates in the 2010 general
election; 18 per cent had
voted Labour; and a further 18 per cent had have
voted Green.
There has been more constitutional reform over this period than really ever in history, both in the Lords and in the introduction of different forms of
voting than First Past the Post in the
European elections and local
elections in some places and so on.
The translation of UKIP
votes from the
European Parliament
elections on May 22nd 2014 to the Westminster general
election on May 7th 2015 looks likely to be much higher.
Only three out of ten young people say they will definitely
vote in the
European elections.
British
Election Study data released today (collected between February and March 2014) shows that 17 % of people intend to
vote for UKIP in the May
European Parliament
elections (23 % when counting only people giving a party choice, excluding «don't know» responses).
At the
European election in June the Conservatives beat Labour in the popular
vote in Wales for the first time in living memory, and if the findings of this poll were replicated at the general
election, it looks like being a close run thing again at the general
election.
A Com / Res poll for ITV on 30 April put UKIP 11 points ahead of Labour, with 38 % of voters saying they intend to
vote for Nigel Farage's party at the
European and local
elections on 22 May.
Competition between two presidential candidates may also influence
voting in the
European elections.
These findings will be cause for concern to the major British parties — especially the Conservatives — and will mean the results of the forthcoming
European Parliament
elections will be taken especially seriously when looking ahead to the likely
vote shares of the parties in 2015.
Although there are problems with predicting the Liberal Democrat
vote the model suggests that they will be substantially down on their 2010
vote but will perhaps not face the routing they did at the
European Parliament
elections.
After the 2009
European Parliament
elections, only 28 % of UKIP voters in the BES survey said they were planning on
voting UKIP again at the next general
election.
Data from British
Election Study panel surveys shows that the main problem UKIP has faced in translating its success from
European Parliament
elections to general
elections has been retaining voters, whether because some UKIP voters only
vote UKIP at
European Parliament
elections in protest and the return to their «normal» party for general
elections or because the nature of the British electoral system incentivises voters to cast their
vote for one of the existing main parties rather than a new entrant.
The anti-politics
vote which propelled Ukip to an unprecedented victory in this year's
European elections could play a decisive role north of the border next Thursday, too.
Lastly, the plebiscitary principle is often applied in
European democracies when the strongest party seems disqualified from forming a government because its
vote share has stagnated or even decreased in the preceding
election.
European Parliament
elections also seem to be becoming worse predictors of general
election results (the same is not true for local
elections)-- the difference between
vote shares at
European and general
elections for the 1999 EP
election was 7.5, 8.5 for 2004, and 10.3 in 2009.
After all, in this year's
European elections the Conservatives barely managed to notch up half the amount of
votes won by Ukip.
Perhaps the first indication that the Greens are quietly gaining
votes from the Liberal Democrats was demonstrated in the
European Parliamentary
elections in May when the Greens returned three MEP's in comparison to the Liberal Democrats one to the
European Parliament.