This conclusion takes into account the approximately 62 year period natural cycle in global average surface temperatures that is obvious in the HadCRUT4
global average surface temperature data, that had a maximum in about 1945 and again in about 2007, and that seems to be the cause of the current «pause» in global average surface temperatures.
«Why I Spend So Much Time and Effort on Climate Skepticism New Research Report on the Validity of
Global Average Surface Temperature Data and EPA's GHG Endangerment Finding»
The NASA GISTEMP
global average surface temperature data have been updated to include January 2016, which had the largest monthly temperature anomaly ever recorded: 1.13 °C elsius above the 1951 - 1980 baseline.
Not exact matches
Figure 2: The
data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
*
Surface temperature changes relative to 20th Century
global average (1901 - 2000) Source data NOAA - NCEI State of the Climate: Global Analysis [Web + data dow
global average (1901 - 2000) Source
data NOAA - NCEI State of the Climate:
Global Analysis [Web + data dow
Global Analysis [Web +
data download]
Fig. 4 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT
data), moving
average over 23 months to end of October 2016.
Fig. 5 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (HadCRUT
data), running
average over 37 months.
Using monthly -
averaged global satellite records from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP [5]-RRB- and the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in conjunction with Sea
Surface Temperature (SST)
data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric (NOAA) extended and reconstructed SST (ERSST) dataset [7] we have examined the reliability of long - term cloud measurements.
The C.R.U. is only one of several groups who are analyzing the long term
global average surface temperature trends drawing from mostly the same raw observed
data.
«The
average global temperature anomaly for combined land and ocean
surfaces for July (based on preliminary
data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term mean.
«Another recent paper used a different NOAA ocean
surface temperature data set to find that since 2003 the
global average ocean
surface temperature has been rising at a rate that is an order of magnitude smaller than the rate of increase reported in Karl's paper.»
Data from the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit for
global average near -
surface temperatures confirm that 2017 was the warmest year on record without the influence of warming from El Niño.
Data from the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit for
global average near -
surface temperatures conf Read more
The
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA, and HadCRUT4
global surface temperature data sets shows a 0.08 °C warming from 2000 through 2011 (Figures 1 and 3).
But the
data released today confirm that human - induced
global warming is pushing
temperatures higher at an alarming rate: 2014 was the previous record holder for
global average surface temperature, clocking in at 0.57 °C above the 1960 to 1990
average, but last year was 0.75 °C above that
average.
When he presented his misleading graph, when he said 97 % of climate scientists agree, (knowing full well the actual situation that the number is bogus and misleading,) when he mentions adjustments to satellite
data but not to
surface temperatures with major past cooling and absurd derived precision to.005 * C, when he defends precision in
surface global averages but ignores major estimates of temps and krigging in Arctic, Africa, Asia and oceans or Antarctica, he forfeits credibility.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling Observations of
Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's
surface is undoubtedly real, and
surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than
average for the past 100 years»
Back in 2009, by analysing the
data, I found that the
global average sea
surface temperature, the SST, stays fairly constant when the Sun is
averaging around 40 sunspots per month.
Changes in instrumentation and
data availability have caused time - varying biases in estimates of
global - and regional -
average sea -
surface temperature.
Figure 2: The
data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
There are a number of papers by Samuel S. Shen looking at the design of observing networks for estimating spherical harmonics with idealised
surface temperature distributions, but I'm not aware of the technique having been used to reconstruct
global average temperature using the real distribution of stations and
data.
There is a major question in my mind of the wisdom of using a «
global»
surface temperature to begin with and a «global» surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature to begin with and a «
global»
surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin averaged with a land based «Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
surface temperature based on a SST which is more related to Tmin
averaged with a land based «
Surface» temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the data that is ava
Surface»
temperature that is based on T Ave.. So instead of blindly quoting nonsense, I actually try to verify using all the
data that is available.
C. warmer than it was with respect to the start of the industrial revolution, I believe that it would be necessary to use actual
average global land - ocean
surface temperature data (which would be imperfectly known that far back).
The well below freezing
surface winter
temperatures of Northern high latitudes are such wildly variable almost non-correlated
data points which tell almost nothing of the real warming (i.e. increase in heat content of the Earth system) but may affect in an unpredictable way the
global average surface temperature.
