But he quotes some of his own prior «work» and casually states
GISS warms their data.
Not exact matches
A question: I have a vague memory of years ago someone «denier / pseudo stats dude» was hassling nasa /
giss for their raw
data of what they used to feed in the avg / mean models for global temps... saying that the adjustments being made was being done to over-state the extent of
warming?
They are published and plotted every month, (Google Global
Warming at a Glance), and overlaid onto the
GISS surface
data on which Anthony Watts (Watts up with That) labours so strenuously.
Totally harmless when you consider that half the
warming since 1880 is arbitrary
data «adjustments» made after the year 2000 (by NASA —
GISS).
I think Rasmus points out that model simulations where the available temp
data is plugged into the models (i.e., the re-analysis) provide support for a
warming Artic and
GISS's interpolation / extrapolation method.
We win nothing of scientific interest if 2014 is the
warmest, we lose credibility if 2014 turns out not to be the hottest either by the additional
data we will add or by comparison with C&W which we consider to be a method more reliable than NOAA or
GISS.
Experiment with the package a bit, and if you are successful in getting it up and running, you will see how amazingly easy it is to replicate the NASA /
GISS global -
warming trends with both raw and adjusted
data.
It's a nice visual demonstration of the robustness of the temperature record — note how quickly the homogenized * and * raw
data warming - trends converge to the official NASA /
GISS warming - trend.
NASA
GISS has always filled the
data gaps by interpolation, albeit with a simpler method, and accordingly the GISTEMP
data show hardly a slowdown of
warming.
Even now global temperatures are very high again — in the
GISS data, with an anomaly of + 0.77 °C November was
warmer than the previous record year of 2010 (+ 0.67 °), and it was the
warmest November on record since 1880.
[Response: I would point out that if you look at the combined ocean and land
data for the tropics (available at the
GISS web site), the ocean (still part of the surface after all) shows significant and widespread
warming.
If Steve McIntyre and others ultimately show that the
GISS has fudged their temperature
data sets in order to show more
warming than actually occurred (as I believe will happen), then I assume Hansen would agree that he should also go on trial.
Meaning that when
GISS (the thing hansen «adjusts») gets out of sync with say the CRU
data base they simply «adjust», pretty always taking the
warmer and running with that.
The UAH satellite
data, however, shows less than half the
warming of the smallest of the surface datasets (
GISS), about 40 % of the Jones
warming, and about a quarter of the GHCN
warming.
But, the parallel
warming of the KOE and the Gulf Stream Extension during the transitions from El Niño to La Niña events would help to reduce the KOE scaling factor required to explain the step changes in the adjusted
GISS LOTI
data.
This is tatamount to a rejection of democracy as a form of human governance on grounds of being intrinsically inadequate to counter the global
warming evidence
GISS claims to be there, in their US
data.
Someone is bound to complain that I've deleted the Arctic
data from the
GISS LOTI
data and that the Arctic is
warming much faster than lower latitudes.
At issue was NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (
GISS)
data, which showed profound
warming across a swath of territory from Paraguay to Brazil.
Chris V. CO2 goes up, temp goes down, oceans cool, sea levels decrease, arctic sea ice is within 1979 -2000 mean, AGW theory of catastrophic
warming is B U S T... Even the fraudulent manipulation of the
GISS data set does not change that.
They find about 0.25 °C less Arctic
warming during the past decade than in the
GISS analysis, a difference that they attribute to our method of interpolating and extrapolating
data, especially into the Arctic Ocean regions where no station
data are available.
So the infilled
GISS data, which extends out over the Arctic, would show the greater
warming since the 1970s... until the
warming stops for Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures and for the low - to - mid latitude land surface air temperatures.
GISS data in the Arctic and Southern Oceans, therefore, would exaggerate the
warming in both polar oceans.
Assuming the spatial patterns of the
warming shown by the
GISS LOTI
data are close to being correct, then the differences with the lower troposphere
data appear to show that lower troposphere temperature
data would be of questionable value for infilling the HADCRUT4
data.
So the additional the
warming of the infilled
GISS data before 1995 and the slowing afterwards (Figure 5) appears to make sense.
The average of the NASA
GISS, NOAA, and HadCRUT4 global surface temperature
data sets shows a 0.08 °C
warming from 2000 through 2011 (Figures 1 and 3).
Curiously, since 1997, the UAH lower troposphere temperature
data shows less
warming in the Arctic than the
GISS and HADCRUT4
data.
For example, Figure 7 illustrates the
warming and cooling rates of the HADCRUT4
data, and as a reference, the
GISS LOTI
data, for the period of January 1997 to December 2012... the hiatus period.
