Not exact matches
Moderate interest rates were associated with a whole range of subsequent returns over the following decade, and we know that those outcomes were 90 % correlated with the
level of valuations
at the beginning of those periods (on reliable measures such as market cap /
GDP, price / revenue, Tobin's Q, the margin - adjusted Shiller P / E, and others we've
presented over time - see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle).
Part of this decline in
GDP, stemming from the oil production shortfall, will probably be made back sometime in the third quarter, but the net effect on the
level of
GDP over time will depend on the pace of rebuilding, which
at present is difficult to foresee.
The
level of yields — around 4 1/4 per cent
at present — looks low not only on historical comparisons but also relative to normal benchmarks such as the growth rate of nominal
GDP, which in the US is currently around 6 per cent (Graph 16).