At the same time
the GISTemp global temperatures must be in excess of 0.17 C greater than today (to get another 2.2 C by 2100).
GISTEMP global mean temperature and OSTIA observed SST anomalies for December 2015 relative to 1985 - 2013.
We also used
GISTEMP global annual surface temperature anomalies, and a 4 - month lag between MEI and GISTEMP, consistent with the results in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011).
The NASA
GISTEMP global average surface temperature data have been updated to include January 2016, which had the largest monthly temperature anomaly ever recorded: 1.13 °C elsius above the 1951 - 1980 baseline.
Several have attempted to correct your misunderstanding without success, so I don't know what else to try but an example, in fact real figures from
GISTEMP Global.
Citing
the GISTEMP global anomally as he does, that should indicate that he is talking about global temperatures, but it turns out he is not.
Fig. 1 Revision history of two individual monthly values for January 1910 and January 2000 in
the GISTEMP global temperature data from NASA (Source: WUWT)
2011 was the 9th warmest year in
the GISTEMP global temperature series.
Not exact matches
The time evolution of the Northern Hemisphere mean for the two data sets is shown in the lower panel, showing a good agreement over most of the record, but with slightly higher
GISTEMP estimates over the last 10 years (the
global mean was not shown because my computer didn't have sufficient memory for the complete analysis, but the two data sets also show similar evolution in e.g. the IPCC AR4).
GISTEMP assumes that the Arctic is warming as fast as the stations around the Arctic, while HadCRUT4 and NCDC assume the Arctic is warming as fast as the
global mean.
You stated «The red line is the annual
global - mean
GISTEMP temperature record (though any other data set would do just as well),...
Chris O'Neill, If you think a graph of
GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing
global temperature then there is no point discussing further
# 10 Paul «One thing that seems potentially new and interesting from their results (and that I haven't seen many comments on) is the fact that their
global record goes back about 50 more years than CRU and 80 more years than
GISTEMP by starting with the year 1800.
If you think a graph of
GISTEMP since 1880 is in any way empirical proof that there is a human component to the increasing
global temperature then there is no point discussing further.
So I don't think it is unreasonable to use HadCRUT for analyzing
global temperatures and not bother comparing the results to
GISTEMP.
It's incredibly hypocritical of
global warming denialists to whine that compilations of
global temperature anomaly like
GISTEMP have large distances between recording stations and this makes them an inaccurate estimate of
global anomaly and then we have a
global warming denialist extraordinaire, Roberts, claim that a SINGLE locality, Central England, can provide an adequate estimate of
global anomaly.
One thing that seems potentially new and interesting from their results (and that I haven't seen many comments on) is the fact that their
global record goes back about 50 more years than CRU and 80 more years than
GISTEMP by starting with the year 1800.
The time evolution of the Northern Hemisphere mean for the two data sets is shown in the lower panel, showing a good agreement over most of the record, but with slightly higher
GISTEMP estimates over the last 10 years (the
global mean was not shown because my computer didn't have sufficient memory for the complete analysis, but the two data sets also show similar evolution in e.g. the IPCC AR4).
GISTEMP has posted for January, kicking off the new year with a
global anomaly of +0.78 ºC, the 5th warmest January on record after 2016 (+1.16 ºC), 2017 (+0.97 ºC), 2007 (+0.95 ºC) and 2015 (+0.81 ºC).
CRU has 1998 as the warmest year but there are differences in methodology, particularly concerning the Arctic (extrapolated in
GISTEMP, not included in CRU) which is a big part of recent
global warmth.
GISTEMP assumes that the Arctic is warming as fast as the stations around the Arctic, while HadCRUT and NCDC assume the Arctic is warming as fast as the
global mean.
Thus there are now two surface temperature data sets with
global coverage (the
GISTEMP data from NASA have always filled gaps by interpolation).
[Response: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/
gistemp/FAQ.html «Q.Why is the number in the right hand corner of the
global maps sometimes different from the corresponding value from the
GISTEMP data files (tables and graphs)?
For Figure 1,
global mean temperatures are plotted from the HadCRUT4 and
GISTEMP products relative to a 1900 - 1940 baseline, together with
global mean temperatures from 81 available simulations in the CMIP5 archive, also relative to the 1900 - 1940 baseline, where all available ensemble members are taken for each model.
