Sentences with phrase «fed tightening cycles»

One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly with fed funds.

Interest rate - hiking cycles were measured by Fed tightening cycles.

Fed tightening cycles often end with a large explosion, where a large levered asset class that was better financed, was not financed well - enough.

Fed tightening cycles often start with a small explosion where short - dated financing for thinly capitalized speculators evaporates, because of the anticipation of higher financing rates.

This turns out to be a very common occurrence during Fed tightening cycles.

Note, however, that in each of the past three Fed tightening cycles, stable value fund returns continued to outpace money market fund returns.

One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly with fed funds.

«Remember, Fed tightening cycles start off benign but 10 of the 13 in the post-WWII era have ended in tears.»

But he also points out that 10 of the 13 postwar Fed tightening cycles have ended in unexpected recessions.

But this unexpectedly sanguine report was a reminder that the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle could be near, and the subsequent selloff is a clear sign that the U.S. market is vulnerable to higher volatility in the near term, even though we like the long - term prospects of stocks.

These arguments include the Fed Model, the advocacy of price / operating earnings ratios, supposed links between earnings growth and market returns, arguments that the end of a Fed tightening cycle is quickly favorable for stocks, etc..

In addition, with most countries in emerging Asia running a current account surplus and possessing sizable foreign currency reserves, I believe emerging Asia could be better positioned to withstand a Fed tightening cycle than other emerging markets.

An aggressive Fed tightening cycle or global risk - off scenario could pose a threat to the asset class, though we see the risk as low.

During the last Fed tightening cycle, long - term yields were held down by what former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke dubbed a «Global Savings Glut» — a substantial excess of desired savings over desired investment.

Every Fed tightening cycle eventually exposes and leads to the collapse of the bubbles de jure.

An aggressive Fed tightening cycle or global risk - off scenario could pose a threat to the asset class, though we see the risk as low.

But this unexpectedly sanguine report was a reminder that the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle could be near, and the subsequent selloff is a clear sign that the U.S. market is vulnerable to higher volatility in the near term, even though we like the long - term prospects of stocks.

Do I think that a Fed tightening cycle might cause an imminent U.S. recession?

Not exact matches

The Fed embarked on its first tightening cycle in more than a decade in December 2015.

If the Fed tightens enough to induce a recession, that's the end of the business cycle.»

Since the U.S. is the most advanced in its cycle, the Fed is at the forefront of the monetary tightening debate.

During this cycle of monetary tightening, the fed funds rate — the rate controlled by the Fed to influence borrowing costs — has been raised four timfed funds rate — the rate controlled by the Fed to influence borrowing costs — has been raised four timFed to influence borrowing costs — has been raised four times.

Fed has hiked 14 times and 10 yr rates are unchanged while 30 yr rates are 60bp lower than at the beginning of the tightening cycle.

«By the time 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries reach parity, as is almost the case now, the economy is typically slowing and the Fed is at or near the end of its tightening cycle.»

«Having learned its lesson, the Fed is trying to convince markets that getting off zero is not necessarily the start of a traditional policy tightening cycle,» says Zentner.

That would be a relatively low level by historical standards; in the past two tightening cycles by the Fed, the federal funds rate peaked at around 6 per cent.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week signaled the U.S. central bank is on track to raise rates this year, despite a weak first quarter that some analysts believe could force the Fed to wait longer before starting its first tightening cycle since 2004 - 2006.

Indeed, I believe the Fed will raise rates in a slow manner that doesn't excessively unsettle the economy or markets, with the gradual nature of the tightening cycle allowing markets to absorb the increases with relative ease.

Our interest rate outlook is also partly driven by the view that the BoC intentionally wants to lag the Fed in terms of its tightening cycle.

However, the Fed's emphasis on downside risks is injecting a degree of uncertainty — and volatility — into markets, a factor not lost on global policymakers that are calling on the Fed to end its handwringing and begin the tightening cycle.

In the U.S., I believe large - cap, cyclical - oriented companies look to be in a good position to withstand the start of the Fed's tightening cycle.

With the unemployment rate down to five percent and the Fed embarked on a tightening cycle, the argument runs, indicators will start returning to earlier, higher growth trends.

«While the Fed is moving in one direction and getting ready to raise interest rates and embark on a tightening cycle, the European Central Bank is going in the other direction and easing monetary policy,» says Eric Viloria, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

In the prior 27 midterm periods, the S&P 500 has rallied 12 % on average during the 10 months following the election; the return jumps to 22 % when the Fed is in the middle of a tightening cycle.

While the Fed is moving in one direction and getting ready to raise interest rates and embark on a tightening cycle, the European Central Bank is going in the other direction and easing monetary policy.

When the Fed does get closer to its dot - plot tightening cycle for short - term interest rates, I'll be there backing up the truck.

As this chart from Bespoke Investment Group shows, each seeming challenge from the news cycle — the Mueller probe, the debt ceiling, the Fed tightening — was deflected by markets that were determined to push higher.

The Fed has been in a tightening cycle for almost two years.

While the Fed has verbally committed to a shallow and short tightening cycle, interest rates are still likely to rise.

The inflationary impacts of our monetary policy continue to radiate out, and will continue to, until the Fed starts its next tightening cycle.

During 2004 a leading quantitative analyst predicted the the market multiple on the S&P 500 stocks would decline as interest rates increased, reflecting the Fed's tightening cycle.

For now, that volatility is being suppressed by the lethargic pace of the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) tightening cycle.

Not often, which is why the Fed was impotent during the last tightening cycle.

They can engage in fancy strategies where they try to remove policy accommodation either through rates or the size of the balance sheet, but one thing Fed history teaches us is that the Fed doesn't know what will happen when a tightening cycle starts, but usually it ends with a bang — some market blowing up.

In the U.S., I believe large - cap, cyclical - oriented companies look to be in a good position to withstand the start of the Fed's tightening cycle.

It follows that the Fed's normalization plans to make it to 2.75 % in this tightening cycle still leaves the institution without adequate ammunition.

My main point is this: even with the great powers that a central bank has, the next tightening cycle has ample reason for large negative surprises, leading to a premature end of the tightening cycle, and more muddling thereafter, or possibly, some scenario that the Treasury and Fed can't control.

But tightening the Fed funds rate is not easy, particularly toward the end of the cycle.