It is not, in principle, impossible for coupled ocean - atmosphere climate to be chaotic, but all evidence so far points to the likelihood that the strength of the response to
GHG radiative forcing changes overwhelms the effect of any chaos there may be in the system.
Not exact matches
Could the climate
forcing itself, such as increasing
GHGs, affect parameterizations independently of the larger scale climate
changes (for example, by
changing thermal damping of various kinds of waves, or by
changing the differences of
radiative effects between different amounts and kinds of clouds)?
With climate
change of course, we have no such confidence, because of the enormous and rapid increase in
GHGs, whose physical basis as a
radiative forcing agent is well understand, and quantified.
In an atmosphere open to the sky as opposed to a container in a laboratory a density
change is
forced by the absorption of
radiative energy by the
GHG molecules.
The C - ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator is based on the biogeophysical and integrated assessment literature and includes representations of the carbon cycle, other
GHGs,
radiative forcing, global mean surface temperature, and sea level
change.
Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long - term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (
GHGs), short - lived species, and land - use / land - cover
change leading to a stabilisation of
radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm − 2) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years.
IPCC AR4 WG1 tells us that the all anthropogenic
forcing components except CO2 (aerosols, other
GHGs, land use
changes, other
changes in surface albedo, etc.) have essentially cancelled one another out, so we can use the estimated
radiative forcing for CO2 (1.66 W / m ^ 2) to equate with total net anthropogenic
forcing (1.6 W / m ^ 2).
Methane is an important part of the anthropogenic
radiative forcing Methane emissions have a direct
GHG effect, and they effect atmospheric chemistry and stratospheric water vapour which have additional impacts natural feedbacks involving methane likely to be important in future — via wetland response to temperature / rain
change, atmospheric chemistry and, yes, arctic sources There are large stores of carbon in the Arctic, some stored as hydrates, some potentially convertible to CH4 by anaerobic resporation [from wikianswers: Without oxygen.
Most of the chapter is about
radiative forcing from
changes in human
GHG concentrations, as could be expected.
Future assessments of possible climate
change need to account for these different spatial and temporal dynamics of
GHG and SO2 emissions, and they need to cover the whole range of
radiative forcing associated with the scenarios.
Stabilisation scenarios are an important subset of inverse mitigation scenarios, describing futures in which emissions reductions are undertaken so that
GHG concentrations,
radiative forcing, or global average temperature
change do not exceed a prescribed limit.
Mitigation scenarios (also known as climate intervention or climate policy scenarios) are defined in the TAR (Morita et al., 2001), as scenarios that «(1) include explicit policies and / or measures, the primary goal of which is to reduce
GHG emissions (e.g., carbon taxes) and / or (2) mention no climate policies and / or measures, but assume temporal
changes in
GHG emission sources or drivers required to achieve particular climate targets (e.g.,
GHG emission levels,
GHG concentration levels,
radiative forcing levels, temperature increase or sea level rise limits).»