Sentences with phrase «from paleo»

In response, the first category attempts to provide evidence to support the above - stated AGW premise, whether from recent climate change or from paleo - climate studies.

Being able to detect that from the paleo record is remarkable and commendable.

It appears from paleo - science that there is more to it than that, the clouds that they generate as a control mechanism on the earth's temperature, this is yet another feedback mechanism for survival of all life on the planet and has been working for aeons of time, right back to the earliest life here... the planet was made more hospitable to life by life itself, geo - engineering on grand scale by the tiniest of plants in the sea... which outstrips the cleverest of plans by humans to geo - engineer and more relevantly does no harm to the planet...

This is a well - known challenge in estimating ESS from paleo data, and this method doesn't avoid it.

One of the things I've wondered about is how can anyone derive ECS from paleo records.

We have no direct observations of equilibrium climate sensitivity so we have to rely on some form of theory or indirect observations from paleo, at least in part.

One of the reasons many estimates from paleo data overestimate the global sensitivity is because the sensitivity at the poles is much larger than that at the equator.

Re: freddy (# 213), Estimating climate sensitivity from paleo - data.

it can hardly be low and there is compelling evidence from the paleo record that it's probably high.

So the error bars from paleo have to be much bigger.

Monty why do you state that below 2C is ridiculous, and more importantly, how do you conclude this from the paleo record?

However Kiehl (2011, Science) finds that sensitivities could be up to 7 or 8 C per doubling from paleo evidence of 35 million years ago when the CO2 levels were last near 1000 ppm (which we would approach by 2100 with business - as - usual scenarios).

As written, I do not think the consensus can back away from paleo - work and maintain their claim of confidence.

Image credit: Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, «Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD», Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007 / s00382 -008-0507-2, 06 January 2009

I believe that the Earth's climate has moved through the last 50 million years within remarkably stable bounds and that Alex's hypothesis is a good match with current observations and even back many hundreds of thousand years from paleo reconstructions.

I was saying that the term «observations» doesn't apply to studies deriving climate sensitivity from paleo data.

It is estimated from Paleo studies of LGM that climate sensitivity is around 3C.

More substantial changes would be along the lines of «Exploring potential impacts of a 2C world using insights from paleo climate records, modern observations and climate modelling» or «Exploring the potential for tipping points in the climate system before 2C».

Facts, being pesky things, have shown that nothing can account for the change in our climate — from paleo records, to ice records, to dendro records, and to heliological studies — and the only thing left, as Sherlock would say, however improbable, is the answer.

The point ‐ wise information will correspond to the locations and temporal resolution of all available proxy records from paleo sea level studies (Kopp et al. 2016) and random noise will be added to each mimicking the limitations of actual proxy records.

And that's consistent with generally higher CS value deduced from paleo record rather than from direct observations.

These real - world events can be constructed not only from the historical record, but, for example, from the paleo - record and by sequencing different historical time periods together (e.g, the driest 10 years in the historical record, etc).

«A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea - level rise» «Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections» «Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st - century sea - level rise» «Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea level rise» «Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment» «Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100AD» «Global sea level linked to global temperature» «Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100»

In any case, most evidence we tease from paleo - inferences indicates that temperatures fluctuated between a tenth or twentieth as fast, in preceding centuries, as they do in that first Carbon Century, once fossil fed fire got roaring, big - time..

Back in the MWP a solar increase could cause that couple of tenths of a degree of warming that they infer from paleo records, as it could early in the 20th century too when the sun strengthened, but that didn't last till today.

If climate sensitivity is a variable and not a constant what can we really learn from paleo data other than what the climate sensitivity was, on average, over an extended period of time?

Thanks John, for the summary of this very interesting, I would say a breakthrough article: we are gathering more and more evidence from paleo to our understanding of climate change.

Manny, there is a HUGE AMOUNT OF EVIDENCE from paleo proxies that deep ocean warming of the magnitude and rate we are seeing is VERY BAD.

Remember that sensitivity is not defined from the models, but from the paleo - climate observations, and so you would need some radical departure from expected behaviour to challenge that.

I certainly don't think we'll melt all of Antarctica or even Greenland, but we know from the paleo record very significant melting and sea level rise are possible once the warming epoch gets under way.

Stefan linked to Ray Bradley's fine book Paleoclimatology 3rd Ed, which painstakingly describes the challenges and techniques for extracting signal from paleo noise.

> many other nasty things will have happened judging from the paleo record as well as the models > before a methane burp becomes an issue.

... we were quite critical of their basic conclusion — that climate sensitivities significantly higher than the standard range (1.5 — 4.5 ºC) were plausible — because there is significant other data, predominantly from paleo - climate, that pretty much rule those high numbers out...

Given the large and growing (my opinion) uncertainty of the aerosol forcing, how can we make meaningful statements about the climate sensitivity from paleo - experiments?

This is solved because S (from the paleo prior) depends on paleo temperature estimates.

Earlier periods, say 1850 going back to the 1500s or so, have reasonable coverage from paleo - proxy data, and only have solar and volcanic forcing.

In particular, the sensitivity of the Laurentide ice sheet to warming (which you can estimate from paleo) is not likely to be the same as for Greenland.

While there was a lot of interesting science in this paper (the new methodology, the range of results etc.) which fully justified its appearance in Nature, we were quite critical of their basic conclusion — that climate sensitivities significantly higher than the standard range (1.5 — 4.5 ºC) were plausible — because there is significant other data, predominantly from paleo - climate, that pretty much rule those high numbers out (as we discussed again recently).

I am still a strong advocate for the usefulness of climate modelling, and models are consistent with inferences from paleo.

Also in 12 you say» and models are consistent with inferences from paleo» could you elaborate, on face value it seems incorrect, I must be missing something.

Stefan, you mentioned Friedrich et al. (2016) for a confirming of climate sensivity from paleo - data.

[Response: Given your extensive reading of the blog, you surely can't be unaware that I have consistently stated that the best constraints on sensitivity come from the paleo record - and most importantly the last glacial period.

The «slow feedback» sensitivity is likely to be higher (since carbon cycle, methane and ice sheet feedbacks are very likely positive), however, estimating that from paleo is tricky since we are moving into a new regime which hasn't ever happened before.

We have discussed climate sensitivity frequently in previous posts and we have often referred to the constraints on its range that can be derived from paleo - climates, particularly the last glacial maximum (LGM).

[Response: Charney sensitivity from paleo is around 3ºC, models are in the same range (the latest GISS model for instance is around 2.5 ºC).

But with the dressing from The Paleo Foodie Cookbook, it tasted amazing.

My husband is trying to eat healthier so we cooked a delicious kale salad with steak from the Paleo Sunbasket I ordered for the week.

Believe it or not I still had some left over from the Paleo Fig Newton Bites from the other day.

While there's some controversy regarding the consumption of legumes and cereal grains in the paleolithic, it's generally accepted that these foods were not a substantial part of the diet of our prehistoric ancestors, and in addition to dairy products, potatoes, refined salt, refined sugar, and processed oils, grains and legumes are therefore excluded from the paleo diet.

From a Paleo and whole foods perspective, we should be consuming more of the whole olives themselves.