(BTW, if I've correctly extended Gavin's test in the above link through 2009, the Scenario B trend in Hansen 1988 has now drifted just outside the error estimate of the lower
GISTEMP record.
As there is no question the Arctic has warmed faster than anywhere else, with huge cracks appearing for the first time in recorded history in old ice across the cap just recently, and with last year's record melt and the winter recovery well below the average for the 29 years satellite data has been collected,
the GISTEMP record may be given more credence.
The HadSST2 dataset was used in the widely quoted HadCRUT3 temperature record, as well as forming the basis for an interpolated record, HadISST, which is used along with ERSST in NASA's
GISTEMP record.
The NASA
GISTEMP record is the most detailed of the four datasets, with grid boxes two degrees longitude by two degrees latitude.
We assumed that in addressing the coverage bias in HadCRUT4 we would bring it into agreement with
the GISTEMP record from NASA.
In NOAA analysis, 2014 is a record by about 0.04 ºC, while the difference in
the GISTEMP record was 0.02 ºC.
The data for the original three temperature records along with the two masked
GISTEMP records may be downloaded as a spreadsheet file for further study.
Not exact matches
The time evolution of the Northern Hemisphere mean for the two data sets is shown in the lower panel, showing a good agreement over most of the
record, but with slightly higher
GISTEMP estimates over the last 10 years (the global mean was not shown because my computer didn't have sufficient memory for the complete analysis, but the two data sets also show similar evolution in e.g. the IPCC AR4).
First, a graph showing the annual mean anomalies from the CMIP3 models plotted against the surface temperature
records from the HadCRUT4, NCDC and
GISTEMP products (it really doesn't matter which).
You stated «The red line is the annual global - mean
GISTEMP temperature
record (though any other data set would do just as well),...
The high anomalies up in the Arctic continue for a third month in
GISTEMP and the question of the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent is surely now only by how much this freeze season will be below the
record low set in 2017.
# 10 Paul «One thing that seems potentially new and interesting from their results (and that I haven't seen many comments on) is the fact that their global
record goes back about 50 more years than CRU and 80 more years than
GISTEMP by starting with the year 1800.
By coincidence, yesterday was also the scheduled update for the
GISTEMP July temperature release, and because July is usually the warmest month of the year on an absolute basis, a
record in July usually means a
record of absolute temperature too.
2018 is the 11th warmest February on
record (= 6th in
GISTEMP), the top eleven being 2016, 2017, 2015, 1998, 2002, 2004, 2010, 1995, 1999, 2007, 2018.
It's incredibly hypocritical of global warming denialists to whine that compilations of global temperature anomaly like
GISTEMP have large distances between
recording stations and this makes them an inaccurate estimate of global anomaly and then we have a global warming denialist extraordinaire, Roberts, claim that a SINGLE locality, Central England, can provide an adequate estimate of global anomaly.
One thing that seems potentially new and interesting from their results (and that I haven't seen many comments on) is the fact that their global
record goes back about 50 more years than CRU and 80 more years than
GISTEMP by starting with the year 1800.
The time evolution of the Northern Hemisphere mean for the two data sets is shown in the lower panel, showing a good agreement over most of the
record, but with slightly higher
GISTEMP estimates over the last 10 years (the global mean was not shown because my computer didn't have sufficient memory for the complete analysis, but the two data sets also show similar evolution in e.g. the IPCC AR4).
GISTEMP has posted for January, kicking off the new year with a global anomaly of +0.78 ºC, the 5th warmest January on
record after 2016 (+1.16 ºC), 2017 (+0.97 ºC), 2007 (+0.95 ºC) and 2015 (+0.81 ºC).
As is usual, today marks the release of the «meteorological year» averages for the surface temperature
records (
GISTEMP, HadCRU, NCDC).
For the
GISTEMP and HadCRUT3, the trends are 0.19 + / -0.05 and 0.18 + / -0.04 ºC / dec (note that the
GISTEMP met - station index has 0.23 + / -0.06 ºC / dec and has 2010 as a clear
record high).
In absolute probability terms, NOAA calculated that 2014 was ~ 48 % likely to be the
record versus all other years, while for
GISTEMP (because of the smaller margin), there is a higher change of uncertainties changing the ranking (~ 38 %).
