[2] The Historical simulations have an average temperature anomaly of 0.84 °C for 1996 — 2005 relative to 1850, whereas HadCRUT4v4 shows an increase of 0.73 °C from 1850 — 1859 to 1996 — 2005, and Figure 7 of Miller et al. 2014 shows consistently greater warming for GISS - E2 - R than per
GISTEMP since 2000.
If you think a graph of
GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing global temperature then there is no point discussing further.
Chris O'Neill, If you think a graph of
GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing global temperature then there is no point discussing further
Not exact matches
In the graphs in my article above I used the standard
GISTEMP baseline of 1951 - 1980
since it only discusses the temperature evolution
since ~ 1950, so this seems an appropriate baseline for that discussion.
As is well known, the 10 - year trend
since the large El Nino is flat in HadCRUT and only 0.1 deg C / decade in
GISTEMP.
GISTemp will most likely show «statistically significant» global warming
since October 1998.
In particular, the characters visit Punta Arenas (at the tip of South America), where (very pleasingly to my host institution) they have the
GISTEMP station record posted on the wall which shows a long - term cooling trend (although slight warming
since the 1970's).
The series is only 42 data points long (equating to 126 years), so is hardly robust, however, it may be a useful predictor of future temps
since it is
gistemp that lags the SST.
gistemp trend vs. uah trend
since 1998 http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998/trend/plot/
gistemp/from:1998/trend
Posts at RealClimate (here) and at SkepticalScience (here) looked on the paper as the second coming of... errr... Hansen's
GISTEMP maybe, saying Cowtan and Way (2013) proved the UKMO HADCRUT4 data underreports by half the warming of global surface temperatures
since 1997.
The GISS homepage formerly said: The NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (
GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period
since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was established.
We can see that the long term trend shows a similar steady rise in all four series
since about 1980, albeit slightly steeper in the two interpolated series, NASA
GISTEMP and Cowtan and Way.
The NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (
GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period
since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was established.
Since then I have learnt that they operated in collusion with
GISTEMP and NCDC.
It has no bearing on the record
since the record for
GISTEMP is 2005.
So,
GISTemp is down 0.045 C
since July 1998 taking into account the most important natural factors we know about (not up 0.24 C as predicted by the IPCC).
Since 2005 is the current record year for
GISTEMP, why are you using 1998 as your reference in the first illustration?
Since (using
GISTEMP) global temperatures went up by about 0.5 C during this period, one would say that natural variability and anthropogenic forcing each accounted for about 0.25 C of warming.
You know better than most that 2 months ago
GIStemp revamped their processing and now include USHCN.v2 stations (that they did not until 15 November 2009,
since USHCN «cut off» in May of 2007, there were, effectively, a few thousand stations «put back in» via that move).
So, with
GISTEMP being normalized to NMAT
since ERSST4, Huang15 via Karl15 added a spurious ~ 5 % bias to observed decadal GMST trend.
inv file doesn't have the night - time satellite brightness that
GISTEMP uses in its analysis (globally,
since 2010-01-16).
And
since it is not the «current»
GISTEMP dataset, your critiques have little to no meaning in discussions of land plus ocean datasets» (You then describe the well known components of LOTI)
Converting the anomalies to the actuals,
GIStemp in 2002 had Global Mean temperature in 1880 at 13.89 oC, and by March 2010 this had fallen to 13.76 oC, i.e. colder, not warmer, as your comment claims, thereby exaggerating the apparent warming
since 1880.