NASA
GISS obtain much of their temperature
data from the NOAA who adjust the
data to filter out primarily time - of - observation bias (although their corrections also include inhomogeneities and urban
warming - more on NOAA adjustments).
As the science continues to mount up against AGW (i.e. latest Aqua satellite
data supporting «negative» feedback and
GISS, UAH, RSS, Hadley
data showing no
warming since 1998 and a trend towards cooling), I see «doubters» getting rounder and rounder, and Pachauri, Gore, Hansen, et al getting flatter and flatter.
And to determine the true historical significance of the used to be
warming, we have to go back way before
GISS data.
Also, both the CRU and
GISS data show a similar
warming trend of 0.6 C / century.
Indeed it really looks like HADCRUT4
data corrections have been designed to reduce the gap with
GISS / NCDC
data, and of course to significantly reduce the decline of
warming rate over the past 20 years.
Here's something interesting... using either HADCRUT4 or NASA /
GISS data, redraw an 1880 - 2013 global temperature graph MINUS the record
warm 1998 signal (and if you want also take out the following 1999 cold phase as well since it is all part of one ENSO wave).
The
GISS data for e.g. the USA has changed materially over time in such a way as to reduce the mid-century
warm period and change the shape of the graph — is this «correction» valid?
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director Gavin Schmidt, the climatologist behind the
GISS data and the latest «
warmest on record» claim, knew before sending out his press release that even based on his own dubious
GISS data, 2014 was probably not the
warmest on record.
there is indeed limited argument regarding recent
warming as long as the discussion is based on «official» global
data bases; as soon as you consider a) all «comments» on
data quality and significance, temperature
data as included in GHCN, Crutem,
Giss are heavily contested by experts from more than 15 countries, including «smaller» countries like he US, Canada, the entire Northern Europe, Russia....
The margin of error on the
data is at least 0.1 degrees above or below, meaning that even the dubious
GISS «
warmest on record»
data showed the «
warmest on record» by such a tiny margin as to be literally statistically and scientifically irrelevant.
If the rest of the US states have as much adjustment,
GISS won't need to homogenize the station
data to show «unprecedented
warming.»
What do
warmers such as Hanson /
Giss do, well, they compare
data from a highly UHI contaminated urban city weather station with CLEAN
data from a neighbouring RURAL station.
Only the
Giss data set and ones like it such as the Hadcrut show
warming and that only after making plugs of thousands of missing
data temperatures.
Only the
Giss data set and ones like it such as the Hadcrut show
warming and that only after making plugs of thousands of missing
data temperatures and temperatures lower than surrounding temperatures which could be all plugs.
On average relatively strong Arctic
warming has occurred (rather than cooling) as indicated both by the
GISS and DMI
data.
«We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records from
GISS (NASA) with the 100 - year period covering 1906 - 2005 and the two 50 - year periods from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005... The
data document a strong urban heat island eff ect (UHI) and a
warming with increasing station elevation... About a quarter of all the records for the 100 - year period show a fall in temperatures... that the observed temperature records are a combination of long - term correlated records with an additional trend, which is caused for instance by anthropogenic CO2, the UHI or other forcings... As a result, the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40 % and 90 %, depending on the stations characteristics and the periods considered.»
Note: The highest trend in the later epoch of the
GISS - based «change
data» is about 5 % higher than the highest trend in the earlier
warming period.
Of the available
data sets, the
GISS figures show the strongest recent
warming.
In attempting to capture arctic temperatures, he relies on interpolation that does not make much sense when we are talking about sparse real
data... and the fact that
GISS shows much stronger
warming in the arctic then the other
data - sets (which I might add have more stations in the arctic) goes to show that there is this taking place.
Both NASA
GISS and NOAA NCEI use NOAA's ERSST.v4 «pause buster»
data for the ocean surface temperature components of their combined land - ocean surface temperature datasets, and, today, both agencies are holding a multi-agency press conference to announce their «
warmest ever» 2016 global surface temperature findings.
For example, see this post by tamino, which shows that the global
warming trend since 1975 is roughly 0.17 + / - 0.04 °C per decade in
data from NASA
GISS (Figure 2).
[ISPM 2.1 d] This seems to suggest that 1998 was the peak year in all three
data sets, whereas in fact 2005 was the
warmest year in the instrumental record for both
GISS and NCDC.
From the
GISS data, you can say «the earth is currently
warming at 1 degree / century, and it'll be getting
warming twice that fast a year from now if we don't do anything» with a good deal of confidence.