For Figure 1, global mean temperatures are plotted from the HadCRUT4 and
GISTEMP products relative to a 1900 - 1940 baseline, together with global mean temperatures from 81 available simulations in the CMIP5 archive, also relative to the 1900 - 1940 baseline, where all available ensemble members are taken for each model.
First, a graph showing the annual mean anomalies from the CMIP3 models plotted against the surface temperature records from the HadCRUT4, NCDC and
GISTEMP products (it really doesn't matter which).
Take
the GISTEMP product for instance.
Fig. 1 (b) shows that the anomaly between observations and the CMIP5 mean temperature response to cumulative emissions is halved by repeating the Millar analysis with
the GISTEMP product instead of HadCRUT.
Not exact matches
The data presented in this case included both surface analyses (
GISTEMP, NCDC, and HadCRUT3) in addition to satellite
products for the lower troposphere (Microwave Sounding Unit — MSU).
The differences in the two
products (HadCRUT3v and
GISTEMP) are mostly a function of coverage and extrapolation procedures where there is an absence of data.
Plotting these temperatures as anomalies (by removing the mean over a common baseline period)(red lines) reduces the spread, but it is still significant, and much larger than the spread between the observational
products (
GISTEMP, HadCRUT4 / Cowtan & Way, and Berkeley Earth (blue lines)-RRB-:
Because
GISTEMP, NCDC and HadCRUT3 are all using current generation SST datasets, and HadCRUT4 is using a next generation SST
product with additional bias corrections.
> HadCRUT4 is different from the most closely comparable
products (e.g. NASA
GISTEMP and NOAA MLOST) in that no interpolation is performed.
It is based on the replication of the legacy
GISTEMP procedure that was the first
product of the Clear Climate Code Project by Nick Barnes and colleagues.
Sampling biases are easy to see in the difference between the
GISTEMP surface temperature data
product (which extrapolates over the Arctic region) and the HADCRUT3v
product which assumes that Arctic temperature anomalies don't extend past the land.