Sentences with phrase «gdp growth estimate»

All be damned if the BEA posted a GDP growth estimate actually close to what it likely was — as opposed to overestimating it.

Goldman Sachs cut its second - quarter GDP growth estimate by three tenths of a percentage point to 1.0 percent.

0.2 pp off our 2017 global GDP growth estimate to 3.4 % still means acceleration next year.

We started the year with 4 % GDP growth estimates as far as the eye could see (not from me, but Wall St did).

The 2016 GDP growth estimates were already cut to 1.3 %, from 1.7 % forecasted earlier.

At the same time, the Fed lowered its GDP growth estimates for the next three years, by 30 to 70 basis points, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Not exact matches

The IIF estimates non-hydrocarbon real GDP growth at 2.7 percent in 2018 and 2019, compared to 1 percent last year, mainly driven by fiscal stimulus.

Budget 2016 estimates for nominal GDP growth appear reasonable, with 2016 NGDP growth pegged at 2.4 per cent (1.4 per cent real GDP growth plus 1.0 per cent GDP inflation).

The largest overestimate of real GDP growth occurred for Q3: 2007, where the January 2008 estimate was 219 basis points above the current estimate.

In each of the first three quarters of 2007, the estimates of real GDP growth available to the Fed in January 2008 were higher than the estimates available currently.

The blue bars represent real GDP growth for these same 2007 four quarters as estimated in September 2013.

Mind you, that January 2008 estimate of Q3: 2007 real GDP growth was already the third revision of the October 2007 first guess by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of Q3: 2007 real GDP growth.

Given the recent economic news, estimates of 1.2 % for GDP growth, -0.2 % for GDP inflation, and 0.55 % for the 3 - month T - Bill rate are more appropriate.

Simply enter in your estimates for real GDP growth, GDP inflation, the 10 - year bond rate and your desired contingency reserve in the yellow cells, and the sheet will estimate the projected surplus or deficit for fiscal years 2015 - 16 through 2019 - 20.

The GDP release also delivered an unwelcome surprise on government spending: budget trimming by federal agencies, especially the defence department, shaved an estimated eight percentage points off growth.

GDP was so strong to start the year that the Bank of Canada likely will have to raise its growth estimates for the first quarter from the current 1 % to as much as 3 %.

The IMF and European Commission both estimate that Italy's debt - to - GDP ratio will begin to fall in 2016, but other analysts argue that these estimates are based on overly optimistic growth projections.

Still, Wall Street has continued to lower its estimates for growth this year and next, with GDP now expected to be 1.95 percent for 2016, 19 basis points lower than in March and below 2 percent for the first time since the question was first asked a year ago.

Unemployment has continued its steady decline, hitting 4.1 percent in October, and GDP growth has picked up, gaining 3.0 percent in the third quarter, according to «advance» estimates released in October.

However, the decline in GDP growth was much larger at 4pp (to -1.1 % y / y from 3.1 % prior to the increase in the VAT), implying significant downside risk to our estimates.»

Goldman Sachs estimated that GDP growth would increase 0.3 percentage points above their baseline in 2018 and 2019.

Page 287 of the 2014 Budget has an estimate that a 1 - percentage point decrease in GDP growth would reduce «the budgetary balance by $ 3.7 billion in the first year, $ 4.5 billion in the second year and $ 6.0 billion by the fifth year.»

Wednesday's downward revision pushes the Atlanta Fed's estimate for first - quarter GDP growth well below the 3 % target that President Donald Trump has touted for his administration.

As long as low domestic consumption (currently in the range of 40 - 50 % of GDP, based on varying estimates) continues to constrain demand, Chinese growth is unlikely to pick up speed anytime soon.

In a paper co-authored with colleagues at Stanford and the University of Chicago, Bloom estimates an increase in policy uncertainty between 2006 and 2011 might have shaved up to 2.3 percentage points off GDP growth.

Uncertainty shock = lower US GDP estimates; markets will price in EU fragmentation; Fed likely to pass in Dec; ultimate growth impact of Trump will depend on whether his protectionism or Keynesianism triumphs; either way Trump will boost inflation / stagflation expectations as electorates say end wage deflation via immigration controls, trade protectionism, fiscal spending.

