Sentences with phrase «gmst over the historical period»

When the percentage is compared with similar companies within an industry, investors can assess those with higher income growth rates over a historical period, and gain a better idea of how profitable a company could be over time.

The recent paper by Kate Marvel and others (including me) in Nature Climate Change looks at the different forcings and their climate responses over the historical period in more detail than any previous modeling study.

Two things have changed in recent years — first, the temperature changes over the historical period are now more persistent, and so the trend in relation to the year - to - year variability has become more significant (this is still true even if you think there has been a «hiatus»).

Some people looked at parts of that work (for example, the lower right panel of Figure 1) and point out how the climate model oceans show a smooth and pretty much unbroken increase in heat content over the historical period.

This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS - E2 - R climate model, that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were biased low.

«[1] Projections of 21st century warming may be derived by using regression - based methods to scale a model's projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.

Gillett et al. derive the TCR by using a regression - based method to scale the model's projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.

They use a regression - based method to scale the model - projected warming up or down according to whether it under - or over-predicts the response to anthropogenic forcings over the historical period.

The prediction is initialised with the mean of the observed sea ice extent for September 2009 - 2013 and an ensemble prediction is created simply by adding all of the observed changes in the sea ice extent record from one September to the next over the historical period 1979 - 2013.

The model's GMST response to the (negative) LU iRF forcing over the historical period, relative to what it would have been if the same forcing had been caused by changing the CO2 concentration (its transient efficacy), was almost four.

It follows that the real effect of masking to HadCRUT4 coverage over the historical period is, in the southern extra-tropics, almost certainly the opposite of that simulated by CMIP5 models.

This new NASA paper builds upon those previous studies by better quantifying the efficiencies of different forcings over the historical period and the effect this has on energy budget approach climate sensitivity estimates.

They find that though corn yield has increased over the historical period, the sensitivity of the yields to drought stress has also increased and that the largest factor contributing to drought sensitivity are changes in vapour pressure deficit.

Together these two modes explain an average of 70 % of the interannual variability seen in model Hadley Cell width indices over the historical period.

C) How does a field researcher «know» what ground conditions existed over any historical period?

This approach allows us to examine what the models say about future warming relative to future emissions, without bringing in any potential model bias simulated over the historical period.

There is very high confidence that models reproduce the general features of the global - scale annual mean surface temperature increase over the historical period, including the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century, and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions...

In any event, Marvel use the single forcing runs to appraise how TCR and ECS estimated from observations over the historical period compare with actual, CO2 forced, TCR and ECS.

Marvel et al. reached this conclusion from analysing the response of the GISS - E2 - R climate model in simulations over the historical period (1850 — 2005) when driven by six individual forcings, and also by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» simulation.

Although Marvel et al. do not mention the very low efficacy of solar forcing in their simulations, this appears to have more effect on ERF efficacy for the sum of forcings over the historical period than does low volcanic efficacy.

They do this by simulations over the historical period (1850 — 2005) driven by individual forcings, and by all forcings together, the latter referred to as the «Historical» simulation.

Therefore, any theoretical possibility of changes like those in LU run 1 occurring in the real world seems irrelevant when estimating the effects of land use change on deriving TCR and ECS values from recorded warming over the historical period.

Hansen 2005 concluded that, at least for climate forcing agents over the historical period, Fs was a good measure of the effective forcing (the product of a forcing, however defined, and the efficacy taken relative thereto), notwithstanding that some forcings had different spatial distributions from others.

I find Shindell's results difficult to reconcile with the observed evolution of hemispherical and tropical temperatures relative to GMST over the historical period.

And the conclusion is, over the historical period, that we can not reproduce the actual observed evolution of snowpack over the region unless we introduce the human contribution to the chemistry of the atmosphere.

To help address these challenges, scientists run hurricane models calibrated with observations over the historical period to project future trends and understand the major factors driving these trends.

Not exact matches

Their newest paper uses historical data from multiple countries to show that an increase in the ratio of household debt to gross domestic product over a three - to - four - year period predicts a decline in economic growth.

