Ron, if the new BEST results agree with GISS then there probably is no recent flatline in BEST to hide, as
GISS shows warming throughout the period.
And since HadCrut shows the same sorts of variation
GISS shows, you should believe the same for it as you believe for GISS in regard ti this issue.
GISS shows about.2 * C of warming over the last 17 years.
That's probably the reason
GISS shows more warming over the last decade than HadCRU; the arctic region seems to be the fastest - warming part of the planet.
This article compares GISS Jan - July 2010 (which
GISS shows as the hottest on record) vs Jan - July 1998 (which UAH, RSS and HadCrut show as the hottest on record.)
GISS shows Jan - July as the hottest on record.
GISS shows 2010 far above 2005.
Finland-gate (Climate Audit) NASA
GISS shows record high temps for Finland in March 2010 when it was actually colder than -LSB-...]
Finland-gate NASA
GISS shows record high temps for Finland in March 2010 when it was actually colder than -LSB-...]
In attempting to capture arctic temperatures, he relies on interpolation that does not make much sense when we are talking about sparse real data... and the fact that
GISS shows much stronger warming in the arctic then the other data - sets (which I might add have more stations in the arctic) goes to show that there is this taking place.
The figure at the left from
GISS shows that the cooling was a northern hemisphere thing.
The fact that
GISS shows more warming since 1990 than any other dataset indicates this possibility (and the others are not pure as driven snow here either).
Science Corrupted: It's «the hottest year on record», as long as you don't take its temperature — Activist James Hansen's claims based on «pure conjecture» — Hansen's Climate Con: «The parts of the world which
GISS shows to be heating up the most are so short of weather stations that only 25 per cent of the figures are based on actual temperature readings»
All four plotted data sets, yes even
GISS shows a decline since 2002.
Why is the GISS data so out of phase with UAH, RSS, even HADCRUT all showing temps falling in Q4 2010 while
GISS shows a sharp rise?
Nasa
giss shows temperatures rising to about 1945 then dropping after that.
[Response: Both CRU and
GISS show that your theory of an underlying trend of 0.6 C / century is nonsense — just as the BEST data does.
Two graphs from NASA
GISS show the general pattern.
Why would
GISS show higher highs, but almost identical lows?
Nevertheless, this location is the same latitude as St. Louis and one can see from the charts for St. Louis that BEST and
GISS show the same trend
Not exact matches
Below is a figure
showing a similar comparison between HadCRUT 3v and GISTEMP (from NASA /
GISS).
GISS data
shows net cooling over the record period (WTF!).
Figure 2: The data (green) are the average of the NASA
GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also
showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
The data (green) are NASA
GISS monthly global surface temperature anomaly data from January 1970 through December 2014, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 — Oct 1977, Apr 1977 — Dec 1986, Apr 1987 — Oct 1996, Aug 1997 — Dec 2002, Jan 2003 — Jun 2012, and Jul 2012 — Feb 2014 (blue), and also
showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
However, if you try any other sort of least squares regression fit, e.g. polynomial, then the NASA /
GISS data still
shows increasing temperatures, but the other data sets
show that temperatures have stabilized, if not actually peaked.
Recent temperature measurements over the past 165 + years based on satellite, marine and land instruments obtained and analyzed by HadCrut,
GISS, and Berkeley indicate global temperatures have increased by approximately 1 degree C
shown on Figure 7.
No, «the graph
shown by Cox» — easily identifiable as the
GISS record, by the way, at least to those of us familiar with it — is not «inconsistent» with the satellite record.
Victor complains of a so called «lack of scientific understanding», but
shows his own massive lack of understanding when he calls basic statistics arcane, and appears to think the satellites measure the same thing in the same way as surface data like
giss.
If one plots the records from
GISS, HADCru, RSS and UAH;
GISS is the outlier, and three of the four primary global temperature measuring systems
show a decrease over the most recent six years and a downward trend over the past decade; not that this establishes a significant trend yet.
It is amazing how well the Southern Oscillation Index (from NCAR) fits to a temperature record such as
GISS, and only
shows deviations in recent years during the big volcanic disturbances.
By the way,
GISS data does not
show +.72 C. For the globe it is.49 C http://data.
giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ and I am sure it is less for SH.
Below is a figure
showing a similar comparison between HadCRUT 3v and GISTEMP (from NASA /
GISS).
In the upper plot, raw data results are
shown in red, homogenized data results in green, and the official NASA /
GISS «meteorological stations» results (for reference purposes) in dark blue.
The 38 % references whether
GISS 2014 exceeds what an independently constructed index would have measured in 2010, and includes all the variation that such an index would
show in a 2014 vs 2014 comparison.
The figure below
shows these linear trends for the
GISS data for each calendar month, for two data versions provided by
GISS: unadjusted and «homogenised».
An analysis of
GISS global tempertures
shows an increase of the linear rate of warming since 1980 up to 2007 (see red trace on graphic here — usually 2 clicks to download your attachment) which strongly suggests a global slowdown can not have begin before that time.
He claims that this can be corrected for, but he still isn't using the proper null — in M&N they
show the results from the ensemble means (of the
GISS model and the full AR4 model set), but seem to be completely ignorant of the fact that ensemble mean results remove the spatial variations associated with internal variability which should be the exact thing you would use!
His reams of temperature charts from
GISS I assume are presented to
show it hasn't warmed at all at the selected locations I guess?
NASA
GISS has always filled the data gaps by interpolation, albeit with a simpler method, and accordingly the GISTEMP data
show hardly a slowdown of warming.
As Hansen indeed only used rural stations for his global temperature trend outside the USA, I need to change the challenge: find out the station density of rural stations in the
GISS database for the tropics (20N - 20S or 30N - 30S) where in the 1979 - 2005 period the data
show some reliability... Good luck with that!
At Jim Hansen's now famous congressional testimony given in the hot summer of 1988, he
showed GISS model projections of continued global warming assuming further increases in human produced greenhouse gases.
At any rate, the
GISS dataset *
shows 2007 was second - warmest on record.
Whereas on a plot of forcing vs log of relative concentration, Hansen
showed a relationship which was concave upwards, the limited ERF and Fa data you have supplied for
GISS - E2 - R suggest a relationship which is concave downwards.
[Response: I would point out that if you look at the combined ocean and land data for the tropics (available at the
GISS web site), the ocean (still part of the surface after all)
shows significant and widespread warming.
This
shows that for some forcing agents Marvel et al.'s methodology does not correctly quantify forcing in
GISS - E2 - R for recent decades of the Historical simulation, making its related efficacy and sensitivity estimates very doubtful.»
In the meantime you appear to be arguing with me over what the
GISS model
shows for amplification of the MSU - LT trends over land.
If Steve McIntyre and others ultimately
show that the
GISS has fudged their temperature data sets in order to
show more warming than actually occurred (as I believe will happen), then I assume Hansen would agree that he should also go on trial.
NASA
GISS September temperatures out at last
showing a bit of a leap up to equal 10th hottest month on record.
NASA
GISS does not
show Northern Hemisphere temp anomaly, but does so for the Southern Hemisphere: +0.30 C. Global being +0.68 this means that Northern Hemisphere was about +1.1, three months in a row above 1 degree, tri-fecta only repeated twice Jan - Mar 2002 and Feb - Apr 2000.