The NOAA National Climatic
Data Center's annual summary posted on January 15 says: «The 2000 - 2009 decade is the warmest on record, with an
average global surface temperature of 0.54 deg C (0.96 deg F) above the 20th century
average.
Based on the Cohen et al paper it's likely that leaving out the most volatile
data series would in the present case result in a time series where warming continues with less plateauing than we see in the existing
data on
global average surface temperature.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47 The
data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red
The National Climatic
Data Center (NCDC), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has maintained
global average monthly and annual records of combined land and ocean
surface temperatures for more than 130 years.
The WMO's preliminary estimate, based on
data from January to October, shows that the
global average surface temperature for 2015 so far is around 0.73 °C above the 1961 - 1990
average of 14 °C, and approximately 1 °C above the pre-industrial 1880 - 1899 period.
Time series of seasonally
averaged global surface temperature (December 1879 — August 1999) based on the Quayle et al. (1999)
data set, computed as differences from the 1880 — 1998 mean.
Observed changes in (a)
global average surface temperature; (b)
global average sea level rise from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red)
data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March - April.
Parker (2004) segmented observed
surface temperature data into lighter and stronger wind terciles in order to assess whether the reported large - scale
global -
averaged temperature increases are attributable to urban warming.
Figure 3:
Global mean sea level variations (light line) computed from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter data compared with the global averaged sea surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to
Global mean sea level variations (light line) computed from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter
data compared with the
global averaged sea surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to
global averaged sea
surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to 1998.
According to the
data,
global average surface temperature was on a «mad dash» to extreme heat.
Now the NOAA
data comes in and confirms the GISS
data, and shows the http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2009/jun/
global.html
Global Highlights: Based on preliminary
data, the globally
averaged combined land and sea
surface temperature was the second warmest on record for June and the January - June year - to - date tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest on record.
As just one example; «How we can know an
average global sea
surface temperature back to 1850 when so much of the world was unexplored let alone its oceans measured» should be just one example that should make scientists question whether the models they build are actually using reliable
data, or whether they think they already know the answer and therefore just use
data that supports it, no matter its doubtful provenance.
Figure 1:
Global surface and lower atmosphere
temperature data from 5
data sets (with a 12 - month running
average) before and after applying the statistical methodology of Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) to remove the influences of ENSO and solar and volcanic activity.
Earth's
global average surface temperature has risen as shown in this plot of combined land and ocean measurements from 1850 to 2012, derived from three independent analyses of the available
data sets.
To achieve an
average surface air
temperature, or a
global mean
temperature, first establish a baseline for the measurements; and then weigh new
data against the base line.
(B) The
Global Average Surface Temperatures (GAST)
temperature data used in the GCMs have been manipulated by the climate alarmists to such an extent that the
data are no longer representative and therefore useful for this purpose.
The numbers are an
average of
temperature records from the three main
global surface data sets kept at the U.K.'s Hadley Center, at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as well as at NASA.
Global average temperature The mean
surface temperature of the Earth measured from three main sources: satellites, monthly readings from a network of over 3,000
surface temperature observation stations and sea
surface temperature measurements taken mainly from the fleet of merchant ships, naval ships and
data buoys.
To return to an earlier point I raised that a linear lapse rate mathematically translates a
temperature change at any altitude to other altitudes including the
surface, I remain interested in observational
data on linearity is terms of a flux - weighted
global average.
UAH
global temperatures trend equals
global sea
surface temperatures: The black temperature graph — average RSS+UAH satellite NH (Land + Sea)-- has a smaller warming trend than the other (brown) land data series — but in fact resembles the cooler Sea Surface Temperature
surface temperatures: The black
temperature graph — average RSS+UAH satellite NH (Land + Sea)-- has a smaller warming trend than the other (brown) land data series — but in fact resembles the cooler Sea Surface Tempera
temperature graph —
average RSS+UAH satellite NH (Land + Sea)-- has a smaller warming trend than the other (brown) land
data series — but in fact resembles the cooler Sea
Surface Temperature
Surface TemperatureTemperature trend.
Therefore, in contrast to the Jones et al. (2001)
global land -
surface air
temperature data, the
global land and sea
surface temperature data are not a simple
average of the hemispheres.
Global surface temperature (anomaly from 1960 - 1990
average) reconstructions for the past 9000 years (Marcott et al. 2013), for the past 2,000 years (PAGES 2k), and observed for the past 150 yrs (Instrumental
data from HadCRUT4) and the last 30 years (star).