Even if all of George Osborne's proposals for further cutbacks between 2014 and 2017 were fully implemented, the total percentage point drop in expenditure would rank the current
fiscal squeeze in fifth position out of the eight shown in the table.
Christopher Hood, and Rozana Himaz are co-editors (together with David Heald) of the forthcoming book When the Party's Over: The Politics of
Fiscal Squeeze in Perspective, due to be published by Oxford University Press for the British Academy later this year.
The same applies to spending cuts in other countries in more recent times, such as Ireland in the late 1980s, or Sweden, Canada, New Zealand and Germany in the 1990s, which we compare in a forthcoming book When the Party's Over: The Politics of
Fiscal Squeeze in Perspective.
In our analysis of 100 years of
fiscal squeezes in the UK, we found that hard revenue or spending squeezes were associated with a 77 to 86 per cent likelihood of the incumbent parties in government losing at the next general election, compared with the 38 to 42 per cent likelihood of losing the next election that was associated with soft revenue and spending squeezes.
Not exact matches
States are caught
in an extended
fiscal squeeze caused by rising costs and lower tax receipts.
Buried
in the federal government's recent Update of Economic and
Fiscal Projections are figures showing the Harper government is set to
squeeze federal government's role to the smallest it has been
in seventy years.
They seldom delivered on the
fiscal responsibility bit or the money
in the bank, but they were pretty good at
squeezing public services by keeping a lid on revenues other than user fees.
In our analysis, the rarest type of fiscal squeeze is «double hard» when governments reduce public spending and increase tax revenue both in real terms and as a proportion of GD
In our analysis, the rarest type of
fiscal squeeze is «double hard» when governments reduce public spending and increase tax revenue both
in real terms and as a proportion of GD
in real terms and as a proportion of GDP.
A recent conference on the politics of
fiscal squeeze explored some these issues and looked at how it has played out
in different times and places.
And again the most recent
fiscal squeeze seems to fit a trend
in which increases
in tax revenue have played a smaller part
in fiscal austerity packages
in the UK over the last 30 years than
in earlier periods.
In those more recent fiscal squeezes, year - to - year cuts in public spending have been notably less deep than those imposed after both world wars or the «Geddes Axe» cuts initiated by the Conservative - Liberal coalition of the early 1920
In those more recent
fiscal squeezes, year - to - year cuts
in public spending have been notably less deep than those imposed after both world wars or the «Geddes Axe» cuts initiated by the Conservative - Liberal coalition of the early 1920
in public spending have been notably less deep than those imposed after both world wars or the «Geddes Axe» cuts initiated by the Conservative - Liberal coalition of the early 1920s.
«Hard»
fiscal squeezes (coloured grey) are defined as increases
in tax revenue or falls
in public spending both
in absolute (constant price) terms and relative to GDP (above a defined threshold); «soft»
squeezes (light yellow) are revenue rises or spending falls
in only one of those ways.
And over that more recent period (again
in contrast to earlier episodes) there were no other forms of austerity imposed alongside
fiscal squeeze,
in the form of general wage caps, exchange controls or tight money policies.
Christopher Hood and Rozana Himaz's forthcoming book, A Century of
Fiscal Squeeze Politics, will be published by Oxford University Press
in the summer of 2017.
If the hundred - year pattern shown
in our graphs is any guide to the future, austerity and
fiscal squeeze is likely to reappear
in the UK before too long.
Another long - term pattern
in the historical evolution of
fiscal squeezes is that an episode of hard revenue
squeeze in order to fund extra public spending has not been experienced
in the UK since the mid-1970s.
Based on his experience at the IMF, he commented on the remarkable depth of some of the
fiscal squeeze cases discussed
in the conference, given the political difficulty of cutting expenditure by more than 1 per cent of GDP per year.
So the table demonstrates that,
in historical perspective, Osborne's strategy implemented on top of the cutbacks already made by the current coalition government would be unusual but not unprecedented
in the length of the
fiscal squeeze it would imply (seven years).
For example, the
fiscal squeeze that began with the «Geddes Axe» under the UK's last Liberal - Conservative coalition
in 1921 - 2 (and implemented
in the following three years under three different governments) was also based on spending cuts alone, and went far deeper even than the plans announced by George Osborne.
In spite of how much impassioned talk there has been of austerity on both sides of the party - political divide, the table also suggests that the UK coalition government's overall cutbacks to date have been modest in comparison with the seven earlier episodes of fiscal squeeze show
In spite of how much impassioned talk there has been of austerity on both sides of the party - political divide, the table also suggests that the UK coalition government's overall cutbacks to date have been modest
in comparison with the seven earlier episodes of fiscal squeeze show
in comparison with the seven earlier episodes of
fiscal squeeze shown.
If the future of
fiscal squeeze follows the pattern of the past, we can expect future
squeezes to continue to bite harder on the spending than on the revenue element, to be orchestrated and planned within the central administrative apparatus rather than by outside commissions, and for the pain to be spread over longer periods with lower annual falls, rather than
in sudden steep cuts.
So what accounts for the apparent disappearance of the hard revenue
squeeze from the recent set of
fiscal squeezes, and is it a disappearance that is likely to continue or to be reversed
in the future?
Is that another approach to
fiscal squeeze that is gone for good, or might it be expected to recur
in some circumstances?
«Cuomo's property tax cap will be a central part of his economic plan because he knows we can not get New York's
fiscal house
in order without holding the line on the spending and tax hikes that
squeeze New York families and stifle economic growth.»
The amendment, which would take effect
in the 2020
fiscal year, will
squeeze Cuomo's
fiscal house.
The governor had to
squeeze his visits into the broader drama of the negotiations over the «
fiscal cliff,» a moniker that refers to the expiration of Bush tax cuts and $ 1.2 billion
in spending cuts if Congress doesn't act to reduce the deficit.
During the Chicago teachers» strike I observed that the system faced a
fiscal squeeze thanks to a coming sharp rise
in annual pension contributions.
I would like to
squeeze in more, but
fiscal responsibility means that I have to say no.