GCM sensitivity studies (Boucher and Anderson, 1995) and column calculations (Nemesure et al., 1995) show that the radiative forcing is a strong function of relative humidity but relatively insensitive to chemical composition.
Not exact matches
The Hansen et al
study (2004) on target atmospheric CO2 and climate
sensitivity is quite clear on this topic: equilibrium responses would double the
GCM - based estimates, with very little to be said about transient effects.
My main criticism of their
study is that they have calculated effective climate
sensitivity (their ICS) on a basis which is wrong for ICS in
GCMs; their basis is also inconsistent with observationally - based estimates of ICS.
My main criticism of their
study is that they have calculated effective climate
sensitivity (their ICS) on a basis which is wrong for ICS in
GCMs; their basis is also inconsistent with observationally - based estimates of ICS.
It featured the incorrect Spencer and Christie analysis, a comparison with a
GCM simulation done with steady 1 % CO2 increase and no aerosol forcint (meant as a
sensitivity study, not a forecast!)
Since none of the four models considered by the Mediterranean
study consistently out - performed the others in simulating present - day climate, the researchers combined their results to produce a single composite scenario for each climate variable.2 To prevent the
GCM with the greatest
sensitivity from dominating the scenarios, they first had to standardise the model results.
The projection that was actually closest to the temps was Scenario C though (that was the
sensitivity study with a drastic reduction of C02 emissions), so we accomplished by doing nothing what Hansen's 1988
GCM claimed we'd accomplish by huge reductions of CO2 emissions...
Contrary to Schlesinger's result, the majority of state - of - the - art four - dimensional «general circulation models» (
GCMs)- the kind used in the Trenberth and Fasullo
study - estimate the climate
sensitivity is closer to 3 degrees C.
The central conclusion of this
study is that to disregard the low values of effective climate
sensitivity (≈ 1 °C) given by observations on the grounds that they do not agree with the larger values of equilibrium, or effective, climate
sensitivity given by
GCMs, while the
GCMs themselves do not properly represent the observed value of the tropical radiative response coefficient, is a standpoint that needs to be reconsidered.
Grenfell, J.L., D.T. Shindell, and V. Grewe, 2003:
Sensitivity studies of oxidative changes in the troposphere in 2100 using the GISS
GCM.