For the HadCRUT4 and
GISTEMP temperature anomaly series, was estimated using a Politis - Romano stationary bootstrap (because the series data are interdependent) giving.
The effect is illustrated in Figure 1: The first graph is from the NASA
GISTEMP temperature record, while the second uses the adjusted data of Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) which removes some of the short term variations from the signal.
GISS, didn't seem to have a problem in relying on those first ten years when it constructed it's first
GISTEMP temperature record in 1987 with records from 1951 - 1980.
You stated «The red line is the annual global - mean
GISTEMP temperature record (though any other data set would do just as well),...
Not exact matches
The 2015
temperatures continue a long - term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (
GISTEMP).
But
GISTEMP does not really have a better empirical basis in the Arctic, but the effect from the extrapolation (the filling in of values where there is missing data) gives the recent high Arctic
temperatures more weight.
A comparison between
temperatures over the most recent available 30 - year period (1978 - 2007) shows high
temperatures over parts of Russia (Figure below — upper left panel), and the difference between the
GISTEMP and HadCRUT 3v shows a good agreement apart from around the Arctic rim and in some maritime sectors (upper right panel).
First, a graph showing the annual mean anomalies from the CMIP3 models plotted against the surface
temperature records from the HadCRUT4, NCDC and
GISTEMP products (it really doesn't matter which).
2011 was the 9th warmest year in the
GISTEMP global
temperature series.
A linear extrapolation over 1880 - 1980 of the
GISTEMP meteorological station series gives a
temperature anomaly of 0.2 K in 2012, much lower than the lowest curve drawn.
Fig. 1 Revision history of two individual monthly values for January 1910 and January 2000 in the
GISTEMP global
temperature data from NASA (Source: WUWT)
In the graphs in my article above I used the standard
GISTEMP baseline of 1951 - 1980 since it only discusses the
temperature evolution since ~ 1950, so this seems an appropriate baseline for that discussion.
Chris O'Neill, If you think a graph of
GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing global
temperature then there is no point discussing further
Figure caption: (upper left) HadCRUT 3V mean T (2m) anomaly over 1976 - 2005 (wrt to 1950 - 1980); (upper right) The GISS — HadCRUT 3V difference in mean T (2m) over 1976 - 2005; and (lower) the Northern Hemisphere mean
temperature variations (red =
GISTEMP, black = HadCRUT 3v).
NASA
GISTEMP is the obvious source of surface
temperature data.
But
GISTEMP does not really have a better empirical basis in the Arctic, but the effect from the extrapolation (the filling in of values where there is missing data) gives the recent high Arctic
temperatures more weight.
By coincidence, yesterday was also the scheduled update for the
GISTEMP July
temperature release, and because July is usually the warmest month of the year on an absolute basis, a record in July usually means a record of absolute
temperature too.
If you think a graph of
GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing global
temperature then there is no point discussing further.
One of our Google Summer of Code students is working on making a faster and more user - friendly ccc -
gistemp; one of the others is working on a new homogenization codebase (with input from Matt Menne, Claude Williams, and Peter Thorne), and the third is working on a web - facing common - era
temperature reconstruction system (mentored by Julien Emile - Geay, Jason Smerdon, and Kevin Anchukaitis).
So I don't think it is unreasonable to use HadCRUT for analyzing global
temperatures and not bother comparing the results to
GISTEMP.
It's incredibly hypocritical of global warming denialists to whine that compilations of global
temperature anomaly like
GISTEMP have large distances between recording stations and this makes them an inaccurate estimate of global anomaly and then we have a global warming denialist extraordinaire, Roberts, claim that a SINGLE locality, Central England, can provide an adequate estimate of global anomaly.
As is usual, today marks the release of the «meteorological year» averages for the surface
temperature records (
GISTEMP, HadCRU, NCDC).
Thus there are now two surface
temperature data sets with global coverage (the
GISTEMP data from NASA have always filled gaps by interpolation).
For Figure 1, global mean
temperatures are plotted from the HadCRUT4 and
GISTEMP products relative to a 1900 - 1940 baseline, together with global mean
temperatures from 81 available simulations in the CMIP5 archive, also relative to the 1900 - 1940 baseline, where all available ensemble members are taken for each model.
Although the HadCRUT4 forced Otto - style reconstruction suggests 2014
temperatures were less than the 25th percentile of the CMIP5 distribution, following the same procedure with
GISTEMP yields 2014
temperatures of 1.08 K — corresponding to the 58th percentile of the CMIP5 distribution.