James Monroe was the fifth president of the United States of America, known for presiding over the Era of Good Feelings (which sounds more like a Beach Boys song than a historical period).

And while NerdWallet emphasizes that past market performance doesn't guarantee you'll earn the average historical return of 10 % in the future, the value of investing in stocks over a long period of time is still significant.

The rollercoaster ride in oil prices over the past three years may be old hat to investors familiar with the commodity's historical sensitivity to macro events (see chart below), but oil price volatility is by no means endemic and several factors are now lining up to suggest a calmer period for crude may lie ahead.

This rally has been so strong that many global indices have gone up in a straight line, registering gains up to 300 % over that time period with volatility hitting historical lows.

Finally, if we assume a sustained explosion in productivity growth to 2.8 % annually, joining the highest quintile of historical U.S. productivity growth rates for any 8 - year period, and assuming an unemployment rate of just 4 % in 2024, the result would still be real U.S. GDP growth averaging just 3.2 % annually over the next 8 years.

The scenario model is pre-populated with data based on a large sample of U.S. public companies (more than 2,500 companies) over a seven - year period (2004 - 2011), as compiled by BoardEx.1 To access the pre-populated model calculations, click the Calculations / Historical data and Attrition data tabs in the Excel spreadsheet that you can download from this page.

Comparing historical UBS / Gallup investor optimism data to contemporaneous monthly S&P 500 index over the period February 1999 through December 2007, we find that... Keep Reading

Since the inception of the Fund (as well, of course, in long - term historical tests), our present approach to risk management has both added to returns and reduced volatility - not necessarily in any short period, but over the complete market cycle.

Spreads between corporate bond yields and swap rates and the premia on credit default swaps have fallen slightly over the period, and are very low by historical standards (Graph 44).

Using historical weekly survey data and weekly Wednesday - to - Wednesday dividend - adjusted returns for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) over the period July 2006 through mid-March 2017 (550 surveys), we find that: Keep Reading

In the charts below, you will be able to see the historical performance of the Fund over various periods.

Even though inflation has dropped to historical lows, it can eat away at your income over a long period.

If you look at historical market data, over two - thirds of the best 30 weeks, for example, have occurred in periods when market valuations were below their historical medians.

If one excludes the 1980 - 1997 period, the historical correlation between 10 - year Treasury yields and 10 - year prospective (and actual realized) equity returns is actually slightly negative over the past century, and is only weakly positive in post-war data.

In this book Bill Schultheis presents a simple investing plan built on establishing an investment portfolio of low cost index funds that, based on historical performance, will generate positive returns over a long time period (10 + years).

Either use the asset's historical annual rate of return over a 50 year time period or a risk free rate plus a reasonable premium.

Indeed, in historical perspective the figures for membership and attendance could easily be used to argue that the so - called conservative churches have been growing less spectacularly over the past 20 years than in the period from 1920 to 1965.

The historical data [11] listed in Table 2 shows that, in the face of nationally falling abortions, down to 92 \ % in 2009 versus 2000 levels, Planned Parenthood succeeded in growing its abortions by 68 \ %, government funding by 79 \ % and contraception distribution by 38 \ % over roughly the same period.

At bottom the Samaritans shared the fate of all those who, though appealing perhaps to age - old traditions, rebel against a situation that has evolved over a long period of time, and try to base their life on historical conditions which have long since disappeared.

The # 1m on paper profit for the financial year does not reflect that # 6.8 m was also spent on investment in the first team squad over the same time period, nor that historical liabilities totalling # 8.475 m had to be repaid.

When we look back at the historical data summarised in Figure 1 below, we find the period since the mid-1980s has been one in which successive governments have opted for small, year - to - year reductions in the growth of overall public spending, rather than greater reductions over a shorter period.

He points out that over that period Britain experienced a severe recession and a significant squeeze on living standards and yet industrial relations in Britain were generally good and the number of strikes were and still are low by historical standards.

Finally, Manning and colleagues pored over historical texts from Ptolemaic Egypt, comparing periods of unrest with the volcanic record in the ice cores.