In particular, the characters visit Punta Arenas (at the tip of South America), where (very pleasingly to my host institution) they have the
GISTEMP station
record posted on the wall which shows a long - term cooling trend (although slight warming since the 1970's).
we can see clearly that while K08 projected 0.06 ºC cooling, the temperature
record from HadCRUT (which was the basis of the bet) shows 0.07 ºC warming (using
GISTEMP, it is 0.11 ºC).
GISS, didn't seem to have a problem in relying on those first ten years when it constructed it's first
GISTEMP temperature
record in 1987 with
records from 1951 - 1980.
Dr Watts, you may be pleased to know that my column today in the London Sunday Telegraph, covering the
GISTemp story and your admirable part in it, has attracted a
record number of comments, almost all supportive.
«There are three main global temperature histories: the combined CRU - Hadley
record (HADCRU), the NASA - GISS (
GISTEMP)
record, and the NOAA
record.
The NASA
GISTEMP global average surface temperature data have been updated to include January 2016, which had the largest monthly temperature anomaly ever
recorded: 1.13 °C elsius above the 1951 - 1980 baseline.
The
records of annual temperatures were obtained from NASA (
GISTEMP).
«Obviously the
GISTEMP [Goddard Institute for Space Studies Temperature] analysis is independent of that and
records or trends in its index stand alone,» Schmidt told The New American at the time, though most of the establishment media seemingly never got the memo or bothered to ask the question.
In the US, the
GISTEMP series comes via the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS), while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) creates the MLOST
record.
But what we actually found was a surprise - our infilled
record showed rather faster warming than
GISTEMP.
And if you look at zonal temperature
records (ie
GISTemp below), the place with the big temperature during the early 20th century was the high northern latutudes that do conveniently have ample ice to melt.
The effect is illustrated in Figure 1: The first graph is from the NASA
GISTEMP temperature
record, while the second uses the adjusted data of Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) which removes some of the short term variations from the signal.
Some of these
records go back to the early 1800's, though
GISTemp only posts
records going -LSB-...]
Figure 2 shows the number of station
records available for each month in both the existing GHCN - Monthly data (used as the basis for reconstructions by
GISTemp / NCDC / CRUTEM) and the new Berkeley data.
Contrary to popular conception, the - only - adjustments
GISTemp makes to individual land station
records (with two small exceptions) are to correct for UHI.
'' Zeke Hausfather says: August 12, 2010 at 2:27 pm Contrary to popular conception, the - only - adjustments
GISTemp makes to individual land station
records are to correct for UHI.
The
GISTEMP (NASA) data for July 2016 came out a few days ago and the
records keep falling.
It has no bearing on the
record since the
record for
GISTEMP is 2005.
Since 2005 is the current
record year for
GISTEMP, why are you using 1998 as your reference in the first illustration?
Bob Tisdale says: August 20, 2010 at 2:04 am Steven: Isn't 2005 the current
record high year for
GISTEMP?
GISTEMP (NASA), which includes the polar regions (extrapolated), has 2005 as the hottest year on
record.
There are three main versions of the instrumental temperature
record, HadCRUT3 from the UK meteorological office,
GISTEMP from NASA, and the NCDC dataset from NOAA.
It is an archive of the
GISTEMP station
record from Nov 2011 when we discontinued the use of NCDCs GHCNv2 dataset and is provided only as a historical facility.
Having a quick look at it, a good starting point would be to compare the CO2 - rise with, say,
GISTEMP, as the SAT
records have similar characteristics to the CO2 - rise data from MLO.
It is 5th warmest March on
record (6th in
GISTEMP, = 6th in UAH, RSS 5th), in NOAA behind March 2016 (+1.23 ºC), 2017 (+1.02 ºC), 2015 (+0.90 ºC), 2010 (+0.85 ºC).
These are both defendable choices, but when calculating global mean anomalies in a situation where the Arctic is warming up rapidly, there is an obvious offset between the two
records (and indeed
GISTEMP has been trending higher).
CarbonBrief have projected the full 2018
GISTEMP anomaly from the Jan - to - March data and found it suggests 2018 will be 4th hottest year on
record with a 95 % confidence range of 2nd to = 7th.
March 2018 sits as = 26th highest NOAA anomaly on -
record for all - months (
GISTEMP = 20th, = 74th in UAH, RSS 52nd).
March 2018 sits as = 20th highest
GISTEMP anomaly on -
record for all - months (= 74th in UAH, RSS 52nd).