Clarida may have said little about nominal
GDP targeting to date — but with his nomination, the Fed may be getting a nominal GDP target advocate for the future.
In his article «The Age of Secular Stagnation,» Larry Summers argued that excess of saving over investment is acting as a drag on demand to weigh on growth and inflation, and current monetary stimulus should be expanded to accelerate investments and pull demand forward, such as raising the inflation target or to conduct nominal
GDP targeting.
In that same interview, he seems to be reaching to square these contradictions, by suggesting that the Fed's current model — targeting 2 % inflation, a Fed funds rate of ~ 3 %, and an unemployment rate of ~ 5 % — is not reliable and that they should maybe move to a different targeting regime, like price - level or nominal
GDP targeting.
In addition, nominal
GDP targeting has a built - in protection against debt deflation (Koenig 2013, Sheedy 2014).
«Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal
GDP Targeting.»
While price level or nominal
GDP targeting by monetary authorities are options, fiscal and other policies must also take on some of the burden to help sustain economic growth and stability.
Finally, in a nominal
GDP targeting regime, a decline in r - star caused by slower trend growth automatically leads to a higher rate of trend inflation, providing a larger buffer to respond to economic downturns.
Close observers of North American politics will hear an echo of the president of the United States in O'Leary's
GDP targeting.
They understand that they are in a no - win situation if they pick a hard
GDP target for 2014.
Our Government has already set an ambitious debt - to -
GDP target of 25 per cent by 2021.
The deficit target for the EURO countries is 3 per cent of GDP and the debt - to -
GDP target is 60 per cent of GDP.
GDP targets are part of domestic signaling about the expected pain of adjustment.
For this reason, talk of nominal
GDP targets, or commitments to raise the inflation target, are a distraction.
In the EURO area, the «acceptable» deficit target is 3 % of GDP and the «acceptable» debt to
GDP target is 60 % of GDP.
The Harper government had committed to a debt /
GDP target of 25 %.
The current market view is one of apprehension, given the country's continued de-capacity and deleveraging efforts, and the new emphasis on achieving high - quality growth rather than hitting
GDP targets.
He told a parliamentary conference on Tuesday that the government must inject an extra 1 billion euros into research each year for 5 years, or a total of 15 billion euros, if it is to achieve the 3 % of
GDP target.
But on the other hand, setting a temperature limit to save the polar bear may not allow for a developing country to hit
its GDP target.
Not exact matches
If you add up the
GDP figures issued by the provinces, the sum is 10 % higher than the figure ultimately issued by the national government, which in itself is tweaked to hit politicized
targets.
The Spanish government is
targeting a total budget deficit equal to 6.3 percent of
GDP this year, revising downward its deficit outlook to 2.8 percent in 2013.
Karoblis said Trump had been right to demand that European allies increase their defense spending towards the agreed
target of two percent of their
GDP.
The latest
GDP figures prove that the policies of the last six years are
targeting the wrong culprits.
Wednesday's downward revision pushes the Atlanta Fed's estimate for first - quarter
GDP growth well below the 3 %
target that President Donald Trump has touted for his administration.
Both countries find themselves far from the 60 % debt - to -
GDP ratio
target set by the European Commission.
Bloomberg News observed that Finance's economic projections imply
GDP will grow 40 % by 2025, suggesting that Trudeau's export
target is something other than ambitious.
Longer term, it would mean missing the stated 2021
target of reducing the national debt - to -
GDP to 25 per cent by only a single percentage point.
China has lowered its official
GDP growth
target to 6.5 % for 2016, and actual growth is likely to be lower than that.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets» chief economist Doug Porter noted Facebook's estimate of its economic impact in Canada — $ 5 billion and 82,000 new jobs — would mean it contributes between 0.2 and 0.3 per cent of
GDP, which is more than retailer
Target ever accounted for.
The Harper government has set a «
target of stabilizing» the debt - to -
GDP ratio at 25 per cent by 2021 - 22.
The inflation
target was achieved, the average rate of unemployment was low and the variability of both real
GDP and unemployment were if anything slightly lower than in the past.
A
target for nominal
GDP (or the sum of all money earned in an economy each year, before accounting for inflation) is less radical than it sounds.
Should monetary policy drop its inflation
target and instead do whatever it takes to maintain a stable growth path for nominal
GDP, no matter what that requires it do, no matter what fiscal policy is?
Under the Canada Economic Action Plan the deficit will be eliminated by 2015 - 16; although total net public debt will have increased by $ 150 billion, the debt ratio will have declined to 33.0 per cent in 2015 - 16 and reach the government's
target of 25 percent by 2019 - 20; program spending will fall to below 13 percent of
GDP and will continue to fall thereafter; public sector jobs have been eliminated; and income and corporate taxes have been cut.
One of the ways Beijing seems to be reducing the pain of more expensive borrowing (relative to nominal
GDP growth) is to loosen credit in a
targeted way.
For example, the Bank of Japan is currently
targeting the purchase of more than $ 700 billion of Japanese government bonds per year, or approximately 15 % of the country's gross domestic product (
GDP).
Though the German government is notionally committed to the alliance's 2 - percent defense - spending
target, it only spent 1.2 percent of its
GDP on defense last year — an amount her coalition partners, the Social Democrats, and more than half the German public oppose increasing.
In proposing balanced budget legislation, the Harper Government has indicated that the debt - to -
GDP ratio will continue to decline below its
target of 25 per cent of
GDP.
The federal government continues to be on track to achieve its
target debt - to -
GDP ratio of 25 per cent by 2021.
... China has
targets of
GDP growth around 7.5 percent and a consumer price index (CPI) increase of about 3.5 percent in 2014, with 10 million more urban jobs to keep the urban unemployment rate at a maximum of 4.6 percent.
Although the fall in oil prices will negatively impact the debt - to -
GDP in the short term, the
target of 25 per cent by 2021 - 22 appears achievable.
China has managed to meet the
GDP growth
target of 6.7 percent, the level of economic activity presumably needed to keep unemployment from rising, only by increasing total debt by a frightening amount equal to a 40 — 45 percentage points of
GDP.
The original deficit
target in the Liberals 1993 election campaign was also 3 % of
GDP.
But according to a recent C.D. Howe study, the federal government could run a permanent structural deficit of 1 % of
GDP ($ 20 billion) and still maintain a stable debt ratio of 25 %, which happens to be the Conservative government's
target for 2022.
More importantly, what does this new
target mean and how important is reducing the federal debt - to
GDP ratio to 25 per cent?
The federal government is on track to achieve its
target debt - to -
GDP ratio of 25 per cent by 2021, evidenced by projected surplus budgets in the very short term.
And third, assume that China continues to have as much debt capacity as needed in the current period to fund the amount of activity required to meet the
GDP growth
target.
If the authorities are willing to engage in loss - making activities to achieve the
GDP growth
target, there are two relevant characteristics of an economy like China's that change the nature of the
GDP measure: first, economic activity is much less affected by hard - budget constraints than it is in most other economies; and second, bad debt is much less likely to be written down.
This is why countries like China, whose economies are not subject to these two constraints, are able to achieve
GDP growth
targets that for many years exceed the underlying growth of the economy.
Current government forecasts show government debt falling to about 25 per cent of
GDP (the government's
target) by 2019 - 20.
The question is whether officials will trust the gauge enough to scrap
GDP growth
targets — and if others trust it in a downturn.