As noted above, the ERSST.v4 data make up the ocean portion of the NOAA and
GISS global land + ocean surface temperature products.
Not exact matches
Figure 2:
Global land and ocean surface temperature from
GISS (red) and the Hadley Centre / Climatic Research Unit (blue) up to 2006.
Recent temperature measurements over the past 165 + years based on satellite, marine and
land instruments obtained and analyzed by HadCrut,
GISS, and Berkeley indicate
global temperatures have increased by approximately 1 degree C shown on Figure 7.
Figure 7: a, b d) plots of
global temperature in degrees C since 1850 from Hadcrut,
GISS, and Berkeley combined
land and ocean datasets.
I quantified the volcanic bias to account for about 0.04 C / decade of the 0.16 C / decade trend (
global GISS land + ocean starting 1979).
However, the CRU
global mean combined
land air / sea surface temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998 annual mean estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while
GISS indicates a lag of 0.02 C.
My amateur spreadsheet tracking and projecting the monthly NASA
GISS values suggests that while 2018 and 2019 are likely to be cooler than 2017, they may also be the last years on Earth with
global average
land and ocean surface temperature anomaly below 1C above pre-industrial average (using 1850 - 1900 proxy).
Global temperature short term oscillations (
GISS Land and
Land & Ocean) closely follow the AMO oscillations.
As I said before with exception of
GISS, the other four organizations who measure
global temperatures [
land + ocean] show the same cooling trend from 2002.
Figure of 400 ppm calculated using fossil fuel emissions from G. Marland et al., «
Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on
Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2007), and
land use change emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, «Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land - Use Changes,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., «Dangerous Human - Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,» Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,
land use change emissions from R. A. Houghton and J. L. Hackler, «Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from
Land - Use Changes,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., «Dangerous Human - Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,» Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,
Land - Use Changes,» in Trends: A Compendium of Data on
Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2002), with decay curve cited in J. Hansen et al., «Dangerous Human - Made Interference with Climate: A
GISS ModelE Study,» Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.
We can look at the impacts of the
GISS infilling method by subtracting the
global GISS land - ocean temperature index data with 250 km smoothing from the
GISS data with 1200 km smoothing.
The challenge will be settled using the NASA
GISS mean
global land surface temperatures for the conventional climate averaging period (defined by the World Meteorological Organization as 30 years) ending on December 31, 2016.
95 % confidence that 50 % of the warming since 1951 is due to some form of human activity is not likely to be falsified using «
Global» surface temperature since about 30 % of the warming is over
land and
GISS interprets high latitude and higher altitude warming as «surface» warming.
To see the problem, look at the different formats for the 5 major
global land & ocean temperature anomaly series:
GISS, RSS, Hadley, NOAA, UAH.
«A more accurate comparison of
global ocean /
land energy imbalances would be
GISS (since they use Arctic data), and ocean heat content down to 2000 meters.»
Both NASA
GISS and NOAA NCEI use NOAA's ERSST.v4 «pause buster» data for the ocean surface temperature components of their combined
land - ocean surface temperature datasets, and, today, both agencies are holding a multi-agency press conference to announce their «warmest ever» 2016
global surface temperature findings.
And the winners are:
GISS in the
global category and NOAA
land.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than
lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years
land temperatures for some series (NCDC and
GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse
global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that
lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than
lands, and because
lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a
global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the
global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small
global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
Figure 8 — 1 from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (
GISS), «
Global Land - Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 Degrees Celsius,» at data.
giss.nasa.gov / gistemp / tabledata / GLB.
Now the NOAA data comes in and confirms the
GISS data, and shows the http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2009/jun/
global.html
Global Highlights: Based on preliminary data, the globally averaged combined
land and sea surface temperature was the second warmest on record for June and the January - June year - to - date tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest on record.
NASA's «
GISS» temp uses
land and ocean - based thermometers which measure «different parts of the system [UHI affected parking lots, asphalt heat sinks, AC exhaust air vents], different signal to noise ratio [we bias toward warm stations], different structural uncertainty [we «homogenise» our data set to cool the past and warm the present to fit the
global warming narrative].»
Blue points: the
GISS 1999
land + sea
global surface air temperature record.
The blue points are the 1999 version of the
GISS land + sea
global average air temperature record.
Yes, BEST (which I showed) is
land and this rises faster than when you include oceans as in HADCRUT or
GISS global.
Steven All NCDC,
GISS and CRU use SST in their combined
land and sea
global temperature.
Actually I've reread Gavin's letter to Klotzbach a little more carefully and he gives the
GISS - ER figures: As might be expected, the
land temperatures rise faster than the
global mean or ocean values (0.26 deg C / dec vs. 0.17 deg C / dec and 0.14 deg C / dec) So
land to ocean trend ratios are:
GISS - ER: 1.9 (1979 - 2005) SAT obs (1979 - 2008) HadCru: 1.6 GisTemp: 2.3 NCDC: 2.8
Figure 6 shows the
global land surface air temperature plus sea surface temperature anomalies (average of
GISS LOTI, HADCRUT4 and NCDC datasets, like The Escalator) before, during and after the 1997/98 El Niño.
We attempted to apply irrigation realistically in space and time to the
land surface component of a
global atmosphere general circulation model, the
GISS ModelE, allowing the model to compute explicitly the water and energy dynamics of the
land surface.
In the case of Hadcrut temperature series they use around 35 - 40 %
land data when calculating
global data, but
GISS have a temperature product using roughly twice this fraction for
land area as fig 7 shows.