You can critique it all you like, but the GISS dTs data is not the «current»
GISTEMP dataset.
And since it is not the «current»
GISTEMP dataset, your critiques have little to no meaning in discussions of land plus ocean datasets» (You then describe the well known components of LOTI)
There is some internal evidence to support the «hot Arctic» of
the GISTEMP dataset, particularly from the isolated Arctic stations of the HadCRUT3 dataset.
The GISTEMP dataset provides gridded global temperature estimates covering almost the entire planet over recent decades: This data allows us to estimate the effect of poor coverage in the other datasets.
How is the UAH temperature trend (measured in lower troposphere) recalculated to absolute degrees, to replace
GISTEMP dataset (ground stations, 2m above ground)?
You're assuming that Hansen's projections use the same baseline as the current
GISTEMP dataset, which is 1951 - 1980.
The same index is then calculated for the 2005 - 2014 period and the historical 1880 - 2000 period in the HadCRUT4 and
GISTEMP datasets.
Not exact matches
We also checked that using different observational
datasets (NOAA, Berkeley,
GISTEMP) gave similar results (results shown in Extended Data).
Because
GISTEMP, NCDC and HadCRUT3 are all using current generation SST
datasets, and HadCRUT4 is using a next generation SST product with additional bias corrections.
Of the four
datasets,
GISTEMP (red line) shows the fastest warming.
Running 60 - month averages of European air temperature at a height of two metres over land (left - hand axis) according to different
datasets: ERA - Interim (Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF);
GISTEMP (NASA); HadCRUT4 (Met Office Hadley Centre), NOAAGlobalTemp (NOAA); and JRA - 55 (JMA).
The NASA
GISTEMP record is the most detailed of the four
datasets, with grid boxes two degrees longitude by two degrees latitude.
Running 60 - month averages of global air temperature at a height of two metres (left - hand axis) and estimated change from the beginning of the industrial era (right - hand axis) according to different
datasets: ERA - Interim (Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF);
GISTEMP (NASA); HadCRUT4 (Met Office Hadley Centre), NOAAGlobalTemp (NOAA); and JRA - 55 (JMA).
Upper panel: Changes in global surface temperature over the period 1900 - 2003 associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the
GISTEMP and ERSST
datasets.
Let's compare the ccc -
gistemp analysis using the ISTI Stage 3
dataset versus using the GHCN - M QCU
dataset.
Changes in global surface temperature between 1900 and 2003 associated with the long - term global warming trend in two different
datasets,
GISTEMP and ERSST.
The HadSST2
dataset was used in the widely quoted HadCRUT3 temperature record, as well as forming the basis for an interpolated record, HadISST, which is used along with ERSST in NASA's
GISTEMP record.
Yet he is the keeper of the most oft cited temperature
dataset in the world:
GISTEMP.
The use of READER data in the
GISTEMP analysis makes it much more useful for our study than the NOAA and HadCRUT3v
datasets.
Note that the
datasets show different quantities; in the sea ice zone the
GISTEMP, M10 and CHAPMAN data represent air temperature (though CHAPMAN air temperatures are inferred from SST input data); north of the sea ice edge the M10 and CHAPMAN data represent air temperature while
GISTEMP represents SST; MSU represents tropospheric - average temperatures everywhere.
Certainly, over 1979 - 2015 both the adjusted ERA - interim and HadCRUT4v4
datasets showed a slightly higher trend in global temperature (of respectively 0.166 and 0.165 °C / decade) than did
GISTEMP (0.162 °C / decade).
The result is that if you reduce the coverage of
GISTEMP to match HadCRUT3, the bulk of the difference between the two
datasets disappears.
There are three main versions of the instrumental temperature record, HadCRUT3 from the UK meteorological office,
GISTEMP from NASA, and the NCDC
dataset from NOAA.
The
GISTEMP result differs because
GISTEMP covers the polar regions missing from the other
datasets.
Note that when the
GISTEMP data is masked to reduce the coverage to match one of the other
datasets, the resulting temperature trend is a good match for the trend in the incomplete
dataset.
Thus the lower trends of the incomplete HadCRUT3 and NCDC
datasets provide no evidence against higher trend of the more complete
GISTEMP data.
You can attack the HADCRU
dataset all you want, but we still have
GISTEMP and NCDC giving the SAME graphs, models, scales, pictures, account, projections and forecasts.
The graph is based on ERA - Interim and four other
datasets: JRA - 55 produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),
GISTEMP produced by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), HadCRUT4 produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and NOAAGlobalTemp produced by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Anyone who uses
GISTEMP data should be well - versed about what goes into the
dataset.
It is an archive of the
GISTEMP station record from Nov 2011 when we discontinued the use of NCDCs GHCNv2
dataset and is provided only as a historical facility.
Aug. 15, 2017: The standard
GISTEMP analysis now uses the ERSST version 5
dataset for sea surface temperatures, rather than ERRST v. 4.
There is an option to create maps of the differences between two
datasets using the KNMI Climate Explorer, but, first, there isn't an option for selecting the base years as I had for these maps, and, second, I haven't been able to make the option work comparing surface temp (
GISTEMP or NCDC) and UAH TLT.
Having MOHSST in your average would be like including an incomplete GHCN
dataset in an average of NCDC, CRUTEM, and
GISTEMP land surface data.