Fig. 1 (b) shows that the anomaly between observations and the CMIP5 mean
temperature response to cumulative emissions is halved by repeating the Millar analysis with the
GISTEMP product instead of HadCRUT.
we can see clearly that while K08 projected 0.06 ºC cooling, the
temperature record from HadCRUT (which was the basis of the bet) shows 0.07 ºC warming (using
GISTEMP, it is 0.11 ºC).
As far as I can see you got the tied for 10th highest
GISTemp anomaly part right (I assume you have the Land - Ocean
Temperature Index in mind, not the land only numbers) but my spreadsheet disagrees with your claim that the average anomaly for 2013 to date would put it in 3rd place — I get 9th.
Plotting these
temperatures as anomalies (by removing the mean over a common baseline period)(red lines) reduces the spread, but it is still significant, and much larger than the spread between the observational products (
GISTEMP, HadCRUT4 / Cowtan & Way, and Berkeley Earth (blue lines)-RRB-:
A linear extrapolation over 1880 - 1980 of the
GISTEMP meteorological station series gives a
temperature anomaly of 0.2 K in 2012, much lower than the lowest curve drawn.
Posts at RealClimate (here) and at SkepticalScience (here) looked on the paper as the second coming of... errr... Hansen's
GISTEMP maybe, saying Cowtan and Way (2013) proved the UKMO HADCRUT4 data underreports by half the warming of global surface
temperatures since 1997.
I note with interest your calculation using
GISTEMP data, but unless you are committing to the belief that the current low
temperatures relative to trend represent an actual reduction in the trend rather than the effects of transient features such as ENSO fluctuations, using the actual
temperature value will lead to a poor estimate of the further evolution of the energy imbalance.
They show a rising global mean
temperature in the eighties and nineties when the satellites (both UAH and RSS),
GISTEMP and NCDC all show a horizontal global mean from 1979 to 1997.
Using the Foster and Rahmstorf adjusted
GISTEMP trend of 0.17 C / decade, we get a
temperature increase over three decades of 0.51 C, with short term fluctuations eliminated.
Citing the
GISTEMP global anomally as he does, that should indicate that he is talking about global
temperatures, but it turns out he is not.
What above the next (
GISTEMP) zone north, which includes the remaining part of the contiguous US but which has a slightly less dense station network and more volatile
temperature swings:
Short description: I propose a web - based tool supporting dynamic visualization of spatially and temporally variable surface
temperature data from ccc -
gistemp.
Global surface
temperature relative to 1880 - 1920 based on
GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data, cf. Hansen, J, R Ruedy, M Sato, and K Lo, 2010: Global surface
temperature change.
The GISS homepage formerly said: The NASA GISS Surface
Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was e
Temperature Analysis (
GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing global surface
temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was e
temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably global distribution of meteorological stations was established.
Coverage bias estimates are shown for both HadCRUT versions using the
GISTEMP land - ocean series and the UAH series to provide the
temperature maps.
Figure 5: Various best estimate global
temperature climate model predictions evaluated in the «Lessons from Past Climate Predictions» series vs.
GISTEMP (red).
«There are three main global
temperature histories: the combined CRU - Hadley record (HADCRU), the NASA - GISS (
GISTEMP) record, and the NOAA record.
CBDunkerson @ 4, I have previously caclulated that using the Mann 2008 EIV reconstruction and the 1736 - 1765 mean value as the «preindustrial» benchmark», the gives a preindustrial
temperature 0.12 C lower than using the
GISTEMP 1880 - 1909 mean.
Nothing happened for two years after the book came out but then, suddenly last fall, the big three of
temperature,
GISTEMP, HadCRUT, and NCDC, decided, in unison, to not show this fake warming any more.
The NASA
GISTEMP global average surface
temperature data have been updated to include January 2016, which had the largest monthly
temperature anomaly ever recorded: 1.13 °C elsius above the 1951 - 1980 baseline.
All the data in this essay come from
GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface
Temperature Analysis (
GISTEMP).
But
GISTEMP and NCDC have decided to become honest and their August release shows a revised section in the eighties and nineties with constant global
temperature, like it should be.
These are not unique to HadCRUT but are also found in
GISTEMP and NCDC
temperature curves.
We also used
GISTEMP global annual surface
temperature anomalies, and a 4 - month lag between MEI and
GISTEMP, consistent with the results in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011).
Figure 1: Difference in
temperature trends between
GISTEMP and the Cowtan and Way infilled
temperature data on the period 1997 - 2012 (i.e.
GISTEMP minus C&W).