GISTemp will most likely show «statistically significant»
global warming since October 1998.
Posts at RealClimate (here) and at SkepticalScience (here) looked on the paper as the second coming of... errr... Hansen's
GISTEMP maybe, saying Cowtan and Way (2013) proved the UKMO HADCRUT4 data underreports by half the warming of
global surface temperatures since 1997.
They show a rising
global mean temperature in the eighties and nineties when the satellites (both UAH and RSS),
GISTEMP and NCDC all show a horizontal
global mean from 1979 to 1997.
Global surface temperature relative to 1880 - 1920 based on
GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data, cf. Hansen, J, R Ruedy, M Sato, and K Lo, 2010:
Global surface temperature change.
The GISS homepage formerly said: The NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (
GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing
global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably
global distribution of meteorological stations was established.
The apparent convergence in short term trends between HadCRUT4 and
GISTEMP arises primarily from changes in the HadSST data over areas which already had coverage, not through addressing the
global coverage issues.
Figure 5: Various best estimate
global temperature climate model predictions evaluated in the «Lessons from Past Climate Predictions» series vs.
GISTEMP (red).
«There are three main
global temperature histories: the combined CRU - Hadley record (HADCRU), the NASA - GISS (
GISTEMP) record, and the NOAA record.
But
GISTEMP and NCDC have decided to become honest and their August release shows a revised section in the eighties and nineties with constant
global temperature, like it should be.
The weather station data for NASA's
GISTEMP come from the
Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN - monthly version 3).
Running 60 - month averages of
global air temperature at a height of two metres (left - hand axis) and estimated change from the beginning of the industrial era (right - hand axis) according to different datasets: ERA - Interim (Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF);
GISTEMP (NASA); HadCRUT4 (Met Office Hadley Centre), NOAAGlobalTemp (NOAA); and JRA - 55 (JMA).
The
GISTEMP analysis was not affected by this error, i.e. none of the results, tables, maps, graphs about
global or regional means changed.
The NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (
GISTEMP) provides a measure of the changing
global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880, when a reasonably
global distribution of meteorological stations was established.
Upper panel: Changes in
global surface temperature over the period 1900 - 2003 associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the
GISTEMP and ERSST datasets.
The red squares show the portion of the remaining variation that is associated with the long - term
global warming trend in the
GISTEMP data, and the green circles show the corresponding long - term
global warming trend in the ERSST data.
Changes in
global surface temperature between 1900 and 2003 associated with the long - term
global warming trend in two different datasets,
GISTEMP and ERSST.
And more importantly, what happens to the
global averages when the
GIStemp code is fixed to handle the adjustments in a way that TRUE peer review shows is proper!
Figure 8 — 1 from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), «
Global Land - Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 Degrees Celsius,» at data.giss.nasa.gov /
gistemp / tabledata / GLB.
Since (using
GISTEMP)
global temperatures went up by about 0.5 C during this period, one would say that natural variability and anthropogenic forcing each accounted for about 0.25 C of warming.
Certainly, over 1979 - 2015 both the adjusted ERA - interim and HadCRUT4v4 datasets showed a slightly higher trend in
global temperature (of respectively 0.166 and 0.165 °C / decade) than did
GISTEMP (0.162 °C / decade).
The
GISTEMP dataset provides gridded
global temperature estimates covering almost the entire planet over recent decades: This data allows us to estimate the effect of poor coverage in the other datasets.
Well, this being a blog where I mostly write about ccc -
gistemp which computes
global temperature anomaly, maybe you can guess.
Global surface temperature relative to 1880 - 1920 based on
GISTEMP data.
There are three main
global land / ocean surface temperature series, produced by NOAA's National Climate Data Center (NCDC), NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (
GISTemp), and the UK's Hadley Center (HadCRUT).
Not that we think the Goddard Institute for Space Studies team are particularly good at establishing
global temperature or anomalies, at least no better than other industrious teams attempting to do the same thing, it's just that GISS's
GISTEMP is consistently delivering the warmest anomalies and accelerating away from the pack (well it is the house of Hansen, so - called «father of
global warming»...).
The
GISTEMP monthly
global temperature series was used for all temperature data.