Not exact matches
Last week Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies,
estimated that the average global
temperature in 2016 could range from about 1.1 °C above preindustrial to only slightly below 1.5 °C, based on
GISS's
temperature record and its definition of pre-industrial (other records and definitions vary).
GISS produces two
estimates — the met station index (which does not cover a lot of the oceans), and a land - ocean index (which uses satellite ocean
temperature changes in addition to the met stations).
The obvious answer (from someone who is indeed receptive to arguments for lower - than - consensus climate sensitivities) is that it was on a par with recent hot years because
temperatures at US latitudes of the globe really weren't as much cooler in the 1930s / 1940s (compared to the present) than
GISS / Hadley's best
estimates (from often sketchy global coverage) suggest.
The difference between the HadCrut and
GISS treatment of this problem is that HadCrut does not use those grid cells to calculate the global
temperature anomaly while
GISS interpolates / extrapolates from the few stations around the artic to infill
temperature estimates for the grid cells where no «real» data is available.
There are 5 best - known global
temperature estimates, surface data from
GISS, HadCRU, and NCDC, and lower - troposphere
estimates from RSS and UAH.
However, the CRU global mean combined land air / sea surface
temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998 annual mean
estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while
GISS indicates a lag of 0.02 C.
GISS, HadCRU, RSS, and UAH represent the four organizations that publish online the global average
temperature estimates.
GISS produces two
estimates — the met station index (which does not cover a lot of the oceans), and a land - ocean index (which uses satellite ocean
temperature changes in addition to the met stations).
I had attempted a similar project at the 3rd conference with my poster «Comparison of Climate Forecasts: Expert Opinions vs. Prediction Markets» in which my abstract proposed the following: «As an experiment, we will ask participants to go on the record with
estimates of probability that the global
temperature anomaly for calendar year 2012 will be equal to or greater than x, where x ranges in increments of 0.05 °C from 0.30 to 1.10 °C (relative to the 1951 - 1980 base period, and published by NASA
GISS).»
I presume that a corresponding error would be carried forward into the final
GISS estimate of US lower 48
temperature and that this widely used
estimate would be incorrect by a corresponding amount.
If they do all over
estimate, this would explain why the
GISS II model overshot the
temperature variations.
WMO - «Because the data with respect to in - situ surface air
temperature across Africa is sparse, a oneyear regional assessment for Africa could not be based on any of the three standard global surface air
temperature data sets from NOAANCDC, NASA -
GISS or HadCRUT4 Instead, the combination of the Global Historical Climatology Network and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (CAMS GHCN) by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory was used to
estimate s
The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA
GISS) is one of the five groups that currently publish global
temperature trend
estimates from weather station records, i.e., they produce one of the curves we showed you at the start of this essay in Figure 1.
Dr Curry, the mean model surface
temperature trend
estimate is ~ 0.20 C / decade compared to Cowtan and Way ~ +0.17 C or
GISS ~ +0.16 C (both attempting improved Arctic representation).
Or, one could say that the
estimated GISS temperatures for 2013 are [+ or — degrees] compared to the
estimated Hadcrut
temperatures for 2013.
Perhaps we should go with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies
GISS Surface
Temperature Analysis11 with it's
estimate of warming almost twice as large?
Summing up: My question for sTeve is: why would you choose the
GISS estimate of
temperatures, which shows parts of the past decade as higher than 1998 and considerable average warming, over the other three monitoring agencies, which show much less or no warming for the decade?
My best
estimate from looking at the history of climate is that; a)
Temperatures have been rising since 1698 - 2 centuries before James Hansen plugged his
Giss figures into the end of a long trend and claimed he was capturing the start of it.
From that link's words, the DMI «green line» IS the best way to consistently compare the daily
estimate of NORTH areas of the arctic — those areas north of 70 latitude to 83 north latitude NASA -
GISS extrapolates «surface» ground - based
temperatures as far as 1200 km from where their land - based measurements were made from 60 - 70 latitude over the ever - greening (and darker) tundra and forests OUT to the open sea where where the arctic sea ice actually is present.
if
GISS gets it this wrong in a modern country with a competent national weather service, why would anyone have confidence in all the
temperatures that are «
estimated or extrapolated» for areas like the artic?
Because the
GISS analysis combines available sea surface
temperature records with meteorological station measurements, we test alternative choices for the ocean data, showing that global
temperature change is sensitive to
estimated temperature change in polar regions where observations are limited.
Three of them are
estimates of surface
temperature, from NASA
GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), HadCRU (Hadley Centre / Climate Research Unit in the U.K.), and NCDC (National Climate Data Center).
«Because the data with respect to in - situ surface air
temperature across Africa is sparse, a oneyear regional assessment for Africa could not be based on any of the three standard global surface air
temperature data sets from NOAANCDC, NASA -
GISS or HadCRUT4 Instead, the combination of the Global Historical Climatology Network and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (CAMS GHCN) by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory was used to
estimate surface air
temperature patterns»
If you compare HadCRUT, NCDC and
GISS over the region where they all
estimate temperatures (roughly 60S to 60N), they come out pretty near the same (there are still differences, but they're smaller).
I feel the same way about calling the global
temperature estimates from the HadCru,
GISS and NOAA surface statistical models «observations.»
The part about not «effecting» ocean
temperature may be in error, too, with regards to the
GISS estimate of global
temperature.
I believe this gives an accurate
estimate of surface
temperature trends which most closely resembles the normal
GISS LOTI.
The
GISS Surface
Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) is an estimate of global surface temperat
Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) is an
estimate of global surface
temperaturetemperature change.
Figure 2 is
GISS's
estimate of
temperatures over the past decade.
It is also worth noting that the CRU record indicates slightly less warming than other global
temperature estimates such as the
GISS record.