Not exact matches
By drawing on the World Bank's projections
of socioeconomic development over the
next quarter
century, researchers at the World Health Organization set out to
forecast global trends in death and disease.
While we have long range climate predictions that show a decline
of snowpack by the end
of the
century and short - range rain and snow
forecasts, until now there has been little information on what to expect in the
next two months to two years.
Develop models and probabilistic
forecasting tools to quantify uncertainties in the atmospheric drivers, surface characteristics, and soil properties that control the timing and extent
of permafrost thaw in the
next few decades and
centuries.
The Polar Bearers used this information: The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (Hassol 2004: Chapter 6, Fig. 6.8, copied below) shows that 3
of the 5 models used to
forecast the
next century's September sea ice predicted that routine levels
of 3.0 — 5.0 mkm2 would not happen until 2040 - 2070.
Just because great climate flips can happen in response to global warming doesn't mean that they are the most probable outcome
of our current situation, what one might «
forecast» (that's one
of the reasons why I've been careful not to «predict» a cooling in the
next century).
-- IPCC has been clear in its wording — no «coffee pauses» were postulated, but a clear warming
of 0.2 C per decade was projected by the models for «he
next two decades» in AR4 (and a warming
of 0.15 C to 0.3 C per decade in the previous TAR)-- In AR4 Ch.10, Figure 10.4 and Table 10.5, IPCC show us how the projected warming
of the early decades ties into the longer - term
forecast for the entire
century, IOW the warming
of the early decades is an integral part
of the «entire postulated journey»..
When the IPCC gets to a
forecast of 3 - 5C warming over the
next century (in which CO2 concentrations are expected to roughly double), it is in two parts.
Although real concerns exist about coral mining and the big «Asian Brown Cloud» due to particulates from biomass burning and inefficient industrial processes, Hansen would like to stoke alarm due to global warming, irrespective
of the evidence: «An INQUA research in 2003 found that actual sea levels in the Maldives had dropped in the 1970s and
forecasts little change in the
next century.»
By comparing the global warming projection for the
next century to natural climate changes
of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon
of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths
of the long - term climate
forecast.