Bartsch now forecasts 2017 GDP growth of 1.9 % for the eurozone, a 10 - basis - point increase from Morgan Stanley's previous estimate.

We expect the tax bill to offer moderate economic stimulus — various estimates suggest it could add 0.3 to 0.4 points to real GDP growth annually — primarily through increased corporate investment in response to the higher after - tax return on investment resulting from the lower 21 % corporate tax rate.

We had a period like that a year or two ago, when GDP growth was estimated to be quite low but other indicators, like business survey results and employment growth, were pointing to stronger outcomes.

Based on estimates of labor force and productivity growth at the time, if you asked a standard - issue macroeconomist back then where real GDP would be today, this is the line she would have showed you.

The increase in hiring by small businesses is an encouraging sign for the economy amid estimates that the 16 - day government shutdown could have sliced off as much as 0.6 percentage point from fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

We estimate that the oil price shock, on its own, took about 1 1/4 percentage points off GDP growth in the first half of the year.

World GDP growth in 2005 is estimated to have been above average, and most observers expect this to continue in 2006.

IMF estimates of annual growth rate of world real GDP (in red, right scale) and year - over-year percent change in commodity prices as measured by the quarterly average CRB / BLS raw industrials price index (in green, left scale).

Miller: There is a significant gap between China's positive outlook for GDP and our estimated numbers for corporate revenue growth and cash flow.

While there are some signs of recognition such as the Fed's reduction in its estimated neutral rate from 4.5 percent to 3.0 percent during the last 2 years, the IMF's explicit use of the term secular stagnation in its World Economic Outlook, ECB president Mario Draghi's call for global coordination and greater use of fiscal policy, and Japan's indicated interest in fiscal - monetary cooperation, policymakers still have not made sufficiently radical adjustments in their world view to reflect this new reality of a world where generating adequate nominal GDP growth is likely to be the primary macroeconomic policy challenge for the next decade.

Meantime, the current estimates for first - quarter GDP growth in the US point to a continuation of the moderate expansion that prevailed in the final three months of 2017.

My best guess is that one should start with reported GDP growth and subtract from it your best estimate of the amount of debt in each period that should be written down to zero.

The U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis today released its first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the third quarter of 2013.

I based my growth expectations on what I think were conservative estimates of consumption growth and the growth in productive investment (with which the reported data is currently consistent, although do not prove my assumptions one way or the other), but I always pointed out that as long as credit growth accelerated, the growth in non-productive investment would remain high, in which case reported GDP would also remain high for much longer.

It is not a perfect analogy but — except, of course, for the part in which analyses that use the number of bookshops as a proxy for literacy are widely ridiculed — it is nonetheless similar to what happens when the health of the Chinese economy is measured by the reported GDP data, or when second - order measures, such as the dependence of Chinese growth on debt, is estimated by looking at credit growth in relation to GDP growth.

Morgan Stanley China economist Robin Xing estimates a similar impact on real GDP growth for China.

Morgan Stanley U.S. chief economist Ellen Zentner estimates that a 20 % broad - based tariff increase could, after four quarters, result in a 1 percentage point drag on real U.S. GDP growth.

For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an «advance» (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting.

For the Canadian economy, estimates of the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) from Statistics Canada for the fourth quarter of 2016 came in somewhat stronger than we had anticipated in our January Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In fact, 2015 was the fourth straight year in which global GDP growth, estimated at 3.1 %, fell short of the 30 - year annual average of 3.6 %.

Advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis report on Friday showed that the U.S. economy slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter, rendering the annual GDP growth...

The BEA's first guess at Q4 real GDP growth was +0.7 % — matching the Atlanta Fed's realtime estimate.

It is possible that measured GDP growth is somewhat overstated due to difficulties in estimating the GDP deflator, which is falling considerably more quickly than other price measures; nominal GDP has grown by a much more modest 0.8 per cent over the year, although this is still an improvement on recent history.

GDP was estimated to have grown by 0.3 per cent in the September quarter, with growth over the year slowing to 3 per cent (Graph 21).