Kindle
Fire Sales Estimates & Kindle Fire HD Sales Estimates based on Browsing Share Among Tablets
Pacific Crest analyst Chad Bartley this week raised his Kindle
Fire sales estimates saying: «We are raising our 2012 sales forecasts to 14.9 million from 12.7 million.
Not exact matches
The company's comparable
sales for the third quarter were down 3 percent, including an
estimated negative impact from a
fire at one of its distribution centers in August.
The New Democrats have repeatedly attacked what they deride as a «
fire sale» of valuable assets, arguing it's irresponsible to count revenue from such
sales before they've happened and suggesting the
estimates themselves are unrealistic.
This could be seen as both an attempt to compete against the high
sales of the recently released new Nexus 7 FHD (
estimated to sell 3.5 million units in 2013), as well as be seen as an indication of the 3rd launch of new Kindle
Fire tablets drawing nearer.
So well, in fact, that on Sunday evening he raised his
estimate for fourth - quarter
Fire sales to six million units from five million, proclaiming the device a true tablet market contender.
By comparison, the $ 199 Kindle
Fire, which went on
sale last fall, has sold about 5 million, according to an average of
estimates by several analyst firms.
Is 6 million an accurate
estimate of Kindle
Fire sales, or should the number be lower or higher?
We don't have any comparable Kindle
Fire sales figures to contrast with that, but consider this: Analysts
estimate Amazon sold approximately 3.9 million Kindle
Fires in 2011.
That's Tricia Duryee at GeekWire, in Amazon
Fire Phone
sales estimated at 35,000 — equal to just 25 % of employee base.
The latest
estimate for the
Fire Phone, which debuted July 25, pegs
sales at no more than 35,000 during its first 25 days on the market — that's nearly one for every four employees currently working at the e-commerce giant.
As well as raising his expectations for
sales of the
Fire, Bartley also lowered his
sales estimate for Kindle ereaders from 28 million to just 24m but he pointed out that this was not as a result of the increase in
Fire sales and probably down ot more competition int he market.
Five million Kindle
Fire units becomes the first reliable
estimate of Kindle
sales (based on Apple, Samsung and Amazon supplied information rather than guesses from analysts.)
Let's look at ways to
estimate Kindle
Fire and Kindle
Fire HD
sales — both qualitatively and quantitatively.
Android tablet
sales spiked to an
estimated 39 percent of the tablet market last quarter, but by some measures, the Kindle
Fire accounts for 40 percent of all Android tablets sold during that time frame.
Amazon didn't release any Kindle
Fire sales figures, but iSuppli was able to
estimate the tablet's performance at a respectable 3.9 million units sold.
Bartley also increased his Kindle
Fire 2012
sales estimate from 12 million units to 14.9 miilion units, partly due to the expected new models.
Kopelman, who had previously
estimated that
sales of the Kindle
Fire tablet in 2012 would hit approximately 14 million units, has lowered his
estimates to 12 million.
Bartley also increased his Kindle
Fire 2012
sales estimate from 12 million units to
Chad Bartley of Pacific Crest has increased his Kindle
Fire 2012
sales estimate from 12 million units to 14.9 miilion units, partly due to the expected new models.
Despite selling an
estimated six million Kindle
Fire tablets during the holiday season alone, it is not seen as cutting into Apple's slice of the action as the company announced record iPad
sales for the three months leading up to Christmas.
Forrester Research
estimates Kindle
Fire sales for Q4 2011 to come in at 3 million units, based on the Nov. 15th release date.
However, let's be ultra conservative and say they
fire sale it for $ 50 mm (While at the lab I collected
estimates on the resale value of the equipment in the lab and
estimated the actual property inside to be worth $ 10 mm at a minimum).
Looking back, we enjoy the benefit of hindsight... but let's not under -
estimate the existential threat to the company at the time: Operating free cash flow was minimal, there was little opportunity to realise assets (except at
fire -
sale prices) in 2009 - 11, almost EUR 400 million of net losses, investment write - downs & goodwill impairments were recorded in the five years ending in 2012 (which actually understates a near - 85 % collapse in net equity), as the banks kept shrinking their committed facilities & imposing harsher terms (and seriously considering pulling the plug).