The key issue of interest here (at least on the threads re verification of NASA
GISS climate model simulations) is predictive verification.
Although no longer an up - to - date study, the original forcings used in the first transient
GISS climate model simulations (Hansen et al., 1988) are occasionally of historical interest.
But as you'll discover, globally,
the GISS climate model simulations of sea surface temperatures are too warm.
Not exact matches
I agree that a priori we can't assume that the high end
simulations will fall by the wayside once more validation is done, but that is my hunch (based on
model valdiation that we perform at
GISS and my own experience with paleo -
climate modelling).
This Nature
Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS - E2 - R climate model, that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were bias
Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on
simulations by the
GISS - E2 - R
climate model, that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were bias
climate model, that estimates of the transient
climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were bias
climate response (TCR) and equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were bias
climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were biased low.
Image to right: This is a
GISS Model simulation of the 8,200 year
climate response to freshwater entering into the Hudson Bay.
FORTRAN source code and documentation for the 1980s version of the
GISS global
climate model, used in the original NASA
GISS global warming
simulations described in Hansen et al. (1988).
Marvel et al. reached this conclusion from analysing the response of the
GISS - E2 - R
climate model in
simulations over the historical period (1850 — 2005) when driven by six individual forcings, and also by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical»
simulation.
Sun, S., and R. Bleck, 2006: Multi-century
simulations with the coupled
GISS - HYCOM
climate model: Control experiments.
A full description of the ModelE version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (
GISS) Atmospheric General Circulation
Model (GCM) and results are presented for present - day
climate simulations (c. 1979).
Marvel et al could withdraw their paper and submit a new one, using more satisfactory methodology and providing more detail, after performing a set of
simulations that showed how the
GISS model responded to each type of forcing as the
climate state evolved during the historical period.
FORTRAN source and documentation for the 1980s version of the
GISS global
climate model, used in the original NASA
GISS global warming
simulations described in Hansen et al. 1988.